Welcome to CCR's Integrated Assessment Modeling in CGD
The CCR Section has a new Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) group that is developing and applying integrated socio-economic and biophysical models of the climate system. The IAM group is also part of NCAR's Integrated Science Program (ISP).
The integrated assessment field uses such linked models to address questions relevant to policy responses to the climate change issue. NCAR's IAM group is initially focusing on exploring the influence of alternative socio-economic development paths on future greenhouse gas emissions and climate changes, better connecting long-term climate policy goals to shorter-term actions, and improving the treatment of uncertainty in integrated assessments. Over time the group aims to carry out research on the role of land use in responding to the climate change issue, to explore linkages between integrated assessment models and earth system models such as CCSM, and to improve the modeling of impacts and adaptation.
Modeling work is centered around further development of the iPETS model (integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science model). iPETS links a global, multi-region economic model with reduced-form models of the climate system and greenhouse gas cycles.
Recent Publications
Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options. 2010: PNAS, B.C. O'Neill, K. Riahi, and I. Keppo. [paper] [supplemental material]
Insufficient forcing uncertainty underestimates the risk of high climate sensitivity. 2009: Geophysical Research Letters, Tanaka, K., Raddatz, T., O'Neill, B.C. and C.H. Reick.
Household projections for rural and urban areas of major regions of the world. 2009: IIASA Interim Report IR-09-026. Jiang, L. and B.C. O'Neill.
Production data for the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) Model. 2009: IIASA Interim Report IR-09-025. Fuchs, R., Pachauri, S., and B.C. O'Neill.
Evaluating Global Warming Potentials with historical temperature. 2009: Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9566-6. Tanaka, K., O'Neill, B.C., Rokityanskiy, D., Obersteiner, M., and R. S. J. Tol.
Where next with global environmental scenarios? 2009: Environmental Research Letters, 3, 045012, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045012. O'Neill, B., S. Pulver, S. VanDeveer and Y. Garb.
IAM in the News
Missed 2050 climate targets will reduce long-term options. After last month's United Nations climate conference in Copenhagen failed to produce a binding agreement to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, the outlook still isn't getting any better. A modelling study suggests that the massive mobilization necessary to halve greenhouse-gas emissions by 2050 is "barely feasible" unless global development patterns shift radically. [Nature story]
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The "P" Word and Climate Change. Over the last two years we've gotten repeated comments and requests to address population growth as - if not as the root of all evil then at least as a fundamental problem that deserves more attention. [podcast]
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Population Matters. "You're not going to solve he climate problem - or probably any other environmental problem - just by slowing population growth," O'Neill says. But development pathways and the nature of economic growth around the world provide the context in which societies must address climate change. [podcast]
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