Climate Variability over the North Atlantic

James W. Hurrell

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307

Martin P. Hoerling

Climate Diagnostics Center, NOAA/ERL, Boulder, Colorado 80307

Chris. K. Folland

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire, RG12 2SY U.K.


Abstract

This paper summarizes an invited presentation given at the historic "Meteorology at the Millennium" Conference in July 2000, which marked the 150th anniversary of the Royal Meteorological Society. It begins with a broad review of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the mechanisms that might influence its phase and amplitude on decadal and longer time scales. New results are presented which suggest an important role for tropical ocean forcing of the unprecedented trend in the wintertime NAO over the past several decades. We conclude with a brief discussion of a significant change in the pattern of the summertime atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in recent decades.
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Hongjun Zhang: zhangho@ucar.edu