>Scientific questions for Climate Change and Assessment
>to be addressed for the next IPCC assessment,
>and CCSM model simulations required to address those questions
>
>Gerald A. Meehl and Warren M. Washington
>
>Motivation: At the recent Conference of the Parties meeting in Delhi,
>the nations of the world have come to recognize that adaptation to
>climate change is more expedient than mitigation.  Previously, when
>mitigation was still a priority, there was the perception that once
>climate models had raised the issue of the effects of climate change due
>to anthropogenic forcings, the policymakers would take this general
>warning and devise mitigation strategies.  Thus, according to this line
>of reasoning, after the mitigation strategies were initiated, the
>climate change simulations from the climate models would be of less
>interest.  However, now that adaptation is a higher priority, the
>climate models will be asked for even more detailed regional climate
>change information.  In effect, since the countries of the world must
>adapt to climate change, it is more important than ever for the climate
>models to provide detailed forecasts of future climate conditions so
>that policymakers will have more information concerning what human
>societies must adapt to.
>
>(note that for there is overlap for some of the simulations required to
>address the various scientific questions)

 1. What are the sign and nature of the feedbacks of future climate
    change when aerosols are included explicitly in a global coupled
    climate model? (e.g. mineral, sulfate direct and indirect, black
    carbon)
 
    1.a Sensitivity experiments with CAM and slab ocean; a
    1.b analysis of carbon cycle runs with CSM1; 
    1.c 20th century runs with black carbon and mineral  dust in CCSM T85;
  
                                                         
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------
    1.a  T42  CAM+SOM   Sensitivity runs       100    1 
    1.b  T42  CSM1      carbon cycle runs      200    1 
    1.c  T85  CCSM      20th Century           130    2 
 
 
 2. What are the factors that affect climate sensitivity (e.g. size and
    nature of various feedbacks, cloud, ice/albedo, water vapor)
 
    2.a Comparison of 1% CO2 runs with different model versions and
        resolutions (CSM, PCM, PCTM, CCSM at T42 and T85);
     
    2.b Sensitivity experiments with CAM and slab ocean;
  
    2.c CLIVAR CPT project with GFDL to analyze cloud processes and feedbacks.
  
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    2.a1 T42  CSM       1% CO2 runs           130     1                    done
    2.a2 T42  PCM       1% CO2 runs           130     1                    done
    2.a3 T42  PCTM      1% CO2 runs           130     1                    done
    2.a4 T42  CCSM      1% CO2 runs           130     1                    done
    2.a5 T85  CCSM      1% CO2 runs           130     1 
    2.b  T42  CAM+SOM   Sensitivity runs      100     1 
    2.c  T42  ???????   CLIVAR CPT project     ?      ?   ????
 
 
 3. What are the effects of atmospheric resolution in a global coupled
    model on present-day climate simulation and future climate change?
 
    3.a T42 control and 20th century all-forcings and 21st century A2 and B2
         five member ensembles; 
  
    3.b T85 control and 20th century all-forcings and 21st century A2 and B2
         five member ensembles; 
  
    3.c T107 control and 20th century all-forcings and 21st century A2 and B2
         five member ensembles; 
    
    3.d. time slice experiments with T239;
  
    Run    Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ----   ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    3a.con T42  CCSM      control                300    1                    done 
    3a.A2  T42  CCSM      20+21cen A2            230    5 
    3a.b2  T42  CCSM      20+21cen B2            230    5 

    3b.con T85  CCSM      control                300    1 
    3b.a2  T85  CCSM      20+21cen A2            230    5 
    3b.b2  T85  CCSM      20+21cen B2            230    5 

    3c.con T107 CCSM      control                100    1 
    3c.a2  T107 CCSM      20+21cen A2            230    1
    3c.b2  T107 CCSM      20+21cen B2            230    1

    3.d    T239 CCSM      Time Slices             10    5 
 
 
 4. How will ENSO change in a future climate in relation to long term
    changes in base state or other mechanisms?
 
    4.a  T85 Multi-hundred year control run (use 3b.con) 
    4.b  T85 stabilization runs (e.g. 2XCO2 for at least two hundred years),  T85;  
    4.c  T85 five member ensemble all-forcings runs for 20th century;  
    4.d  T85 five member ensemble for A2  (use 3b.a2)
    4.e  T85 five member ensemble for B2  (use 3b.b2)
   
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    4.a  T85  CCSM       Control run           300    1                    3b.con 
    4.b  T85  CCSM       2xCO2                 200    1 
    4.c  T85  CCSM       20Cent all forcing    130    5 
    4.d  T85  CCSM       A2                    100    5                    3b.a2
    4.e  T85  CCSM       B2                    100    5                    3b.b2
 
 5. How will the Asian-Australian monsoon change in a future climate in
    relation to changes in base state or other mechanisms?
 
    5.a  T85 Multi-hundred year control run; (use 3b.con)  
    5.b  T85 stabilization runs (e.g. 2XCO2 for at least two hundred years),  T85;  
    5.c  T85 five member ensemble all-forcings runs for 20th century;  
    5.d  T85 five member ensemble for A2  (use 3b.a2)
    5.e  T85 five member ensemble for B2  (use 3b.b2)
   
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    5.a  T85  CCSM       Control run           300    1                    3b.con 
    5.b  T85  CCSM       2xCO2                 200    1                    4.b     
    5.c  T85  CCSM       20Cent all forcing    130    5                    4.c     
    5.d  T85  CCSM       A2                    100    5                    3b.a2 
    5.e  T85  CCSM       B2                    100    5                    3b.b2 
 
 
 6. How will modes of midlatitude variability change in a future
    climate? (e.g. AO, AAO, storm tracks)
 
    6.a  Multi-hundred year control run; 
    6.b  stabilization runs (e.g. 2XCO2 for at least two hundred years),  T85;  
    6.c  five member ensemble all-forcings runs for 20th century;  
    6.d  five member ensemble for A2
    6.e  five member ensemble for B2
   
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    6.a  T85  CCSM       Control run           300    1                    3b.con 
    6.b  T85  CCSM       2xCO2                 200    1                    4.b  
    6.c  T85  CCSM       20Cent all forcing    130    5                    4.c  
    6.d  T85  CCSM       A2                    100    5                    3b.a2 
    6.e  T85  CCSM       B2                    100    5                    3b.b2 
 
 7. What are the processes that affect the thermohaline circulation in
    future climate and how will those changes affect global  climate?
 
    CMIP coordinated experiments:  
 
    7.a 100 years with CCSM T42 with 0.1 Sv in North Atlantic;  
    7.b 100  years with 0.1 Sv turned off to track recovery;
    7.c 1% CO2 increase run with fresh water flux from control run in
          North Atlantic;
    7.d control run with fresh water flux in north Atlantic from a 1% CO2
           increase run;
    7.e Multi-hundred year control run;
    7.f stabilization runs (e.g. 2XCO2 for at least two hundred years),
            T85;
    7.g five member ensemble all-forcings runs for 20th century;
    7.h five member ensemble for A2
    7.i five member ensemble for B2
  
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    7.a  T42  CCSM       .1 Sv in NA           100    1                    done 
    7.b  T42  CCSM       .1 Sv off in NA       100    1                    done
    7.c  T42  CCSM       1%CO2                 100    1                    
    7.d  T42  CCSM       Control w/ 7.c NA_FWF 100    1                    
    7.e  T85  CCSM       Control run           300    1                    3b.con  
    7.f  T85  CCSM       2xCO2                 200    1                    4.b  
    7.g  T85  CCSM       20Cent all forcing    130    5                    4.c  
    7.h  T85  CCSM       A2                    100    5                    3b.a2 
    7.i  T85  CCSM       B2                    100    5                    3b.b2 
 
 8. How do changes of base state in future climate affect modes of
    decadal variability, and how could decadal variability mechanisms be
    affected by or interact with external forcing changes? (e.g. the
    mid-1970s change)
 
    8.a  Multi-hundred year control run; 
    8.b  stabilization runs (e.g. 2XCO2 for at least two hundred years),  T85;  
    8.c  five member ensemble all-forcings runs for 20th century;  
    8.d  five member ensemble for A2
    8.e  five member ensemble for B2
   
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    8.a  T85  CCSM       Control run           300    1                    3b.con 
    8.b  T85  CCSM       2xCO2                 200    1                    4.b  
    8.c  T85  CCSM       20Cent all forcing    130    5                    4.c  
    8.d  T85  CCSM       A2                    100    5                    3b.a2 
    8.e  T85  CCSM       B2                    100    5                    3b.b2 
 
 9. How will weather and climate extremes change in the future?
 
    9.a  Multi-hundred year control run; 
    9.b  stabilization runs (e.g. 2XCO2 for at least two hundred years),  T85;  
    9.c  five member ensemble all-forcings runs for 20th century;  
    9.d  five member ensemble for A2
    9.e  five member ensemble for B2
   
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    9.a  T85  CCSM       Control run           300    1                    3b.con 
    9.b  T85  CCSM       2xCO2                 200    1                    4.b  
    9.c  T85  CCSM       20Cent all forcing    130    5                    4.c  
    9.d  T85  CCSM       A2                    100    5                    3b.a2 
    9.e  T85  CCSM       B2                    100    5                    3b.b2 

10. How can we better quantify uncertainty of climate change projections?

    10.a  Multi-hundred year control run; 
    10.b  stabilization runs (e.g. 2XCO2 for at least two hundred years),  T85;  
    10.c  five member ensemble all-forcings runs for 20th century;  
    10.d  five member ensemble for A2
    10.e  five member ensemble for B2
    10.f "daughter" AMIP-type experiments with SSTs and constituents
          for end of 21st century for A2 and B2
   
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    10.a  T85  CCSM       Control run           300    1                   3b.con 
    10.b  T85  CCSM       2xCO2                 200    1                   4.b  
    10.c  T85  CCSM       20Cent all forcing    130    5                   4.c  
    10.d  T85  CCSM       A2                    100    5                   3b.a2 
    10.e  T85  CCSM       B2                    100    5                   3b.b2 
    10.f  T85  CCSM       AMIP                   10    5 


11. How will global temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and the
    cycling of water change in a future climate?

    11.a  Multi-hundred year control run; 
    11.b  stabilization runs (e.g. 2XCO2 for at least two hundred years),  T85;  
    11.c  five member ensemble all-forcings runs for 20th century;  
    11.d  five member ensemble for A2
    11.e  five member ensemble for B2
   
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    11.a  T85  CCSM       Control run           300    1                   3b.con 
    11.b  T85  CCSM       2xCO2                 200    1                   4.b  
    11.c  T85  CCSM       20Cent all forcing    130    5                   4.c  
    11.d  T85  CCSM       A2                    100    5                   3b.a2 
    11.e  T85  CCSM       B2                    100    5                   3b.b2 

12. What are the primary forcings of the earth system, and how do
    changes in atmospheric constituents and solar radiation drive global
    climate?

    12.a Ensemble runs with single and combinations of forcings for 20th
         century with PCM (completed);

    12.b Single forcing runs with CCSM T85 to check for consistency with
         PCM results;

    Run    Res  Model    Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ------ ---  ------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    12.b1  T85  CCSM     20 Cent solar          130    5                    
    12.b2  T85  CCSM     20 Cent GHG            130    5                    
    12.b3  T85  CCSM     20 Cent volcano        130    5                     
    12.b4  T85  CCSM     20 Cent All-forcing    130    5                    4.c 
                                                                            

13. What are the sign and nature of the feedbacks of future climate
    change when a fully coupled carbon cycle is included in a global
    coupled climate model?

    13.a Fully coupled carbon cycle in CSM1, five member ensemble runs
         for 20th century and 21st century

    Run    Res  Model    Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ------ ---  ------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    13.a   T42  CSM1     20+21Cent Carbon Cycle 230    5 



14. What are the effects of changes in global land cover and land use?

    14.a Land use change experiments with PCM for specified time periods;  

    14.b T85 CCSM experiments with land use change, urbanization and
          soil degradation

    Run    Res  Model    Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes
    ------ ---  ------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------
    14.a   T42  PCM      Land Use Changes        130   5 
    14.b1  T85  CCSM     Land Use Changes        130   5 
    14.b2  T85  CCSM     Urbanization            130   5 
    14.b3  T85  CCSM     Soil Degradiation       130   5 
    14.b4  T85  CCSM     ALL land changes        130   5 


15. How is global sea level affected by climate change?

    15.a  Multi-hundred year control run; 
    15.b  stabilization runs (e.g. 2XCO2 for at least two hundred years),  T85;  
    15.c  five member ensemble all-forcings runs for 20th century;  
    15.d  five member ensemble for A2
    15.e  five member ensemble for B2
    15.f "daughter" AMIP-type experiments with SSTs and constituents
          for end of 21st century for A2 and B2
   
    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    15.a  T85  CCSM       Control run           300    1                   3b.con 
    15.b  T85  CCSM       2xCO2                 200    1                   4.b  
    15.c  T85  CCSM       20Cent all forcing    130    5                   4.c  
    15.d  T85  CCSM       A2                    100    5                   3b.a2 
    15.e  T85  CCSM       B2                    100    5                   3b.b2 
    15.f  T85  CCSM       AMIP                   10    5 

16. What are the effects of scenario uncertainty in projections of climate
    change?

    16. 21st century climate change simulations with T85 CCSM for SRES
        A2, B2, A1FI, A1B, and B1, single realizations for the last
        three, five member ensembles with the first two;

    Run  Res  Model     Description           Years Runs  CPUhr   Gbytes  Status
    ---- ---  -------   --------------------- ----- ----  ------- ------  ------
    16.a T85  CCSM      SRES A2   21st Cent      100   5                   3b.a2 
    16.b T85  CCSM      SRES B2   21st Cent      100   5                   3b.b2  
    16.c T85  CCSM      SRES A1F1 21st Cent      100   5                     
    16.d T85  CCSM      SRES A1B  21st Cent      100   1                    
    16.e T85  CCSM      SRES B1   21st Cent      100   1