CGD Research: CCR Overview

Climate Change Research: Paleoclimate Research

Paleoclimatic Evidence For Future Ice Sheet Instability And Rapid Sea Level Rise

Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought. Overpeck, J.T., B.L. Otto-Bliesner, G.H. Miller, D.R. Muhs, R. Alley, J.T. Kiehl, 2006.

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation.

 

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Polar Projection

Figure 14. (High resolution image) Simulated climate for each of four time periods, from left to right: present day (Modern), 130,000 years ago (anomalies from present day, D LIG), 2100 A.D. (the time atmosphere reaches three times preindustrial CO2 levels, climate anomalies from present day, D AD 2100), and 2130 A.D. (four times preindustrial CO2 levels, climate anomalies from present day, D AD 2130). Shown for each time period are peak summertime (July to August and January to February means) surface air temperature and annual snow depth. Note significant warming at north polar latitudes and the lack of any summer warming over Antarctic at 130,000 years ago.