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Contents | Director's
Message | Executive Summary | Narratives
of Divisional Activities | Publications | |
PublicationsREFEREED university
collaborators (bold) and Anderson, J., *V. Balaji, *A. J. Broccoli, *W. F. Cooke, *T. L. Delworth, *K. W. Dixon, *L. J. Donner, *K. A. Dunne, *S. M. Freidenreich, *S. T. Garner, *R. G. Gudgel, *C. T. Gordon, *I. M. Held, *R. S. Hemler, *L. W. Horowitz, *S. A. Klein, *T. R. Knutson, *P. J. Kushner, *A. R. Langenhorst, *N. -C. Lau, *Z. Liang, *S. L. Malyshev, *P. C. D. Milly, *M. J. Nath, *J. J. Ploshay, *V. Ramaswamy, *M. D. Schwarzkopf, *E. Shevliakova, *J. J. Sirutis, *B. J. Soden, *W. F. Stern, *L. A. Thompson, *R. John Wilson, *A. T. Wittenberg, and *B. L. Wyman, 2003: The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2/LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations. J. Climate, in press. *Abarca del Rio, R., *D. Gambis, *D. Salstein, *P. Nelson, and A. Dai, 2003: Solar activity and earth rotation variability. J. Geodynamics, 36, 423443. Adams J. B., M. E. Mann, C. M. Ammann, 2003: Proxy evidence for an El Niņo-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature, 426, 274-278. Ammann C. M., P. Naveau, 2003: Multi-decadal periodicity in tropical explosive volcanism and its influence on climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(5), 1210, doi:10.1029/2002GL016388. Ammann, C., G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, and C. Zender, 2003: A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulations of 20th century climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 10.1029/2003GL016875. Ammann C. M., J. T. Kiehl, C. S. Zender, B. L. Otto-Bliesner and R. S. Bradley, 2003: Coupled simulations of the 20th century including external forcing. J. Climate, in press. *Barnett, T., *R. Malone, *W. Pennell, *D. Stammer, *A. Semtner, and W. Washington, 2003: The effects of climate change on water resources in the west: Introduction and Overview. Climatic Change, in press. Branstator, G. and *J. Frederiksen, 2003: The seasonal cycle of interannual variability and the dynamical imprint of the seasonally varying mean state. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1577-1592. Capotondi, A., *M. Alexander, and C. Deser, 2003: Why are there Rossby wave maxima in the Pacific at 10°S and 13°N? J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 15491563. Cassou, C., *L. Terray, J. W. Hurrell, and C. Deser, 2003: North Atlantic winter climate regimes: Spatial asymmetry, stationarity with time and oceanic forcing. J. Climate, in press. Chang, P., R. Saravanan, and L. Ji, 2003: Tropical Atlantic seasonal predictability: The roles of El Niņo remote influence and thermodynamic air-sea feedback. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 10.1029/2002GL016119. Chang, P., R. Saravanan, F. Wang, L. Ji, and *T. DelSole, 2003: Predictability of linear coupled systems. Part I: Theoretical Analyses. J. Climate, in press. Chang, P., R. Saravanan, F. Wang, and L. Ji, 2003: Predictability of linear coupled systems. Part II: An application to a simple model of Tropical Atlantic variability. J. Climate, in press. *Claquin, Tanguy, *C. Roelandt, *K. Kohfeld, S. Harrison, *I. Tegen, I. C. Prentice, *Y. Balkanski, *G. Bergametti, M. Hansson, N. Mahowald, H. Rodhe, and *M. Schulz, 2003: Radiative forcing of climate by ice-age dust. Climate Dyn., 20:193-2002; DOI 10.1007/s00382-002-0269-1. Colarco, P. R., O. B. Toon, O. Torres, and P. J. Rasch, 2002: Determining the UV imaginary index of refraction of Saharan dust particles from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer data using a three-dimensional model of dust transport. J. Geophys. Res., 107, doi 10.1029/2001JD000903. Dai, A. and K. E. Trenberth, 2002: Estimates of freshwater discharge from continents: Latitudinal and seasonal variations. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 660687. Dai, A. and K. E. Trenberth, 2003: The diurnal cycle and its depiction in the Community Climate System Model. J. Climate, in press. Dai, A., W. M. Washington, G. A. Meehl, T. W. Bettge, and W. G. Strand, 2003: The ACPI global climate change simulations. Climatic Change, in press. Deser, C., M. Holland, *G. Reverdin, and *M. Timlin, 2002: Decadal variations in Labrador Sea ice cover and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. J. Geophy. Lett., 107, 10.1029/2000JC000683. Deser, C., *M. A. Alexander, and *M. S. Timlin, 2002: Understanding the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies in midlatitudes. J. Climate, 16, 5772. Deser, C., G. Magnusdottir, R. Saravanan, and A. Phillips, 2003: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea-ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part II: Direct and indirect components of the response. J. Climate, in press. Dickinson, R. E., S. E. Zebiak, J. L. Anderson, M. L. Blackmon, C. Deluca, *T. F. Hogan, *M.Iredell, *M. Ji, *R. B. Rood, *M. J. Suarez, and *K. Taylor, 2002: Need for infrastructure and commonality in climate and weather prediction codes and data. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 431-434. Doney, S. C., and Kleypas, J. A., Eds., 2003: The U.S. JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project: Phase 2. Special Issue in Deep-Sea Research II, in press. Doney, S. C., K. Lindsay, and J. K. Moore, 2003: Global ocean carbon cycle modeling. Ocean Biogeochemistry: The Role of the Ocean Carbon Cycle in Global Change, M. J. R. Fasham, Ed., Springer-Verlag, 217-238. Fournier, A., 2003: Atmospheric energetics in the wavelet domain. Part II: Time-averaged observed atmospheric blocking. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 319-338. Giannini, A., R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2003: Oceanic Forcing of Sahel Rainfall on Interannual to Interdecadal Time Scales. Science, 10.1126/science.1089357 *Gritsoun, A. S., G. Branstator, and *V. P. Dymnikov, 2002: Construction of the linear response operator of an atmospheric general circulation model to small external forcing. Russian Journal of Numerical Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, 17, 399-416. Guinotte, J. M., R. W. Buddemeier, and J. A. Kleypas, 2003: Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin. Coral Reefs, in press. *Harrison, S. P., J. E. Kutzbach, *Z. Liu, *P. J. Bartlein, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, *D. Muhs, *I. C. Prentice, and *R. S. Thompson, 2003: Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: a dynamical response to changed seasonality. Climate Dyn., 20, 663-668. Holland, M. M., 2003: An improved single-column model representation of ocean mixing associated with summertime leads: Results from a SHEBA case study. J. Geophys. Res., 108, doi:10.1029/2002JC001557. Holland, M. M., 2003: The North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation in the CCSM2 and its influence on Arctic climate variability. J. Climate, 16, 2767-2781.Holland, M. M., and C. M. Bitz, 2003: Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models. Climate Dyn., 21, 221-232, doi: s00382-003-0332-6. *Hu, A., C. Rooth, *R. Bleck, and C. Deser, 2002: NAO influence on sea ice extent in the Eurasian coastal region. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 20532056. Hurrell, J. W., 2003: Climate: North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, J. Holton, J. Pyle, and J. Curry, Eds., Academic Press, 439445. Hurrell, J. W., and *R. R. Dickson, 2003: Climate variability over the North Atlantic. Ecological Effects of Climate Variations in the North Atlantic Ocean, N. C. Stenseth, G. Ottersen, J. W. Hurrell, A. Belgrano, and B. Planque, Eds., Oxford University Press, in press. Hurrell, J. W., Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck, 2003: An Overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact, J. W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck, Eds., American Geophysical Union, 134, 10.1029/134GM01, 135. Jayne, S. R. , J. M. Wahr, and F. O. Bryan, 2003: Observing ocean heat content using satellite gravity and altimetry. J. Geophys. Res., 108, doi:10.1029/2002JC001619.Karoly, D. J., K. Braganza, *P. A. Stott, J. Arblaster, G. Meehl, *A. Broccoli, and *K. W. Dixon, 2003: Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science, 302, 1200-1203. *Karl, T. R., and K. E. Trenberth, 2003: What is climate change? Climate Change and Biodiversity, L. Hannah and T. E. Lovejoy, Eds., Yale University Press, in press. Kasahara, A., 2003: The role of the horizontal component of Earth's angular velocity in nonhydrostatic linear models. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1085-1095. Kasahara, A., 2003b: On the nonhydrostatic atmospheric models with inclusion of the horizontal component of the Earth's angular velocity. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, in press. Kleypas, J., and C. Langdon: 2002. Overview of CO2-induced changes in seawater chemistry. Proceedings of the 9th International Coral Reef Symposium, Vol. 2, Bali, Indonesia, Indonesian Institute of Sciences, 1085-1089. Liu, P., G. A. Meehl, and *G. Wu, 2002: Multi-model trends in the Sahara induced by increasing CO2. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 10.1029/2002GL015923. Liu, Z., E. Brady, and *J. Lynch-Stieglitz, 2003: Global ocean response to orbital forcing in the Holocene. Paleooceanography, 18:2, 1041, 10,1029/2002PA000819. Liu, Z., *S. I. Shin, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, J. E. Kutzbach, E. C. Brady, and *D. E. Lee, 2002: Tropical cooling at the last glacial maximum and extratropical ocean ventilation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29:10, 10.1029/2001/GL013938. Loschnigg, J., G. A. Meehl, P. J. Webster, J. M. Arblaster, and G. P. Compo, 2003: The Asian monsoon, the tropospheric biennial oscillation, and the Indian Ocean zonal mode in the NCAR CSM. J. Climate, 16, 16171642. Magnusdottir, G., C. Deser, and R. Saravanan, 2003: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea-ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part I: Main features and storm-track characteristics of the response. J. Climate, in press. Mahowald, N., R. Bryant, J. del Corral, and L. Steinberger, 2003: Ephemeral lakes and desert dust sources. J.Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2002GL016041, vol. 30, no. 2. Mahowald, N., R. A. Plumb, P. J. Rasch, J. del Corral, F. Sassi, and W. Heres, 2002: Stratospheric transport in a 3-dimensional isentropic coordinate model. J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2001JD001313. Mahowald, N., C. Zender, C. Luo, D. Savoie, O. Torres, and J. del Corral, 2002: Understanding the 30-year Barbados desert record. J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2002JD002097, D21, CN:4561, Mahowald, N., C. Luo, J. del Corral, C. Zender, 2003: Interannual variability in atmospheric mineral aerosols from a 22-year model simulation and observational data. J. Geophys. Res. 10, 1029/2002JD002821, vol. 108, no. D12, 4352. Mahowald, N. and L. Kiehl, 2003: Mineral aerosols and cloud interactions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, No. 9, 10.109/2002GL016762. Mann, M. E., C. Ammann, R. S. Bradley, K. Briffa, T. J. Crowley, M. Hughes, P. D. Jones, T. Osborn, M. Oppenheimer, *J. Overpeck, S. Rutherford, K. E. Trenberth, and T. M. L. Wigley, 2003: On past temperatures and anomalous late 20th century warmth. EOS, 84(27), 256. Mann, M. E., C. Ammann, R. S. Bradley, K. Briffa, T. J. Crowley, M. Hughes, P. D. Jones, T. Osborn, M. Oppenheimer, *J. Overpeck, S. Rutherford, K. E. Trenberth, and T. M. L. Wigley, 2003: Response to comment "On past temperatures and anomalous late 20th Century warmth." EOS, 84(44), 473,476. Meehl, G. A., 2003: Dynamics of the tropical atmosphere. Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water: Dynamics, Climate, Physical Meteorology, Weather Systems, and Measurements, T. D. Potter and B. R. Colman, Eds., John Wiley & Sons, 5768. Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, and J. Loschnigg, 2003: Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical processes in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions and the TBO. J. Climate, 16, 21382158. Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, T. M. L. Wigley, J. M. Arblaster, and A. Dai, 2003: Solar and greenhouse gas forcing and climate response in the 20th century. J. Climate, 16, 426444. Naveau P., C. M. Ammann, H-S. Oh and W. Guo, 2003: An automatic statistical methodology to extract pulse-like forcing factors in climatic time series: Application to volcanic events. In: Robock, A. (Ed.): Volcanism and the Earths Atmosphere. Geophysical Monograph, in press. Newton, C. W., 2003: Associations between twice-yearly oscillations of the North Pacific cyclone track and upper-tropospheric circulations over the Eastern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press. Nychka, D., C. K. Wikle, and *J. A. Royle, 2002: Multiresolution models for nonstationary spatial covariance functions. Statistical Modelling: An International Journal, 2, 315331. Oh, H-S. C. M. Ammann, P. Naveau, D. Nychka, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner, 2003: Multi-resolution time series analysis applied to solar irradiance and climate reconstructions. J. Atmos. and Solar-Terr. Phys., 2, 191-201. Oleson, K. W., G. B. Bonan, C. Schaaf, F. Gao, Y. Jin, and A. Strahler, 2003. Assessment of global climate model land surface albedo using MODIS data. Geophys. Res. Lett, 30, doi.10.1029/2002GL016749. Otto-Bliesner, B. L., 2003: The role of mountains, polar ice, and vegetation in determining the tropical climate during the Middle Pennsylvanian: Climate model simulations, in C.B. Cecil (Ed.), Climate Controls on Stratigraphy, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology) Special Publication No. 77, 227-237. *Ploshay, J. J. and J. L. Anderson, 2002: Large sensitivity to initial conditions in seasonal predictions with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 10.1029/2000 GL012710. Plumb, R. A., W. Heres, J. L. Neu, N. Mahowald, J. del Corral, G. C. Toon, E. Ray, F. Moore, and A. E. Andrews, 2002: Global tracer modeling during SOLVE: high latitude descent and mixing. J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2001JD001023, D5, CN:8309, *Qian, J.-H. and A. Kasahara, 2003: Nonhydrostatic atmospheric normal modes on beta-planes. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 160, 1315-1358. *Santer, B. D., *R. Sausen, T. M. L. Wigley, *J. S. Boyle, *K. AchutaRao, *C. Doutriaux, *J. E. Hansen, G. A. Meehl, *E. Roeckner, *R. Ruedy, *G. Schmidt, and *K. E. Taylor, 2002: Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations. Part I: Decadal changes. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002258. *Santer, B. D., *M. F. Wehner, T. M. L. Wigley, *R. Sausen, G. A. Meehl, *K. E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, W. M. Washington, *J. S. Boyle, and W. Bruggemann, 2003: Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes. Science, 301, 479483. *Santer, B. D., T. M. L. Wigley, G. A. Meehl, *M. F. Wehner, *C. Mears, *M. Schabel, *F. J. Wentz, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, T. Bettge, W. M. Washington, *K. E. Taylor, *J. S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, and *C. Doutriaux, 2003: Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally-forced climate change. Science, 300, 12801284. Sassi, F., R. R. Garcia, B. A. Boville, and H. Liu, 2002: On temperature inversions and the mesospheric surf zone. J. Geophys Res., 107, 4380, doi: 10.1029/2001JD001525. Sassi, F., M. Salby, H.C. Pumphrey, and W.G. Read, 2002: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on upper tropospheric humidity. J. Geophys Res., 107, 4681, doi:10.1029/2001JD001331. Schimel, D. S., and D. Baker, 2002: Wildfire and the global carbon cycle: A dominant effect of climate on ecosystems? Nature, in press. Smith, L. M., G. H. Miller, B. L. Otto-Bliesner and *S. I. Shin, 2003: Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere climate system to extreme changes in Holocene Arctic sea ice. Quat. Sci. Rev., 22, 645-658. *Smith, R. L., T. M. L. Wigley, and *B. D. Santer, 2002: A bivariate time series approach to anthropogenic trend detection in hemispheric mean temperatures. J. Climate, 16, 12281240. *Shin, S. I., Z. Liu, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, J. E. Kutbach, and *S. J. Vavrus, 2003: Southern Ocean sea-ice control of the glacial North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30:2, 1096, 10,1029/2002GL015513. *Shin, S. I., Z. Liu, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, E. C. Brady, J. E. Kutzbach, and *S. P. Harrison, 2003: A simulation of the last glacial maximum climate using the NCAR-CCSM. Climate Dyn., 20, 127-151. Stenseth, N. C., *G. Ottersen, J. W. Hurrell, A. Mysterud, M. Lima, K-S. Chan, *N. G. Yoccoz, and *B. Adlandsvik, 2003: Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: The North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niņo Southern Oscillation and beyond. Proc. Roy. Soc. London, in press. *Tanguy Claquin, *D. Roelandt, *K. Kohfield, S. Harrison, *I. Tegen, I.C.
Prentice, *Y. Balkanski, *G. Bergametti, M. Hansson, and N. Mahowald, H.
Rodhe, *M. Schulz, 2003: Radiative forcing of climate by ice-age dust. Climate
Dyn., 20:193-202; DOI10.1007/s00382-002-0269-1. Temam, R. and J. Tribbia, 2003: Open boundary conditions for the primitive and Boussinesq equations. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2647-2660. *Tippett, M. K., J. L. Anderson, *C. H. Bishop, *T. M. Hamill, and *J. S. Whitaker, 2003: Ensemble square root filters. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1485-1490. Trenberth, K. E., *T. R. Karl, and *T. W. Spence, 2002: The need for a systems approach to climate observations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 15931602. Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak, and J. M. Caron, 2002: Accuracy of atmospheric energy budgets. J. Climate, 15, 33433360. Trenberth, K. E., 2003: The El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water: Climate, Physical Meteorology, Weather Systems and Measurements, T. D. Potter and B. R. Coleman, Eds., John Wiley & Sons, 163173. Trenberth, K. E., 2003: Earths energy balance. Encyclopedia of Energy, C. J. Cleveland, Ed., Academic Press, in press. Trenberth, K. E. and B. L. Otto-Bliesner, 2003: Toward integrated reconstruction of past climates. Science, 300, 589-591. Trenberth, K. E., and D. P. Stepaniak, 2003: Co-variability of components of poleward atmospheric energy transports on seasonal and interannual timescales. J. Climate, 16, 3690-3704. Trenberth, K. E. and D. P. Stepaniak, 2003: Seamless poleward atmospheric energy transports and implications for the Hadley circulation. J. Climate, 16, 3705-3721. Trenberth, K. E., A. Dai, R. M. Rasmussen, and D. B. Parsons, 2003: The changing character of precipitation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 12051217. Tribbia, J. and D. P. Baumhefner, 2003: Scale interactions and atmospheric predictability: An updated perspective. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press. van Loon, H., G. A. Meehl, and R. Milliff, 2003: The Southern Oscillation in the early 1990s. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, doi:10.1029/2002GL016307 Wahr, J. M. , S. R. Jayne, and F. O. Bryan, 2002: A method of inferring deep ocean currents from satellite measurements of time variable gravity. J. Geophys. Res., 107, doi:10.1029/2001JC001274.Wainer, I, *A. Taschetto, *J. Soares, *A. P. de Oliveira, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, and E. C. Brady, 2003: Intercomparison of heat fluxes in the South Atlantic. Part I: The seasonal cycle. J. Climate, 16:4, 706714 Waliser, D. E., K. Jin, I.-S. Kang, W. F. Stern, *S. D. Schubert, *M. L. C. Wu, *K.-M. Lau, *M.-I. Lee, *V. Krishnamurthy, *A. Kitoh, G. A. Meehl, *V. Y. Galin, *V. Satyan, *S. K. Mandke, *G. Wu, *Y. Liu, and *C.-K. Park, 2003: AGCM simulations of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Climate Dyn., 21, 10.1007/s00382-003-0337-1. Washington, W. M., A. Dai, and G. A. Meehl, 2003: Climate change modeling: A brief history of the theory and recent 21st century ensemble simulations. In: Frontiers in the Science of Climate Modeling, J. T. Kiehl and V. Ramanathan, Eds., Cambridge University Press, in press. Williamson, D. L. and J. G. Olson, 2003: Dependence of aqua-planet simulations on time step. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 2049-2064. Zhang, M., W. Lin, C. B. Bretherton, J. J. Hack, and P. J. Rasch, 2003: A modified formulation of fractional stratiform condensation rate in the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM2). J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D1), 10.1029/2002JD002523. *Zhang, S. and J. L. Anderson, 2003: Impact of spatially and temporally varying estimates of error covariance on assimilation in a simple atmospheric model. Tellus, 55A, 126-147. NON-REFEREEDDai, A. and K. E. Trenberth, 2003: New estimates of continental discharge and oceanic freshwater transport. CD-Rom, Symp. on Observing and Understanding the Variability of Water in Weather and Climate, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., VARIH2O, JP1.11. Dai, A. and K. E. Trenberth, 2003: Diurnal variations in the Community Climate System Model. 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