The IPCC Assessment of Global Warming 2001
Kevin E. Trenberth
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P. O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307
email: trenbert@cgd.ucar.edu
voice: (303) 497 1318
fax: (303) 497 1333
18 December, 2000
J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres
The latest 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report reaffirms
in much stronger language that the climate is changing in ways that cannot be
accounted for by natural variability and that "global warming" is happening.
Global mean temperatures have risen and the last decade is the warmest on record.
The major cause of warming in the last three decades is from human effects changing
the composition of the atmosphere primarily through use of fossil fuels. While
changes in particulate pollution mostly causes cooling, increases in long-lived
greenhouse gases dominate and cause warming. The long lifetime of several greenhouse
gases (carbon dioxide lasts for over a century) suggests that we can not stop the
changes, although we can slow them down. Moreover, the slow response of the oceans
to warming, means that we have not yet seen all of the climate change we are already
committed to. Major climate changes are projected under all likely scenarios of the
future and the rates of change are much greater than occur naturally, and so are
likely to be disruptive.
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