DIRECTOR'S MESSAGE
 Maurice L.
Blackmon, CGD Director
The importance of global climate change was demonstrated at a recent meeting in
Washington, D. C. Scientists and a variety of
government officials, about 1600 people in all, met to discuss how to focus climate change
research in the U. S. and internationally. The
new Climate Change Research Initiative served as the focal point of the meeting. One of the desired outcomes of the Climate Change
Research Initiative will be to focus our research such that we can begin to answer some of
the important questions that our nation needs to have answered.
It is now widely acknowledged that human induced climate change is occurring. The remaining questions are more along the lines
of how can we adapt and how will this warming affect me in (fill in your home state or
city)? What to do about climate change is
also a major topic.
It is gratifying to me, a climate scientist, to know that the nation is interested
in the results of our research, but it is a daunting realization that the nation needs to
have information that we are trying to develop, but which we have not yet succeeded in
bringing to conclusion. At present, we have
to answer some questions with the words “We don’t know.” In some cases, we may have to say “We
can’t know.”
One common desire of citizens, legislators and policy makers concerns knowledge of
regional effects of global climate change. At
present, we know with some certainty that global change is occurring. There seems to be consistent evidence, from
modeling studies and observations, that the warming is occurring most strongly in high
northern latitudes, such as Alaska, Canada, Russia, etc.
However, in midlatitudes, such as the Great Plains of the U. S., the evidence is
less clear. Furthermore, model studies have
produced mixed, or even contradictory, results. At
present, we have no reliable way to predict the effects of climate change in smaller
regions, such as eastern Kansas, and we don’t even know if such a prediction is
possible. Meanwhile, people want to know how
global change will affect them, their community, their region, etc. At present, we don’t know, and maybe we
can’t know in principle. Maybe we will
only be able to make general predictions for relatively large areas, such as the Midwest,
the East, the Rocky Mountain West, etc.
One major concern in global change is possible change in the hydrological cycle. Will we have more or less precipitation? Where will these changes most likely occur? Will there be other important changes, such as
changes in precipitation intensity, that is, more or less intense events? Will increased temperatures contribute to drier
soil conditions? If so, what will be the
effects on ecosystems, agriculture, urban infrastructure?
At present, these questions have no reliable answers. Scientists in CGD, plus colleagues in other parts
of NCAR, are developing a research initiative to study these and related questions. We hope that this research will play a major role
in the Climate Change Research Initiative, and contribute important information that
policy makers can use for our mutual benefit. |
