Trends in extreme weather and climate events: Issues related to modeling
extremes in projections of future climate change
Gerald A. Meehl, Linda Mearns
National Center for Atmospheric Research, U.S.A.
Francis Zwiers
Canadian Center for Modeling and Analysis, Canada
Jenni Evans
Pennsylvania State University, U.S.A.
Thomas Knutson
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, U.S.A.
Peter Whetton
CSIRO, Australia
Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be
derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of
these model results have already been seen in observations, including a greater
number of extreme warm days and extreme heat stress events with a fewer number
of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in
diurnal temperature range associated with higher night-time temperatures, and
increased precipitation intensity. Other model projections include northern
mid-continent summer drying, decreasing daily variability of temperature in
winter, and increasing variability of northern midlatitude summer temperatures.
Though models are becoming increasingly sophisticated, they still are not
consistent with respect to possible future changes in tropical cyclones, El
Niño effects, and extratropical storms.
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Hongjun Zhang:
zhangho@ucar.edu