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 | Hurricanes
Kevin Trenberth of the Climate Analysis Section (CAS) of the |
In 'Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming' in Science magazine June 2005, Kevin Trenberth says: "During the 2004 hurricane season in the North Atlantic, an unprecedented four hurricanes hit Florida; during the same season in the Pacific, 10 tropical cyclones or typhoons hit Japan (the previous record was six). Some scientists say that this increase is related to global warming; others say that it is not. Can a trend in hurricane activity in the North Atlantic be detected? Can any such trend be attributed to human activity? Are we even asking the right questions?"
Read the full article: Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming
In October 2004, Kevin Trenberth participated in a news conference 'Hurricanes and Global Warming' at the Center for Health and Global Environment, Harvard Medical School. Kevin's comments included "Let me focus then on the science of climate change and the physical aspects of the climate change that are going on. The first key point, as Jim McCarthy said, is that the atmospheric composition is changing due to human activities. There's a buildup of carbon dioxide; it's around 31, 32% higher than pre-industrial levels. Global warming is happening and there is a lot of evidence for that, as others have already stated, and the global mean temperature is increasing."
Read the entire transcript: Hurricanes and Global Warming News Conference
How much has global warming contributed to recent enhanced hurricane activity?
No, hurricane Katrina was not caused by global warming. But observations and our scientific analysis of them strongly suggests that there is a non-trivial human influence making such storms more intense and damaging.
There is no doubt that climate is changing, and humans are partly responsible. Global mean air temperatures are running 1 degree F or more above pre-1970s values. While 1998 remains the warmest year on record, 2002, 2003 and 2004 follow closely behind. Sea level has gone up over 1¼ inches in the past decade, as the ocean waters warm and expand and glaciers melt. Using climate models, these changes have been definitively linked to increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, most notably carbon dioxide, which has increased 32% in the past century and half of that increase has occurred since 1970. This increase is caused by human activities and especially the burning of fossil fuels.
Read more about it: Global Warming and recent hurricane activity
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