Global warming potentials:
1.Climatic implications of emissions reductions
Steven J. Smith and T. M. L. Wigley
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P. O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307
The use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to calculate 'equivalent' carbon
dioxide emissions reductions in the climate change context is examined. We find
that GWPs are accurate only for short time horizons. Over long time horizons
their use implicitly leads to tradeoffs between near-term and long-term climate
change. For one of the most policy-relevant cases, comparing reductions in
methane and carbon dioxide, the long-term effect on climate of reducing methane
emissions is relatively small, in variance with common perception based on
published GWP values.
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Hongjun Zhang:
zhangho@ucar.edu