Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 28, No. 23, 4511-4514, Dec 1,
2001
Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 on global climate in
the next two centuries
Aiguo Dai, T. M. L. Wigley, G. A. Meehl and W. M. Washington
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Previous coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations showed that the reduction in
global warming is only moderate by year 2100 under CO2 stabilization
(STA) scenarios compared with that under business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. To
further illustrate the long-term effect of stabilizing CO2 on global
climate, we integrated a coupled ocean-atmosphere model from 1870 to 2200 forced
by historical and projected CO2, SO2 and other greenhouse
gases under newly updated BAU and STA scenarios. Our results show that the
reduction in global warming resulting from CO2 stabilization could be
large (~1.5oC globally, and up to 12oC in DJF at northern
high-latitudes) by the later part of the 22nd century. Stabilizing
the CO2 level also results in reduced changes in precipitation, soil
moisture and diurnal temperature range. BAU and STA patterns of change are
similar for all variables examined.
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Hongjun Zhang:
zhangho@ucar.edu