Welcome to CCR's Integrated Assessment Modeling in CGD
The CCR Section has a new Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) group that is developing and applying integrated socio-economic and biophysical models of the climate system. The IAM group is also part of NCAR's Integrated Science Program (ISP).
The integrated assessment field uses such linked models to address questions relevant to policy responses to the climate change issue. NCAR's IAM group is initially focusing on exploring the influence of alternative socio-economic development paths on future greenhouse gas emissions and climate change impacts, and improving linkages to earth system models, with an initial emphasis on land use. Over time the group aims to improve the treatment of uncertainty and the modeling of impacts and adaptation in integrated assessments.
Modeling work is centered around further development of the iPETS model (integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science model). iPETS links a global, multi-region economic model with reduced-form models of the climate system and greenhouse gas cycles.
Recent Publications
O'Neill, B.C., Ren, X., Jiang, L., Dalton, M.G. The effect of urbanization on energy use in India and China in the iPETS model. Energy Economics, in press. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]
Krey, V., O'Neill, B.C., van Ruijven, B., Chaturvedi, V., Daioglou, V., Eom, J., Jiang, L., Nagai, Y., Pachauri, S., Ren, X. Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia. Energy Economics, in press. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]
Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B.C., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Lempert, R., Moss, R., Wilbanks, T., 2012. The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change 22(4), 807-822. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]
Melnikov, N., O'Neill, B.C., Dalton, M.G., 2012. Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models. Energy Economics 34(5), 1475-1483. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ] [ Model Code (ZIP) ]
O'Neill, B.C., Liddle, B., Jiang, L., Smith, K.R., Fuchs, R., Dalton, M., Pachauri, S., 2012. Demographic change and emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. The Lancet 380, 157-164. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]
van Vuuren, D.P., Batlle Bayer, L., Chuwah, C., Ganzeveld, L., Hazeleger, W., van den Hurk, B., van Noije, T., O'Neill, B.C., Strengers, B.J., 2012. A comprehensive view on climate change: Coupling of Earth System and Integrated Assessment Models. Environmental Research Letters 7, 024012 (10pp). [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]
Lawrence, P., Feddema, J. J., Bonan, G. B., Meehl, G. A., O'Neill, B. C., Levis, S., Lawrence, D. M., Oleson, K. W., Kluzek, E., Lindsay, K., and Thornton, P. E., 2012. Simulating the biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of transient land cover change and wood harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100. Journal of Climate, 25, 3071-3095.
van Ruijven, B.J., de Vries, H.J.M, van Vuuren, D.P. and Balachandra, P. Model projections for household energy use in India. accepted for publication in Energy Policy.
Jones, B. 2012. Assessment of the potential-allocation downscaling methodology for constructing spatial population projections. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-487+STR, 52 pp. [tech note]
Arnell, N., Kram, T., Carter, T., Ebi, K., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kriegler, E., and Mathur, R. O'Neill, B.C., Riahi, K., Winkler, H., van Vuuren, D., Zwickel, T., 2011. A framework for a new generation of socioeconomic scenarios for climate change impact, adaptation, vulnerability and mitigation research. [article]
O'Neill, B.C., and Schweizer, V., 2011. Mapping the road ahead. (News & Views piece). Nature Climate Change 1, 352-353. [article]
Sanderson, B.M., O'Neill, B.C., Kiehl, J., Meehl, G., Knutti, R., and Washington, W.M., 2011. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 6(3), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034005, [paper] [related]
Choi, S.-W, Sohngen, B., and Alig, R., 2011. An Assessment of the Influence of Bioenergy and Marketed Land Amenity Values on Land Uses in the Midwest US. Ecological Economics, 70:713-720.
Choi, S.-W, Sohngen, B., Rose, S., Hertel, T., and Golub, A., 2011. Total Factor Productivity Change in Agriculture and Emissions from Deforestation. Invited papers to ASSA meeting in 2010 at Atlanta, GA, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(2) 349-355.
Ren, X., Fullerton, D., and Braden, J., 2011. Optimal Taxation of Externalities Interacting through Markets: A Theoretical General Equilibrium Analysis. Resource and Energy Economics, 33(3), P496-514.
Jiang, L., and Hardee, K., 2011. How do recent population trends matter to climate change. Population Research and Policy Review, 30(2): 287-312. [article]
Orenstein, D., Jiang, L., and Hamburg, S., 2011. An elephant in the planning room: political-demography and its influence on sustainable land use planning in drylands. Journal of Arid Environments, 75(6): 596-611. [article]
van Ruijven, B.J., Lamarque, J.-F., van Vuuren, D.P., Kram, T., and Eerens H. M., 2011. Emission Scenarios for a Global Hydrogen Economy and the Consequences for Global Air Pollution. Global Environmental Change: 21(3) 983-994. [article]
O'Neill, B.C., Dalton, M., Jiang, L., Fuchs, R., Pachauri, S., and Zigova, K., 2010. Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions. PNAS, [paper] [supporting information]
IAM in the News
Research Paper Provides Scientific Evidence for the London Family Planning Summit
A new research paper from the IAM group, Demographic change and emissions of carbon dioxide, was published in a special issue of The Lancet that reviews the evidence for the effects of population and family planning on people's well-being and the environment. The Series was launched ahead of the London Summit on Family Planning, co-hosted by the UK Government and Gates Foundation, on July 11, 2012. It brought together participants from across the world to mobilize global action supporting the rights of 120 million additional women and girls to access reproductive health services without coercion or discrimination. [Research paper] [The Lancet series] [Article] [Article] [Article]
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Societal Dimensions Working Group of CESM
A new working group of NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) has been formed to focus on societal dimensions, with emphases in the areas of integrated assessment modeling and water management. The first open meeting was held in February. [Societal Dimensions Working Group]
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Demographic Challenges for Sustainable Development
In a letter to editor of Science a panel of leading experts in population and development consider how demographic factors promote or impede sustainable development. Their recommendations are outlined in The Laxenburg Declaration and prepared for submission to Rio+20. [letter] [Laxenburg Declaration]
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A New Scenario Process
A community-wide effort is underway to develop a new set of socio-economic scenarios to use in integrated climate change analysis. The process is described in an article in Nature - Climate Change and a key workshop was hosted at NCAR by the Integrated Assessment Modeling group. [meeting website] [article]
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Population Trends: Another Influence on Climate Change
Changes in population growth and composition, including aging and urbanization, could significantly affect global emissions of carbon dioxide over the next 40 years... By mid-century it is estimated that global population could rise by more than three billion people, with most of that increase occurring in urban areas. [UCAR press release] [related] [related] [related] [related] [related] [related]