CCR's Climate Change Prediction Research
Low Emission Scenario: How Much Global Warming Can Be Avoided By Mitigation
We have explored the question of how much regional climate change can be avoided by a large reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases and whether the global temperature can be stabilized. This research addresses that question by computer simulating climate change with a new low 21st century greenhouse gas scenario. The research also examines the climate impacts. When compared to a non-intervention reference scenario, the world requires emission reductions of 67% by 2100 to prevent about half of the changes in temperature and precipitation. This would also stabilize global temperature, Arctic sea ice and permafrost. The intensity of heat waves would be 55% less; however, the sea level would continue to rise from thermal expansion of oceans and glacial melt for many centuries after the 2100.
Related
How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation?
Abstract: Avoiding the most serious climate change impacts will require informed policy decisions. This in turn will require information regarding the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions required to stabilize climate in a state not too much warmer than today. A new low emission scenario is simulated in a global climate model to show how some of the impacts from climate change can be averted through mitigation. Compared to a non-intervention reference scenario, emission reductions of about 70% by 2100 are required to prevent roughly half the change in temperature and precipitation that would otherwise occur. By 2100, the resulting stabilized global climate would ensure preservation of considerable Arctic sea ice and permafrost areas. Future heat waves would be 55% less intense, and sea level rise from thermal expansion would be about 57% lower than if a non-mitigation scenario was followed.
Citation: Washington, W.M., R. Knutti, G.A. Meehl, H. Teng, C. Tebaldi, D. Lawrence, L. Buja, and W.G. Strand, 2009: How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08703, doi:10.1029/2008GL037074.