Climate Change Prediction
CCP Publications 2002 - 2006
Ammann, C.M., G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington and C.S. Zender, 2003: A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulations of the 20th century climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(12), 1657, DOI 10.1029/2003GL016875.
Arblaster, J.M., G.A. Meehl and A. Moore, 2002: Interdecadal modulation of Australian rainfall. Climate Dynamics, 18, 519-531.
Arblaster, J.M. and G.A. Meehl, 2006: Contributions of external forcings to Southern Annular Mode trends, Journal of Climate, in press.
Barnett,T., D.W. Pierce, and R. Schnur, 2001: Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans. Science, 292: 270-274 [DOI: 10.1126/science.1058304]
Barnett, T. and coauthors, 2005a: Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: A review of recent advances. Journal of Climate, 18, 1291-1314.
Barnett, T.P., D. Pierce, K. AchutaRao, P. Gleckler, B. Santer, J. Gregory and W. Washington, 2005b: Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World's Oceans. Science, 309, 284-287.
Blackmon, M., B. Boville, F. Bryan, R. Dickinson, P. Gent, J. Kiehl, R. Moritz, D. Randall, J. Shukla, S. Solomon, G. Bonan, S. Doney, I. Fung, J. Hack, E. Hunke, J. Hurrell, J. Kutzbach, G. Meehl, B. Otto-Bliesner, R. Saravanan, E. Schneider, L. Sloan, M. Spall, K. Taylor, J. Tribbia, and W. Washington, 2001: The Community Climate System Model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, 2357-2376.
Braganza, K., Karoly, D.J., Arblaster, J. M., 2004: Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century Geophysical Research Letters. 31:13, L13217 10.1029/2004GL019998.
Church, J.A, N.J. White and J.M. Arblaster, 2005: Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content, Nature, 438, 74-77.
Dai, A., J. Wang, R. H. Ware, and T. Van Hove, 2002: Diurnal variation in water vapor over North America and its implications for sampling errors in radiosonde humidity. Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(D10), 10.1029/2001JD000642.
Dai, A., W.M. Washington, G.A. Meehl, T.W. Bettge, and W.G. Strand, 2004: The ACPI climate change simulations. Climatic Change, 62, 29-43.
Dai, A., A. Hu, G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington and W.G. Strand, 2005: Atlantic thermohaline circulation in a coupled general circulation model: Unforced variations vs. forced changes. Journal of Climate, 18, 2990-3013.
Feddema, J., K. Oleson, G. Bonan, L. Mearns, W.M. Washington, and G. Meehl, 2005a: A comparison of a GCM response to historical anthropogenic land cover change and model sensitivity to uncertainty in present day land cover representations. Climate Dynamics, 26:6, 581-609. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-005-0038-z.
Feddema, J.J. K. Oleson, G. Bonan, L.O. Mearns, L. E. Buja, G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, 2005b: How important is land cover change for simulating future climates? Science, 310, 1674-1678.
Gent, P. R., A. P. Craig, C. M. Bitz and J. W. Weatherly, 2002: Parameterization improvements in an eddy-permitting ocean model for climate. Journal of Climate, 15, 1447-1459.
Gent, P.R. and G. Danabasoglu, 2004. Heat uptake and the thermohaline circulation in the Community Climate System Model, version 2. Journal of Climate, 17, 4058-4069.
Gregory, J.M., K.W. Dixon, R. J. Stouffer, A. J. Weaver, E. Driesschaert, M. Eby, T. Fichefet, H. Hasumi, A. Hu, J. H. Jungclaus, I.V. Kamenkovich, A. Levermann, M. Montoya, S. Murakami, S. Nawrath, A. Oka, A. P. Sokolov, R. B. Thorpe, 2005: A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L12703,doi:10.1029/2005GL023209.
Hu, A., G. A. Meehl, and W. Han 2004a: Detecting thermohaline circulation changes from ocean properties in a coupled model, Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L13204, doi:10.1029/2004GL020218.
Hu, A., G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, and A. Dai 2004b: Response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to increased atmospheric CO2 in a coupled model, Journal of Climate, 17, 4267-4279.
Hu, A. and G. A. Meehl, 2005a: Reasons for a fresher northern North Atlantic in the late 20th Century. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L11701,doi: 1029/2005GL022900.
Hu, A and G. A. Meehl, 2005b: Bering Strait throughflow and the thermohaline circulation, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L24610, doi:10.1029/2005GL024424.
Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, B. Wang, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, S.D. Schubert, D.E. Waliser W.F. Stern, A. Kitoh, G.A. Meehl, M. Kanamitsu, V.Y. Galin, V. Satyan, C.K. Park and Q. Liu, 2002: Intercomparison of atmospheric GCM simulated anomalies associated with the 1997-98 El Niņo. Journal of Climate, 15, 2791-2805.
Kang, I.-S., K. Jin, B. Wang, K.-M. Lau, J. Shukla, V. Krishnamurthy, S.D. Schubert, D.E. Waliser, W.F. Stern, A. Kitoh, G.A. Meehl, M. Kanamitsu, V.Y. Galin, V. Satyan, C.K. Park and Q. Liu, 2002: Intercomparison of the climatological variations of Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by 10 GCMs. Climate Dynamics, 19, 383-395.
Karoly D.J., K. Braganza, P.A Stott, J.M. Arblaster, G.A. Meehl, A.J. Broccoli, K.W. Dixon, 2003: Detection of a Human Influence on North American Climate. Science, 302, 1200-1203.
Kiehl, J. T. and P. R. Gent, 2004: The Community Climate System Model, version 2. Journal of Climate, 17, 3666-3682.
Knutti, R., G.A. Meehl, M.R. Allen, and D.A. Stainforth, 2006: Constraining climate sensitivity from the seasonal cycle in surface temperature. Journal of Climate, in press.
Lawrence, D. M., and A. G. Slater (2005), A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L24401, doi:10.1029/2005GL025080.
Lamarque, J.-F., P. Hess, L. Emmons, L. Buja, W.M. Washington and C. Granier, 2005: Tropospheric ozone evolution between 1890 and 1990, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D08304, doi: 10.1029/2004JD005537
Leung, L.R., Yun Qian, Xindi Bian, Warren M. Washington, Jongil Han, John O. Roads, 2004: Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States. Climatic Change, 62, 75-113.
Liu, P., G.A. Meehl and G. Wu, 2003: Multi-model trends in the Sahara induced by increasing CO2. Geophysical Research Letter, 29, DOI: 10.1029/2002GL015923.
Liu, P., B. Wang, K. Sperber, T. Li, and G.A. Meehl, 2005: MJO in the NCAR CAM2 with the Tiedtke Convective Scheme. Journal of Climate, in press.
Loschnigg, J., G.A. Meehl, P.J. Webster, J.M. Arblaster, and G.P. Compo, 2003: The Asian monsoon, the tropospheric biennial oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole in the NCAR CSM. J. Climate, 16, 2138-2158.
Meehl, G.A., and J. M. Arblaster, 2002a: The tropospheric biennial oscillation and Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall. Journal of Climate, 15, 722-744.
Meehl, G.A., and J. M. Arblaster, 2002b: GCM sensitivity experiments for the Indian monsoon and tropospheric biennial oscillation transition conditions. Journal of Climate, 15, 923-944.
Meehl, G.A., 2002: Attribution of societal and environmental impacts to specific La Nina and El Niņo events. La Niņa and Its Impacts: Facts and Speculation. M.H. Glantz, ed. New York: United Nations University Press, 63-67.
Meehl, G.A., 2003: Tropical dynamics of the atmosphere. in Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water: Dynamical Meteorology and Oceanography, J. Tribbia, ed., John Wiley and Sons, 57-68.
Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Arblaster and A. Dai, 2003a: Solar and Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Response in the Twentieth Century. Journal of Climate, 16, 426-444.
Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Arblaster and A. Dai, 2003b: Solar and Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Response in the Twentieth Century. Journal of Climate, 16, 426-444.
Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, and J. Loschnigg, 2003c: Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical processes in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean regions and the TBO. J. Climate, 16, 2138-2158.
Meehl, G.A. and J.M. Arblaster, 2003: Mechanisms for projected future changes in south Asian monsoon precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 21, 659-675.
Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigley, and C. Tebaldi, 2004a: Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcing and 20th century climate. Journal of Climate, 17, 3721-3727.
Meehl, G.A., C. Tebaldi, and D. Nychka, 2004b: Changes in frost days in simulations of 21st century climate. Climate Dynamics, 23, 495-511. 10.1007/s00382-004-0442-9.
Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, J.M. Arblaster, and A. Hu, 2004c: Factors affecting climate sensitivity in global coupled models. Journal of Climate, 17, 1584-1596.
Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Arblaster, and A. Dai, 2004d: Mechanisms of an intensified Hadley Circulation in response to solar forcing in the 20th century, in The Hadley Circulation: Past, Present and Future, H. Diaz and R. Bradley, eds., Cambridge University Press, 489-511.
Meehl, G.A., and C. Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, 305, 994-997.
Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, W. D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, L.E. Buja, W. G. Strand, H. Teng, 2005a: How much more global warming and sea level rise. Science, 307, 1769-1772.
Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster and C. Tebaldi, 2005b: Understanding future patterns of precipitation extremes in climate model simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L18719, doi:10.1029/2005GL023680.
Meehl, G.A., C. Covey, B. McAvaney, M. Latif, and R.J. Stouffer, 2005c: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86, 89-93
Meehl, G.A., H. Teng, and G.W. Branstator, 2006a: Future changes of El Niņo in two global coupled climate models. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-0098-0.
Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, B.D. Santer, W.D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, D. Lawrence, H. Teng, L.E. Buja, and W.G. Strand, 2006b: Climate change in the 20th and 21st centuries and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. Journal of Climate, in press.
Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, D. Lawrence, E.K. Schneider, and A. Seth, 2006c: Monsoon regimes in the CCSM3. Journal of Climate, in press.
Meehl, G.A. and A. Hu 2006: Megadroughts in the Indian monsoon and southwest North America and a mechanism for associated multi-decadal Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate, in press.
Ramanathan, V., C. Chung, D. Kim, T. Bettge, L. Buja, J.T. Kiehl, W.M. Washington, Q. Fu, D.R. Sikka and M. Wild, 2005: Atmospheric brown clouds: Impacts on S. Asian climate and hydrological cycle. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 102, 5325-5333, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0500656102.
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, G.A. Meehl, M.F. Wehner, C. Mears, M. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, T. Bettge, W.M. Washington, K.E. Taylor, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, and C. Doutriaux, 2003a: Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally-forced climate change. Science, 300, 1280-1284.
Santer, B. D., Sausen, R., Wigley, T. M. L., Boyle, J. S., AchutaRao, K., Doutriaux, C., Hansen, J. E., Meehl, G. A., Roeckner, E., Ruedy, R., Schmidt, G., and Taylor, K. E., 2003b: Behavior of tropopause height and atmospheric temperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, 4002, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002258.
Santer, B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle, and W. Bruggemann, 2003c: Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes. Science, 301, 479-483.
Santer, B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C. Amman, J.M. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggeman, 2004a: Response to comment on Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes. Science, 303, 1771c.
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, A.J. Simmons, P. Kallberg, G.A. Kelly, S. Uppala, C. Ammann, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, C. Doutriaux, M. Fiorino, C. Mears, G.A. Meehl, R. Sausen, K.E. Taylor, W.M. Washington, M.F. Wehner, and F.J. Wentz, 2004b: Identification of anthropogenic climate change using a second-generation reanalysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D21104, doi:10.1029/2004JD005075.
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, C. Mears, F.J. Wentz, S.A. Klein, D.J. Seidel, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, M.F. Wehner, P.J. Gleckler, J.S. Boyle, W. Collins, K.W. Dixon, C. Doutriaux, M. Free, Q. Fu, J.E. Hansen, G.S. Jones, R. Ruedy, T.R. Karl, J.R. Lanzante, G.A. Meehl, V. Ramaswamy, G. Russell, and G.A. Schmidt, 2005: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science, 309, 1551-1556.
Smith, R. D. and P. R. Gent, 2004: Anisotropic GM parameterization for ocean models. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 34, 2541-2564.
Tebaldi, C., J.M. Arblaster, K. Hayhoe, and G.A. Meehl, 2006: Going to the extremes: An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Climatic Change, in press.
Teng, H., W.M. Washington, G.A. Meehl, L.A. Buja and G.W. Strand, 2006a: 21st Century Arctic Climate Change in the CCSM3 IPCC Scenario Simulations. Climate Dynamics, in press.
Teng, H., L. Buja, and G.A. Meehl, 2006b: 21st century climate change commitment from a multi-model ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, in press.
Timbal B., J.M. Arblaster and S.B. Power, 2006: Attribution of the late 20th century rainfall decline in South-West Australia, Journal of Climate, in press.
van Loon, H., G.A. Meehl, and R. Milliff, 2003: The Southern Oscillation in the early 1990s. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, doi: 10.1029/2002GL016307.
van Loon, H., G.A. Meehl, and J.M. Arblaster, 2004: A decadal solar effect in the tropics in July-August. Journal of DOI: 10.1007/s00382-005-0038-z Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 66, 1767-1778 (doi: 10.1016/j.jastp.2004.06.003)
Waliser, D. E., K. Jin, I.-S. Kang, W. F. Stern, S. D. Schubert, M. L. C. Wu, K.-M. Lau, M.-I. Lee, V. Krishnamurthy, A. Kitoh, G. A. Meehl, V. Y. Galin, V. Satyan, S. K. Mandke, G. Wu, Y. Liu, and C.-K. Park, 2003: AGCM simulations of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Climate Dynamics., 21, 10.1007/s00382-003-0337-1.
Washington, W.M., A. Dai, and G.A. Meehl, 2006: Climate Change Modeling: A Brief History of the Theory and Recent 21st Century Ensemble Simulations. In: Frontiers in the Science of Climate Modeling, J.T. Kiehl and V. Ramanathan (eds.), Cambridge University Press, in press.
Washington, W.M., 2006: Computer Modeling the 20th and 21st Century Climate, American Philosophical Society, in press.
Washington, W.M. and C.L. Parkinson, 2005: An Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling, 2nd Edition. University Science Books, ISBN: 1-891389-35-1, 353 pp.
Wigley T. M. L., C. M. Ammann, B. D. Santer, and S. C. B. Raper, 2005: Effect of climate sensitivity on the response to volcanic forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, D09107, doi:10.1029/2004JD005557.
1999-2001
Branstetter, M. L., 2001: Development of a Parallel River Transport Algorithm and Applications to Climate Studies, Dissertation, University of Texas at Austin, 119 pp.
Barnett, Tim P., David W. Pierce, Reiner Schnur: 2001: Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change in the World's Oceans Science, 292 (5515):270-274.
Dai, A., G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, T.M.L Wigley, and Julie A. Arblaster, 2001: Ensemble simulation of 21st century climate changes: business as usual vs. CO2 stabilization. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 82, 2377-2388.
Dai, A., G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, T.M.L. Wigley, 2001:Ensemble simulation of the 20th and 21st century climates by a coupled GCM. In:Proceedings of the AMS 12th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, 14-18 Jan. 2001, Albuquerque, New Mexico, pp.7-8.
Dai, A., G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, and T.M.L Wigley, 2001: Climate changes in the 21st century over the Asia-Pacific region simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 18, 639-658.
Dai, A., T. M. L. Wigley, G. A. Meehl, and W. M. Washington, 2001: Effects of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 on global climate in the next two centuries.Geophys. Res. Lett., 28:23, 4511-4514.
Liu, P., W.M. Washington, G.A. Meehl, G. Wu, and G.L. Potter, 2001: Historical and future trends of the Sahara Desert. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2683-2686.
Meehl, G.A., P. Gent, J.M. Arblaster, B. Otto-Bliesner, E. Brady, and A. Craig, 2000: Factors that affect amplitude of El Nino in global coupled climate models. Climate Dynamics, Volume 17 Issue 7 (2001) pp 515-526.
Weatherly, J. W. and Y. Zhang, 2001: The response of the polar regions to increased CO2 in a global climate model with elastic-viscous-plastic sea ice. J. Climate, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 268-283.
Weatherly, J. W., 2001:Sensitivity of Antarctic Precipitation to Sea Ice Concentrations in a General Circulation Model. Sixth Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, American Meteorol. Soc., Boston.
Washington, W.M., J.W. Weatherly, G.A. Meehl, A.J. Semtner, Jr., T.W. Bettge, A.P. Craig, W.G. Strand, Jr., J.M. Arblaster, V.B. Wayland, R. James, Y. Zhang, 2000: Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations Climate Dynamics, Volume 16 Issue 10/11 (2000) pp 755-774
Weatherly, J. W., and J. M. Arblaster, 2000: Sea ice and polar climate in 20th and 21st Century simulations with a global atmosphere-ocean-ice model.Annals of Glaciology, Vol. 33, 521-524.