Welcome to CCR's Integrated Assessment Modeling in CGD
The CCR Section has a new Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) group that is developing and applying integrated socio-economic and biophysical models of the climate system. The IAM group is also part of NCAR's Integrated Science Program (ISP).
The integrated assessment field uses such linked models to address questions relevant to policy responses to the climate change issue. NCAR's IAM group is initially focusing on exploring the influence of alternative socio-economic development paths on future greenhouse gas emissions and climate change impacts, and improving linkages to earth system models, with an initial emphasis on land use. Over time the group aims to improve the treatment of uncertainty and the modeling of impacts and adaptation in integrated assessments.
Modeling work is centered around further development of the iPETS model (integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science model). iPETS links a global, multi-region economic model with reduced-form models of the climate system and greenhouse gas cycles.
Krey, V., O'Neill, B.C., van Ruijven, B., Chaturvedi, V., Daioglou, V., Eom, J., Jiang, L., Nagai, Y., Pachauri, S., Ren, X. Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia. Energy Economics, in press. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]
Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B.C., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Lempert, R., Moss, R., Wilbanks, T., 2012. The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change 22(4), 807-822. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]
Melnikov, N., O'Neill, B.C., Dalton, M.G., 2012. Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models. Energy Economics 34(5), 1475-1483. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ] [ Model Code (ZIP) ]
O'Neill, B.C., Liddle, B., Jiang, L., Smith, K.R., Fuchs, R., Dalton, M., Pachauri, S., 2012. Demographic change and emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. The Lancet 380, 157-164. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]
van Vuuren, D.P., Batlle Bayer, L., Chuwah, C., Ganzeveld, L., Hazeleger, W., van den Hurk, B., van Noije, T., O'Neill, B.C., Strengers, B.J., 2012. A comprehensive view on climate change: Coupling of Earth System and Integrated Assessment Models. Environmental Research Letters 7, 024012 (10pp). [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]
Lawrence, P., Feddema, J. J., Bonan, G. B., Meehl, G. A., O'Neill, B. C., Levis, S., Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Kluzek, E., Lindsay, K., and Thornton, P. E., 2012. Simulating the biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of transient land cover change and wood harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100. Journal of Climate, 25, 3071-3095.
van Ruijven, B.J., de Vries, H.J.M, van Vuuren, D.P. and Balachandra, P. Model projections for household energy use in India. accepted for publication in Energy Policy.
Jones, B. 2012. Assessment of the potential-allocation downscaling methodology for constructing spatial population projections. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-487+STR, 52 pp. [tech note]
Arnell, N., Kram, T., Carter, T., Ebi, K., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kriegler, E., and Mathur, R. O'Neill, B.C., Riahi, K., Winkler, H., van Vuuren, D., Zwickel, T., 2011. A framework for a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impact, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation research. [article]
O'Neill, B.C., and Schweizer, V., 2011. Mapping the road ahead. (News & Views piece). Nature Climate Change 1, 352-353. [article]
Sanderson, B.M., O'Neill, B.C., Kiehl, J., Meehl, G., Knutti, R., and Washington, W.M., 2011. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 6(3), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034005, [paper] [related]
Choi, S.-W, Sohngen, B., and Alig, R., 2011. An Assessment of the Influence of Bioenergy and Marketed Land Amenity Values on Land Uses in the Midwest US. Ecological Economics, 70:713-720.
Choi, S.-W, Sohngen, B., Rose, S., Hertel, T., and Golub, A., 2011. Total Factor Productivity Change in Agriculture and Emissions from Deforestation. Invited papers to ASSA meeting in 2010 at Atlanta, GA, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(2) 349-355.
Ren, X., Fullerton, D., and Braden, J., 2011. Optimal Taxation of Externalities Interacting through Markets: A Theoretical General Equilibrium Analysis. Resource and Energy Economics, 33(3), P496-514.
Jiang, L., and Hardee, K., 2011. How do recent population trends matter to climate change. Population Research and Policy Review, 30(2): 287-312. [article]
Orenstein, D., Jiang, L., and Hamburg, S., 2011. An elephant in the planning room: political-demography and its influence on sustainable land use planning in drylands. Journal of Arid Environments, 75(6): 596-611. [article]
van Ruijven, B.J., Lamarque, J.-F., van Vuuren, D.P., Kram, T., and Eerens H. M., 2011. Emission Scenarios for a Global Hydrogen Economy and the Consequences for Global Air Pollution. Global Environmental Change: 21(3) 983-994. [article]