Welcome to AMP

 

CMS scientists continue to explore innovative ways to evaluate the quality of CAM simulations. One of the more unique approaches recognizes that Numerical Weather Prediction frameworks can provide an excellent method of examining parameterization methods as it allows direct comparison of the parameterized variables (e.g. clouds, precipitation) with observations from field campaigns such as ARM early in the forecast while the forecast state is still near that of the atmosphere. In collaboration with staff members of PCMDI Williamson and Olson have developed the capability to apply the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) in forecast mode without developing a complete NWP forecast/analysis system. The forecasts are initialized from reanalyses or operational NWP analyses for the atmosphere with the land spun up to be consistent with the atmosphere. They have completed in depth studies of the CAM for several ARM IOPs, concentrating on moisture and cloud aspects of the forecasts. These studies have examined the balance of terms in the moisture and temperature prediction equations during the forecasts at the ARM CART site for different synoptic situations. Although these analyses can not attribute a unique mapping of forecast error to parameterization component deficiencies, they do identify which model components should be further examined to determine the cause of their anomalous behaviors.