Global warming potentials: 2.Accuracy

Steven J. Smith and T. M. L. Wigley

National Center for Atmospheric Research
P. O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307


Abstract

This paper exposes flaws in the mathematical structure of the Global Warming Potential (GWP) concept. These lead to errors when emissions changes in different greenhouse gases are compared. The most fundamental problem is that the unit impulse response functions from which GWPs, and many of their proposed alternatives, are constructed provide an incomplete representation of the relationship between emissions and radiative forcing. Additional errors occur when GWPs are used to compare finite-length emissions changes.
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Hongjun Zhang: zhangho@ucar.edu