CGD People in the News

Warren Washington a Presenter at the 2007 Banneker Institute Awards Gala
Warren Washington, CGD senior scientist and head of the Climate Change Research Section, was a presenter at the 2007 Benjamin Banneker Institute for Science and Technology awards gala on November 7, 2007. The Banneker Institute was founded, with support from Congress, to address low participation rates of African Americans in science and math related studies and professions; it works to identify, create, and/or support pilot projects designed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the most promising approaches. Bill Cosby, actor/comedian/activist, was the keynote speaker. [View larger image and caption]

Earth Monitoring: Not enough eyes on the prize
The capacity of the United States to monitor Earth's vital signs is being stymied by tight budgets and poor coordination. It seems like such a little thing, the ability to lie back and look up at the full Moon. A moment of wonder or romance on a summer evening, perhaps, but not something vital to the way you do your job. Unless, that is, your job is measuring the amount of photosynthesis going on in Earth's oceans.

Earth Monitoring: The planetary panopticon
Technology will soon allow the world to be mapped in near-real time and at high resolution. Declan Butler investigates the potential for operational monitoring of the planet.

The Arctic's alarming sea change
The Arctic ice cap shrank so much this summer that waves briefly lapped along two long-imagined Arctic shipping routes, the Northwest Passage over Canada and the Northern Sea Route over Russia. Over all, the floating ice dwindled to an extent unparalleled in a century or more, by several estimates.

A Global Climate of Change
Global warming and its dire consequences have at long last permeated the special interest barriers and are at the centre of political debate. A recent EU Research magazine produced a special feature with the title: "Climate Change: We can't wait any longer," stating: "The 4th IPCC report was issued and adopted this spring amidst a blaze of publicity and debate. It summarises two decades of important multidisciplinary research and formally concludes that the symptoms of global warming due to human activity are all too real, and will inevitably progress faster than was previously thought. We must act."

Global Warming Inaction More Costly Than Solutions?
Whether or not people are heating up the planet, the best course of action is to do something about global warming, some experts are arguing. But others think that's moving too fast.

Are sunspots prime suspects in global warming?
It's a modern-day climate scuffle William Herschel would recognize. He should. He helped trigger it. In 1801, the eminent British astron­­omer reported that when sunspots dotted the sun's surface, grain prices fell. When sunspots waned, prices rose. He suggested that shifts in grain prices were a stand-in for shifts in climate. Large numbers of sunspots led to a warmer sun, he reasoned. With more warmth reaching Earth, crop yields would increase, depressing grain prices. With that, a 200-year hunt began for links between shifts in the sun's output and changes in climate. . . unless you can come up with ways to amplify it," says Tom Wigley, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, ...

Acid Rain Has A Disproportionate Impact On Coastal Waters
The release of sulfur and nitrogen into the atmosphere by power plants and agricultural activities plays a minor role in making the ocean more acidic on a global scale, but the impact is greatly amplified in the shallower waters of the coastal ocean, according to new research by atmospheric and marine chemists. Ocean "acidification" occurs when chemical compounds such as carbon dioxide, sulfur, or nitrogen mix with seawater, a process which lowers the pH and reduces the storage of carbon. Doney collaborated on the project with Natalie Mahowald,Jean-Francois Lamarque, and Phil Rasch of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Richard Feely of the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Fred Mackenzie of the University of Hawaii, and Ivan Lima of the WHOI Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry Department.

Volcanoes to cool climate? Get real, say experts
Dimming the sun to minimise the effects of global warming, as some have proposed, may bring on drought, scientists say. They are commenting on proposals to emulating the sun-dimming effects of large volcanic eruptions to slow the earth's greenhouse effect. Their study of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines shows that the far-flung effects of its sun-blocking particles led to a marked decrease in precipitation worldwide. "They're all designed to cut the incoming [solar] radiation," says climate researcher Dr Kevin Trenberth, referring to various proposals to geoengineer our way out of global warming.

"Volcano Cure" for Warming? Not So Fast, Study Says
A controversial theory proposes mimicking volcanoes to fight global warming. But throwing sulfur particles into the sky may do more harm than good, a new study says. The temporary solution would pump particles of sulfur high into the atmosphere—simulating the effect of a massive volcano by blocking out some of the sun's rays. This intervention, advocates argue, would buy a little time to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But as well as cooling the planet, the sulfur particles would reduce rainfall and cause serious global drought, a new study says."It is a Band-Aid fix that does not work," said study co-author Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado.

Subway Flooding: Expect More
The likely intensification of extreme weather events from global warming could mean that urbanites have more events like last week’s subway flooding in New York City to look forward to in the future. . . "All storms reach out and grab the available water vapor and concentrate it, and so it rains harder when it does rain," agreed climatologist Kevin Trenberth, also of NCAR, in an email interview.

'Sunshade' for global warming could cause drought
MIMICKING volcanoes has been proposed as a last-ditch solution to climate change. The idea is that pumping sulphur particles into the atmosphere would reproduce the cooling effect of a large eruption. All very well - except it now seems it could also cause catastrophic drought. Kevin Trenberth and Aiguo Dai of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado have shown that a "sulphur sunshade" could have a deleterious effect on the environment by reducing rainfall.

Are Britain's Floods Linked to Global Warming?
Though Britain is known for its typically rainy climate, the torrential downpours of the past month have been anything but typical. The relentless rains have brought central Britain the worst floods it's seen in half a century, and some wonder whether global warming might be to blame. But that link is hard to make, scientists say. . . "I would want to see sort of a sustained pattern over a longer period of time, at least 10 to 20 years," Yin told LiveScience. "The issue with extreme kinds of events is that because they're rare, it's hard to say statistically that there's been a shift or a change." But even though deluges will happen, global warming will increase the likelihood of their happening by changing the environment, said NCAR climatologist Kevin Trenberth.

Missing carbon mystery: Case solved?
They looked for it here and they looked for it there, but the carbon had vanished into thin air. So it seemed in the case of the 'missing carbon sink', a billion tonnes of human-generated carbon assumed to be absorbed by northern forests, but unaccounted for in field studies. . . Researchers led by Britton Stephens from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado in the USA have now found an answer to this mystery. In a paper published in Science, they show that tropical forests are absorbing about one billion tonnes more carbon than previously thought and that northern mid-latitude forests are absorbing 0.9 billion tonnes, or 38%, less than assumed up until now.

Med brewing up for a hurricane
THE Mediterranean could start generating its own hurricanes if sea temperatures keep rising, a study has warned. . . Gaertner’s computer models showed a general increase in storm intensity with some scenarios predicting hurricanes. . . "The increases in sea surface temperature in these hurricane breeding grounds cannot be explained by natural processes alone," said Tom Wigley, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), in Boulder, Colorado. "The best explanation for these changes has to include a large human influence." Kevin Trenberth, head of the climate analysis section of NCAR, said climate change would bring stronger storms to the Mediterranean although its landlocked geography meant it would seldom be possible for them to become hurricanes. He said: "The scientific record shows global warming is raising sea-surface temperatures. Observation and theory suggest that hurricanes are becoming more intense as the earth warms."

Sweaty? Blame global warming
When it comes to global warming, climatologists say, it's not just the heat, it's the humidity. . . Because heat and humidity are so closely related, it was one of the first places looked at when climatologists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, or NCAR, in Colorado sought evidence of global warming. "If there's global warming, you almost have to find it," NCAR project scientist John Fasullo said, referring to expanding humidity. "We found it." Recent research has found water vapor increasing around the world -- about 4 percent more than 30 years ago -- a byproduct of global oceans warming by 1 degree Fahrenheit, explained climatologist Kevin Trenberth, who has co-authored research with Fasullo.

Study: All forests not created equal
The study, led by Britton Stephens of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, concluded that intact tropical forests are removing an unexpectedly high proportion of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, thereby partially offsetting carbon entering the air through industrial emissions and deforestation.

Mysteries of carbon uptake unravel: Less northern forest absorption, more in tropics
"We've had this big mystery for a long time that we haven't been able to solve," said NCAR's Britton Stephens, lead author of the study published this week in the journal, Science. "Now we'll be able to get a much better handle on where the carbon is being taken up and why."

Jungles drink up greenhouse gases
The world's tropical forests - already known as havens for a diversity of beetles and birds - may also protect the planet from runaway global warming by sucking greenhouse gases out of the air, a new study suggests.
Jungles remove one-fourth of human greenhouse-gas emissions every year, according to an international team of scientists led by Britt Stephens at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder.
"Tropical forests are helping much more than we realized," Stephens said.
The new study, which appears today in the journal Science, may also solve a scientific mystery that has baffled climate scientists for years, Stephens said: the case of the missing carbon.

Ready? Storm season now upon us - Global warming's effects on hurricanes under some debate
If you subscribe to the theory that global warming is injecting hurricanes with the meteorological equivalent of steroids, as a growing body of scientists do, then you especially aren't looking forward to hurricane season. . . The IPCC stopped short of predicting an increase in the number of storms due to global warming. Instead, many scientists chalk up the latest bout of monster storms, such as hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, to natural, decades-long storm cycles. . . That theory didn't square with Kevin Trenberth and Dennis Shea, two researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. In a paper published last year by the American Geophysical Union, the pair theorized that global warming accounted for about half of the record warmth in the tropical Atlantic in 2005, a year that saw 28 storms, a record itself. They argued that global warming added about eight-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit to those waters. Natural cycles explained less than two-tenths of the rise in temperature. More...

Long-Range Climate Forecast: Pack Your Umbrella - Climate Models May Underestimate How Much Rain Global Warming Will Bring
Global warming, which helps supercharge rain clouds by pumping more water vapor into the atmosphere, will lead to more intense rain and snowfall than some climate models predict, according to a new study. . . Some climate modelers praised the new research, but said more work needed to be done to reconcile why the satellite observations offered such different predictions than the climate models. "That's how this is supposed to work," said Gerry Meehl, a research scientist and climate modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "When we get new observations, or a new way of looking at observations, I think that really is helpful to us to try and improve the model." More...

Study: Climate change models overstate droughts
There will be more flooding and less drought than has been forecast in widely used projections of global warming, according to a new study. . . The February IPCC report said global warming makes it "very likely" that storms bringing heavy rains will occur more often in coming decades. The satellite study shows rainfall falling in patterns that mirror IPCC projections, but in greater amounts. . . That finding "will help us to improve the models," says Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "That's how climate science is supposed to work." More...

Global warming-hurricane link spurs controversy
Climate scientists agree there have been a lot of strong hurricanes lately. They agree that warmer seas have given these storms some extra punch. But they disagree how much global warming is to blame. . . "As far as I can tell, there is no dispute that higher sea temperatures mean more energy for these storms to feed on," said Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. Trenberth said the next logical question is, how have sea surface temperatures changed over the last 30 years or so, "and that's where the global warming aspects come in and that's where some of the dispute seems to lie." More...

More Carbon per Kilowatt
Stopping the runaway train of world carbon emissions is getting harder by the day, a new global analysis suggests. The culprit is a voracious global appetite for carbon-heavy fossil fuels. . . China is a big driver. . . Other experts warn that economic data coming out of China may not be reliable. And "basing a change in trend on just 2 years' data really is a bit of a stretch," says Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, although he adds that it's good to alert people to the possibility. More...

Hurricane Predictors Expect a Busy Storm Season
. . . Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the federally funded National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., says one area of scientific agreement that doesn't get much attention involves the amount of rain coming from hurricanes and other storms. It is increasing because warmer water puts more water vapor into the air, and more water vapor means more rain. "Since about 1970, we've been able to determine that there's about a 4 percent increase in water vapor over the global oceans," Trenberth said, "and so we're seeing that, indeed, when it rains, it pours — much more so now than it did a few years ago." More...

NASA: Eastern U.S. to Get Hotter
Future eastern United States summers look much hotter than originally predicted with daily highs about 10 degrees warmer than in recent years by the mid-2080s, a new NASA study says. . . . There is an established link between rainy and cooler weather and hot and drier weather, said Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. . . . Trenberth said the link between dryness and heat works, but he is a little troubled by the computer modeling done by Lynn and Druyan and points out that recently the eastern United States has been wetter and cooler than expected. A top U.S. climate modeler, Jerry Mahlman, criticized the study as not matching models up correctly and "just sort of whistling in the dark a little bit." More...

Climate change: Is this what it takes to save the world?
. . . On hearing of Crutzen's paper, Tom Wigley, a veteran climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, decided to look at what such a programme might achieve in the short term. He realized that the almost instantaneous cooling effect of the sulphates could be used to buy the time needed for emissions reductions to start having an effect. . . . Only six years later, under the influence of the Crutzen paper, are other researchers with GCMs starting to look at radiation management. Last month, for instance, Wigley's colleague Phil Rasch unveiled some preliminary results in a seminar at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. More...

Most Expensive Beachfront Homes
. . . Then there are rising sea levels. Dr. Kevin E. Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, points out that worldwide sea levels have risen 1.6 inches in the last 12 years. "There's a certain amount of resiliency around the coast because tides are always changing the sea level," he says. "The biggest risk that insurance companies are worried about is if there's a storm surge on top of a high tide and rising sea level--it's the coincidence of those three things that causes problems." More...

Arctic Sea Ice Is Melting Fast - Researchers find that Arctic ice is disappearing much faster than predicted in UN models
. . . In the new study, scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the National Snow & Ice Data Center, in Boulder, Colo., compared decades of measurements by ships, airplanes, and satellites and found that the area of September sea ice actually declined 7.8% per decade over that period. As a consequence, they predict that if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, the Arctic will be ice-free in September as soon as 2020. "Although the ice is disappearing faster than the computer models indicate, both the observations and the models point in the same direction: The Arctic is losing ice at an increasingly rapid pace, and the impact of greenhouse gases is growing," says NCAR scientist Marika M. Holland, one of the study's coauthors. More...

Arctic melt worse than predictions
. . . According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which releases the third of three reports into the causes, consequences and mitigation of global warming in Thailand this week, the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by the latter part of the 21st century. But the research, conducted by the U.S.-based National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), demonstrates that the 18 models on which the IPCC has based its current recommendations could already be out of date -- and that the retreat of the ice could already be 30 years ahead of the IPCC's worst case scenario. . . . "While the ice is disappearing faster than the computer models indicate, both observations and the models point in the same direction: the Arctic is losing ice at an increasingly rapid pace and the impact of greenhouse gases is growing," said co-author Marika Holland of NCAR. More...

Arctic sea ice smaller than ever, melting faster than predicted, satellite images show
. . . But in a new study published Tuesday, scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center and the National Center for Atmospheric Research conclude that the shrinking summertime Arctic pack ice is about 30 years ahead of the climate model projections. . . . One of the authors, Marika Holland, a scientist at the snow-and-ice center, prepared one of the models for the IPCC. More...

Arctic Sea Ice Melting Faster, a Study Finds (login required)
. . . With an expert from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, also in Boulder, they then compared the observed trends with the projections made for the climate panel's review using the world's most advanced computer models of climate. Dr. Stroeve's team found that since 1953 the area of sea ice in September has declined at an average rate of 7.8 percent per decade. Computer climate simulations of the same period had an average rate of ice loss of 2.5 percent per decade. The finding implies that the Arctic ice may be quicker to respond to warming as concentrations of heat-trapping gases rise in coming decades, said Marika Holland, an author of the new paper and a computer modeler at the Boulder climate center. More...

Arctic ice is melting 'three times faster'
. . . The NCAR researchers said their observations indicate the retreat of summertime Arctic sea ice is about 30 years ahead of the pace projected by climate models. NCAR scientist Marika Holland, co-author of today's study, said: "While the ice is disappearing faster than the computer models indicate, both observations and the models point in the same direction. "The Arctic is losing ice at an increasingly rapid pace and the impact of greenhouse gases is growing." More...

Study: Arctic ice shrinking quickly - Researchers find IPCC report too conservative
. . . Researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center compared model simulations with observations of Arctic ice cover from 1953 to 2006. They found that none of the 18 models used in the 2007 IPCC report would have predicted the extent of sea-ice retreat over the past five decades, and the actual shrinking of summer ice is about 30 years ahead of schedule. . . . Climate models depend on numerous variables, so it's hard to isolate one cause for error, said NCAR scientist Marika Holland, one of the study's co-authors. But the findings will help NCAR and other labs fine-tune their next round of climate models, she said. More...

Arctic sea ice melting three times faster than projected
. . . Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado in Boulder concluded, using actual measurements, that Arctic sea ice has declined at an average rate of about 7.8 percent per decade between 1953 and 2006. . . . ''While the ice is disappearing faster than the computer models indicate, both observations and the models point in the same direction: the Arctic is losing ice at an increasingly rapid pace and the impact of greenhouse gases is growing,'' said NCAR scientist Marika Holland, one of the study's co-authors. More...

Arctic melt faster than forecast
. . . Dr Scambos co-authored the latest study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, with other scientists from NSIDC and from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), also in Boulder, Colorado. . . . Models are always verified against real-world data from the recent past to see how well their output mimics reality. The collection scrutinised here calculated an average decline of only 2.5% per decade for 1953-2006, and 4.3% per decade since 1979 - both well short of the real-world observations. "There are lessons here for the climate modelling community," acknowledged NCAR's Marika Holland. "The rate of ice loss, and the location of ice loss - these are things that the models need to improve, and there are physical processes such as the release of methane from melting permafrost that the models don't include." More...

Arctic sea ice melting much faster, experts find - Study indicates that U.N. reports on warming are too conservative
. . . The shrinking of summertime ice is about 30 years ahead of the climate model projections, researchers with the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center report in the online edition of the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters. . . . NCAR scientist and co-author Marika Holland added that "while the ice is disappearing faster than the computer models indicate, both observations and the models point in the same direction: the Arctic is losing ice at an increasingly rapid pace and the impact of greenhouse gases is growing." More...

Hurricane forecaster: Oceans, not CO2, cause global warming
. . . Gray, a Colorado State University researcher best known for his annual forecasts of hurricanes along the U.S. Atlantic coast, also said increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere won't produce more or stronger hurricanes. . . . "There's no way that doubling CO2 is going to cause that amount of warming," he said. Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, said natural changes in the environment cannot account for the magnitude of global warming in the past four decades. "Since about 1970, the global temperature change is outside of the range of natural variability," he said in an interview. . . . "Global warming is pervasive. It has an influence on everything," Trenberth said. "It has an influence on ocean currents, it has an influence on hurricanes, it has an influence on rainfall." More...

Experts discourage extreme global warming fixes - A mock volcano or artificial 'trees' would create risks, they say
. . . Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said mankind already has harmed Earth's climate inadvertently, so it's foolish to think that people can now fix it with a few drastic measures. But at Trenberth's same Boulder, Colo., research center, climate scientist Tom Wigley is exploring that mock volcano idea. "It's the lesser of two evils here (the other being doing nothing)," Wigley said. "Whatever we do, there are bad consequences, but you have to judge the relative badness of all the consequences." More...

100 Biggest Weather Moments
The Weather Channel's 5 day series 100 Biggest Weather Moments features several people from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Tim Spangler, Nancy Knight and Charles Knight are featured in the first hour. The second hour features Richard Anthes, Tim Killeen, Elisabeth Holland and Bob Henson. Bob Henson, Elisabeth Holland, Tim Spangler, Tim Killeen, Roger Wakimoto, Charles Knight, Matt Kelsch, and Richard Anthes are featured in the third hour. Bob Henson, Elisabeth Holland, and Roger Wakimoto are featured in the fourth hour. Hour five features Tim Killeen, Richard Anthes, Warren Washington and Roberta Johnson. More...

Sorting out the truth on global warming
. . . Indeed, scientists acknowledge that there are benefits from global warming. They noted at a news conference last week that some apples taste better because the growing season is longer. And as the Earth warms, frigid locales will be more temperate and presumably more desirable. But the scientists who wrote the IPCC study say they are concerned because the Earth has been warming so fast. "With just a small increase in the average temperature, you get a big increase in the extremes," said Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and a lead author of the IPCC study. More...

Man vs. Nature and the New Meaning of Drought
. . . In the Southwest, even after rains, major reservoirs may not return to their full capacity. An El Niño event during the winter of 2004 brought some relief to the region, "but it still left the big lakes, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, well below normal, and so from a hydrological standpoint, the drought really didn't end at that time. It just stopped getting worse," said Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). More...

Global warming is focus of ECU lecture
Reading the title screen of his PowerPoint presentation Thursday, Kevin Trenberth's point wasn't hard to miss: "Global Warming is Unequivocal." Trenberth, head of the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., backed his contention with slide after slide of data, on rising global temperatures and sea levels, higher levels of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and resulting upticks in hurricane activity and intensity. More...

Timeline: The Frightening Future of Earth
. . . While putting specific dates on these traumatic potential events is challenging, this timeline paints the big picture and details Earth's future based on several recent studies and the longer scientific version of the IPCC report, which was made available to LiveScience. . . . 2040 - The Arctic Sea could be ice-free in the summer, and winter ice depth may shrink drastically. Other scientists say the region will still have summer ice up to 2060 and 2105. (Marika Holland, NCAR, Geophysical Research Letters) More...

Study: Global Warming Could Hinder Hurricanes
. . . Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research who was not affiliated with the study, pointed out that the model predictions in the new study were averaged. For a given four-year period, for instance, three years could yield suppressed hurricane development, while the fourth could turn out like 2005 (the season that generated Hurricane Katrina), he said. More...

Permanent drought predicted for Southwest - Study says global warming threatens to create a Dust Bowl-like period. Water politics could also get heated.
. . . For the U.S., the biggest problem would be water shortages. The seven Colorado River Basin states — Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona and California — would battle each other for diminished river flows. Mexico, which has a share of the Colorado River under a 1944 treaty and has complained of U.S. diversions in the past, would join the struggle. Inevitably, water would be reallocated from agriculture, which uses most of the West's supply, to urban users, drying up farms. California would come under pressure to build desalination plants on the coast, despite environmental concerns. "This is a situation that is going to cause water wars," said Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "If there's not enough water to meet everybody's allocation, how do you divide it up?" More...

Serious drought may strike western US
The western US may be heading towards a return to the dustbowl landscape that devastated the prairies of the 1930s, climatologists warn. . . . "Since the late 1990s, precipitation has trended downward in much of the western US," says Aiguo Dai of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, US. "But over the last 50 years, much of the US, including the west has [seen] increased precipitation." More...

Forecaster predicts 'very active' Atlantic hurricane season
. . . Many climate researchers now believe that global warming — the buildup of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere, mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels — is a key player. "The sea temperatures have risen from global warming by about 1°F since 1970," says Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "Global warming in my view is still there, and everything else is riding on that. That's what helps make for a more active season, along with other favorable conditions. It provides a new base level that all the other fluctuations ride upon." More...

Getting Warmer - Democrats (and a few Republicans) are heading into complex terrain as they devise major legislation to address global warming. A guide to the coming fight.
. . . Is there a connection to be drawn between the reality of global warming and the wackiness of this past winter? Kevin Trenberth, a respected scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, has pioneered the research on the murky connection between El Niño and global warming, and, in his view, as goes the latter, so goes the former. He expects that winters like this past one will only become more common. Trenberth testified on precisely this connection before the new Congress in February. More...

David Schimel, chief executive, National Ecological Observatory Network, Washington DC - David Schimel takes the reins at the National Ecological Observatory Network
. . . Last November, [David] Schimel was appointed as chief executive of the network, which will see a set of sensors and facilities monitor ecosystems throughout the United States. . . . After two years at the Marine Biological Laboratory's Ecosystems Center in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, and a PhD on grasslands at Colorado State University, Schimel joined the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, in 1992. More...

Climate change: who is swindling who?
. . . The programme claimed to lay bare all the fallacies that have created the "great myth" that is man-made global warming. However, the programme itself was riddled with holes. . . . The period of cooling between 1940 and 1970, which the film claimed was proof that the global warming hypothesis is flawed, has a simple and proven explanation. It was caused by industrial sulphate emissions, combined with a cluster of volcanic eruptions, which also emit sulphates. The industrial sulphates have since been partially cleaned up thanks to clean air laws adopted in developed countries. This figure, published by Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in 2004, shows how climate models can reconstruct 20th century temperatures, including the mid-century cooling, using different factors that contribute to both warming and cooling global temperatures. More...

Some Scientists Eye Odd Climate Fixes
. . . Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said mankind already has harmed Earth's climate inadvertently, so it's foolish to think that people can now fix it with a few drastic measures. But at Trenberth's same Boulder, Colo., research center, climate scientist Tom Wigley is exploring that mock volcano idea. "It's the lesser of two evils here (the other being doing nothing)," Wigley said. "Whatever we do, there are bad consequences, but you have to judge the relative badness of all the consequences." More...

Hotter Utah — not all bad?
. . . Data run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder for a nine-state region that includes Utah showed that if carbon dioxide emissions double (a typical prediction), this will mean an increase in annual temperatures of between 6.5 and 11.7 degrees F (depending on who's doing the calculating) by the end of this century. It will also mean an increase in precipitation of at least 54 percent and possibly as much as 184 percent. . . . Caspar Ammann, a climate scientist working at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, also spoke at the symposium, providing graph after graph of colored lines that pointed to bad news. "What-if" scenarios, he said, show even if the world stabilizes greenhouse emissions right now, the world would still warm up a fraction of a degree. If we keep on with "business almost as usual," temperatures will rise 8 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the 21st century, he said. The result, he says, will be "of a magnitude we haven't seen before." He reiterated the conclusion drawn earlier this year in Paris by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that it is "very unlikely" that global climate change of the past 50 years can be explained by natural causes alone. More...

Arctic region hit hardest by human-caused global warming - Despite other forces, fossil fuels causing serious melting
. . . In a report considering a decade of international research, three Boulder researchers agree that complicated forces affect the Arctic. But heat-trapping gases from fossil fuels are the driving cause of warming, the authors conclude in today's journal Science. . . . Marika Holland, a National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist and co-author of the paper, has used NCAR's best climate model to show that thinning Arctic ice could cause rapid ice retreat. The NCAR model showed an ice-free Arctic by 2040. She said the disparity between different climate models' predictions of future Arctic ice extent would probably lessen in the coming years as scientific understanding of the Arctic and the models themselves improve. At NCAR, for example, scientists are already integrating a new sea-ice module into its global model. More...

Arctic ice hits 'tipping point'
Dwindling Arctic sea ice may have reached a 'tipping point' that could make British winters even wetter, according to researchers. . . . The wider impact on temperate regions such as Europe is discussed by Dr Serreze and Julienne Stroeve of the centre and Marika Holland of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research. . . . The potential for such rapid ice loss was highlighted in a December 2006 study co-written by Dr Holland in Geophysical Research Letters. In one climate model simulation, the Arctic Ocean became nearly ice-free in September between 2040 and 2050. "Given the growing agreement between models and observations, a transition to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean as the system warms seems increasingly certain," the researchers write today in Science. More...

Arctic Sea Ice Decline May Trigger Climate Change Cascade
Arctic sea ice that has been dwindling for several decades may have reached a tipping point that could trigger a cascade of climate change reaching into Earth's temperate regions, says a new University of Colorado at Boulder study. . . . "When the ice thins to a vulnerable state, the bottom will drop out and we may quickly move into a new, seasonally ice-free state of the Arctic," Serreze said. "I think there is some evidence that we may have reached that tipping point, and the impacts will not be confined to the Arctic region." A review paper by Serreze and Julienne Stroeve of CU-Boulder's NSIDC and Marika Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research titled "Perspectives on the Arctic's Shrinking Sea Ice Cover" appears in the March 16 issue of Science. . . . The potential for such rapid ice loss was highlighted in a December 2006 study by Holland and her colleagues published in Geophysical Research Letters. In one of their climate model simulations, the Arctic Ocean in September became nearly ice-free between 2040 and 2050. More...

Could crazy technology save the planet?
. . . One of the premier climate modeling centers in the United States, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, has spent the last six weeks running computer simulations of the man-made volcano scenario and will soon turn its attention to the space umbrella idea. . . . Using jet engines, cannons or balloons to get sulfates in the air, humans could reduce the solar heat, and only increase current sulfur pollution by a small percentage, said Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "It's an issue of the lesser of two evils," he said. Scientists at the [National] Center for Atmospheric Research put the idea into a computer climate model. The results aren't particularly cheap or promising, said NCAR scientist Caspar Ammann. It would take tens of thousands of tons of sulfate to be injected into the air each month, he said. "From a practical point of view, it's completely ridiculous," Ammann said. "Instead of investing so much into this, it would be much easier to cut down on the initial problem." Both this technique and the solar umbrella while reducing heating, wouldn't reduce carbon dioxide. More...

Climate change tied to global crop losses - Winter of 2007-07 Warmest on Record
. . . The combined global land and ocean surface temperature in January was 1.53 degrees warmer than the 20th-century average of 53.6 degrees - and still significantly higher than the previous record set in 2002 at 1.28 degrees above average. It "smashed the record," said Kevin Trenberth, head of the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. . . . "This will have an impact on many things that will affect humans, from food and crops but also on all kinds of ecosystems, wildlife, forests, even fisheries and especially things like wildfires, things that can be really devastating." More...

Global warming: Man-made volcano
. . . Using jet engines, cannons or balloons to get sulfates in the air, humans could reduce the solar heat, and only increase current sulfur pollution by a small percentage, said Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "It's an issue of the lesser of two evils," he said. Scientists at the [National] Center for Atmospheric Research put the idea into a computer climate model. The results aren't particularly cheap or promising, said NCAR scientist Caspar Ammann. It would take tens of thousands of tons of sulfate to be injected into the air each month, he said. "From a practical point of view, it's completely ridiculous," Amman sic said. "Instead of investing so much into this, it would be much easier to cut down on the initial problem." More...

Not-So-Perma Frost - Warming climate is taking its toll on subterranean ice
. . . About 42 percent of Canada's land area, or about 4 million square kilometers, overlies permafrost, says Smith. In about half that area, the permafrost is patchy and thin, with a temperature above –2°C. If many scientists' climate-warming scenarios come to pass, Smith says, "permafrost in those regions could ultimately disappear." When it will disappear is another issue. Research published in 2005 sparked a major debate. In that report, climate scientists David M. Lawrence of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., and Andrew G. Slater of the University of Colorado at Boulder suggested that climate warming will wipe out more than 90 percent of the world's near-surface permafrost by the year 2100. . . . Lawrence agrees that the computer model that he and Slater used for their study had some limitations—for instance, it included only the top 3.4 m of the ground and didn't account for conditions associated with some soil types. Thehttp://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20070310/bob10.asp pair has now modified its model to look 50 m into the ground, says Lawrence. More...

On thin ice - It's unequivocal, it's already here
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has spoken: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal" and it is "very likely" due to human activities. . . . [T]he inertia of the climate system and the long life of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere mean that we are already committed to a significant level of climate change. . . . Global warming is apt to be disruptive in many ways. Hence, it is also vital to plan to cope with the changes, such as enhanced droughts, heat waves and wild fires, stronger downpours and risk of flooding. Managing water resources will be a major challenge in the future. More...

Scientists say Asia's soot causing weather imbalance
Pollution from the burning of wood and coal in Asia has spiked in recent years, causing increasingly erratic weather across much of the Northern Hemisphere, scientists say. . . . In essence, the researchers said, the soot particles appeared to seed intense storms that flowed toward North America. . . . Another leading climate scientist, Kevin Trenberth, said he's not even sure that storms across the Pacific Ocean have been increasing. The problem is that there have been major changes in the satellites used to observe the Pacific Ocean. . . . "This does not mean that the effects claimed by the authors are not there," said Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "But you cannot prove that they are in the way they do." More...

Climate already warming, scientist warns
The Earth is heating up, and 113 countries agree climate change is likely due to human activities. That's what Kevin Trenberth, climate scientist from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., told a large crowd Monday night in the Dimick Hall at the Coast Guard Academy. . . . Trenberth also said scientists are worried developing countries, such as China and India, which are seeing a rise in their own middle-class populations, will be contributing greatly to the warming of the Earth. As people accumulate wealth, they buy homes farther from work and use vehicles to get there. They also use air conditioners to cool their homes. "The consequences are quite frightening," Trenberth said. "You ought to be alarmed." More...

Records show January was the hottest ever - Scientists say El Niño, global warming are responsible
It may be cold comfort during a frigid February, but last month was by far the hottest January ever. The broken record was fueled by a waning El Niño and a gradually warming world, according to U.S. scientists who reported the data Thursday. . . . Temperature records break regularly with global warming, [Kevin] Trenberth said, but "with a little bit of El Niño thrown in, you don't just break records, you smash records." More...

West warming faster than rest - Increased-heating trend also found in higher elevations
Average temperatures in the western United States have risen 2 degrees since the mid-1970s — twice as fast as the average global rate of warming, according to work by Boulder scientist Henry Diaz. . . . Kevin Trenberth, head of the climate-analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, said in an e-mail that Diaz's results are not surprising . . . . NCAR scientist Claudia Tebaldi, who works with climate models to predict regional temperature variation, said Diaz's findings are consistent with her research on projections of future heat waves. "The western part of the United States is always warming much more than the rest," she said. More...

Argonne Played Key Role In Latest Climate Study
The Model Coupling Toolkit created by the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory played a key role in the climate simulations used in preparing the new U.N. report "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis." . . . . The Model Coupling Toolkit, or MCT, enabled researchers to "couple" the numerous individual models used in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), one of the principal climate models used in the simulations, into a single system. . . . "The capabilities provided by MCT were essential for the successful application of CCSM in this major international climate assessment," said Bill Collins, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and a contributing author to the climate change report. More...

Warming heats up hurricane debate - Are rising temperatures creating more-intense Atlantic storm seasons?
There's little doubt in Kevin Trenberth's mind that Earth's rising temperatures are causing more intense Atlantic hurricane seasons. . . .Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, was the lead author of a chapter in the new report dealing with hurricane activity. His position is based on weather observations from recent years and simple logic. More...

Man prime suspect for global warming - With global temperatures predicted to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C by 2100, a new study chronicles the human touch to the phenomena.
All the world's a crime scene, and the burgeoning catalog of historical clues has helped researchers zero in on humans as the ‘very likely' suspects behind global warming. . . . "Of course, it has been warmer and colder, but that doesn't mean anything unless you know why," said Reto Knutti, a visiting climate modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. Bette Otto-Bliesner, another climatologist at the Boulder center, said researchers have attributed the warming 125,000 years ago to changes in the Earth's orbit that altered the globe's natural insulation. More...

Tiny chips, big ideas - Computer technology keeps getting smaller, but demand keeps growing for NCAR
There's no paper in Lawrence Buja's office. On his big empty desk sits a big computer screen with a tiny keyboard attached and a smaller screen with a big keyboard. In the corner behind his door perch two espresso makers. Buja is a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Mesa Lab in Boulder. His work takes up a lot of space and time, but it's not captured on pieces of paper tacked to his walls. The bulk of his work and that of his colleagues is tied to supercomputers, like the one that's a floor below Buja's office with a view of Boulder Mountain Park - and the larger, more powerful one that is expected to be built outside of Cheyenne. More...

Whistleblowers get kiss-off - Pro-man-made global warming crowd will do anything to 'sex-up' the threat
It's too bad the world's media doesn't hold the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the same standards that it holds large corporations. . . . Landsea, of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory wrote a lengthy and detailed open letter to his scientific colleagues explaining why he was withdrawing from helping to author the report. . . . Landsea said a lead author for the IPCC report, Dr. Kevin Trenberth, asked him to provide the write-up on Atlantic hurricanes in what he thought would be "a politically neutral determination of what is happening with our climate." More...

International panel found human cause for environmental changes
Human activity is "very likely" causing global climate change, according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change study. . . . "This is just not something you can stop. We're just going to have to live with it," said Kevin Trenberth, the director of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research,. "We're creating a different planet. If you were to come back in 100 years' time, we'll have a different climate." More...

Pelosi Backs Restrictions on Heat-Trapping Gases
. . . Ms. Pelosi spoke along with four climate scientists who worked for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations-sponsored group that issued its latest report last week. The witnesses were Susan Soloman, a senior scientist at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration; Richard Alley, a professor of geosciences at Pennsylvania State University; and Kevin Trenberth and Gerald Meehl, both of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. More...

Lawmakers Question Scientists About Climate Change
Not enough evidence exists that humans are responsible for global warming, so current laws should not be changed to limit greenhouse gas emissions, critics of a global climate change report told a House panel Thursday. . . . Rohrabacher said another scientist testifying at the hearing, Kevin E. Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, acknowledged that a graph he used in his testimony demonstrates an upward trend in temperature, but does not make clear that the starting point of 1850 was at the very end of a 500-year cooling period, a fact Trenberth readily admitted. More...

Climate debate grows heated during House hearing - Boulder scientist confronted over cause of warming
Boulder researcher Susan Solomon defended her stance on human-caused climate change amid challenges - including a question about her scientific credibility - from House Republicans at a hearing Thursday. . . . Two other Boulder scientists also testified. Gerald A. Meehl and Kevin E. Trenberth, both of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, helped write the climate report. More...

Speaker, Republicans clash in global warming hearing
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi used the bully pulpit of her new position Thursday to pressure fellow lawmakers to get legislation to combat global warming ready for a vote this summer. In a highly unusual move for a speaker, the San Francisco Democrat appeared as a witness before the House Science and Technology Committee along with scientists who co-wrote the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which warns of dire consequences if the world does not rein in greenhouse gases. . . . Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, called the assessment a "diagnosis of the vital signs of the Earth." "What we have found is that the planet is running a fever, so to speak, and the prognosis is that it's apt to become much worse," Trenberth said. More...

Special Report With Brit Hume
Global warming: The House Committee on Science and Technology held hearings on the cause of global warming today with some scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. V; House Committee on Science and Technology meeting scenes. V; global warming scenes. SB; Richard Alley, IPCC report author, describes the issues. SB; Gerald Meehl, IPCC report author, describes the issues. SB; Dana Rohrabacher, CA Representative, describes the issues. SB; Susan Solomon, IPCC Co-Chairman, describes the issues. V; cars. V; pollution scenes. SB; James Sensenbrenner, WI Representative, describes the issues. SB; Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, describes the issues. I; Chris Landsea, National Hurricane Center, describes the problems in the IPCC report and why he quit the panel. Molly Henneberg reporting. 00:26:45

Newsradio 780
Global warming hearing. The House Science Committee heard testimony from top scientists involved in last week's international report on global warming. SB; Kevin Trenberth says the planet is running a fever, and it's apt to become much worse. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi appeared before the committee to say congress is going to act on the issue. SB; Pelosi says the long rejection of reality is over. 00:34:50

Hot on their global trail - Crime-scene style hunt for suspects in climate change make a case (a cold one) for greenhouse gases
All the world's a crime scene, and the burgeoning catalog of historical clues has helped researchers zero in on humans as the "very likely" suspects behind global warming. . . . In the new report, released Friday, researchers used nearly two dozen models to produce projections of temperature and sea-level rises, all anchored with multiple lines of evidence. . . . "Of course, it has been warmer and colder, but that doesn't mean anything unless you know why," said Reto Knutti, a visiting climate modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. Bette Otto-Bliesner, another climatologist at the Boulder center, said researchers have attributed the warming 125,000 years ago to changes in the Earth's orbit that altered the globe's natural insulation. Relying on one source of data or on one region of the world would be foolhardy, she and other researchers agree. More...

">Excluded data push warning to red
Warming is already whittling away at Colorado's snowpack vital for both the state's $2 billion ski industry and water supply across the West. Seas could rise up to 23 inches by 2100, as heat waves scorch more people and hurricanes likely get stronger. . . . "As we move into this warmer world we've created, we're starting to see things we've never seen before," said Gerald Meehl, a climate scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. "Earth is already locked into a hotter future because carbon dioxide mainly from burning coal, oil and gas remains in the atmosphere for a century," NCAR scientist Jerry Mahlman said. To stabilize the climate, Mahlman said, we have to reduce our fossil fuel emission by about 70, 75 percent. "This is not a recycle-your-garbage- on-the-street kind of thing," he said. . . . Colorado's average temperature could heat up by 7 or 8 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, according to a U.N. climate change report released in part last week. "That's considerable warming, and it could conceivably be quite a bit greater than that," said Linda Mearns, a climate researcher with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. More...

Five myths about cars and suburbia - Driving isn't the sin it's cracked up to be
. . . We can't deal with global warming unless we stop driving. . . . Tom M.L. Wigley, chief scientist at the U.S. [National] Center for Atmospheric Research, calculates that even if every nation met its obligation to reduce greenhouse gas, the Earth would be only .07 degrees centigrade cooler by 2050. More...

Deal with warming, don't debate it, scientists warn - The U.N.'s stark report puts policymakers on notice, though there is no consensus on action. (login required)
. . . "The world's scientists have spoken," said Timothy E. Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation. "It is time now to hear from the world's policymakers. The so-called and long-overstated 'debate' about global warming is now over." . . . Though global warming cannot be reversed, it can be mitigated, said climatologist Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. If emissions are reduced, "we'll have fewer climate changes and less warming. If they are higher, we'll have much greater changes. The longer you wait to begin reducing emissions, the worse the problem gets and the more you have to do to do something about it." . . . And since the last report was issued, "we have six years of new data, and they are among the seven warmest years on record," said climatologist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. . . . The average temperature in the Southland will probably increase by about 8 degrees by the end of the century and rainfall will decrease, according to climatologist Linda Mearns of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. What rain does fall will evaporate more quickly because of higher temperatures, accentuating the dryness of the climate. More...

Western droughts could become norm, say climate scientists - Climate models suggest Colorado to get hotter, drier
. . . Some of the world's most advanced climate models suggest that Colorado precipitation levels will remain roughly constant as temperatures climb. If that happens, the state will get drier, with less mountain snow in the winter, lower stream flows in the summer, and an increased threat of wildfires. . . . For the first time - because of increased confidence in the more than 20 computerized climate models used in the latest assessment - IPCC included regional projections in its report, said Linda Mearns of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. The models show that the West will warm more than the global average. Winter warming will be 5.6 to 7.9 degrees, and summer temperatures will rise 5.7 to 8.5 degrees, Mearns said. Average year-round increase is about 7 degrees, said Mearns, one of the study authors. . . . A shrinking snowpack and earlier runoff leads to lower summer river flows, along with drier soils and forests, said Kevin Trenberth of NCAR, an author of the new climate report. Dry, stressed trees are more susceptible to wildfires, insects and diseases. Persistently dry soils can succumb to drought. More...

46 countries back group to protect planet
. . . For now, scientists are energized that the world is finally listening to them. Kevin Trenberth, an American co-author of the new climate report, marveled at the overflow crowd of more than 400 reporters on hand for the document's release on Friday. It was more reporters than he'd seen in decades of climate conferences. He took out a small camera, smiled and took a picture of the media. More...

The warm-mongers rest their case
. . . The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, unveiled in the grey UNESCO headquarters in Paris, was concise and to the point. But the graphs and charts projected onto a vast screen, above the heads of the assembled scientists, were even more concise. . . . Naturally, the report came swaddled in the cautious language of science. But that could not smother the sense that history was unfolding. . . . Some of the report's authors noted that the "very likely" link between warming and human activity indicates a more than 90 per cent probability that our actions are to blame, whereas the 2001 report had placed the same odds at only 66 per cent. "This is really the fundamental smoking gun in the report," said Gerald Meehl, of the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research. More...

Humans Faulted For Global Warming - International Panel Of Scientists Sounds Dire Alarm
. . . Declaring that "warming of the climate system is unequivocal," the authors said in their "Summary for Policymakers" that even in the best-case scenario, temperatures are on track to cross a threshold to an unsustainable level. . . . Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the Boulder, Colo.-based National Center for Atmospheric Research, who helped oversee the chapter on climate projections, said that in the next two decades alone, global temperatures will rise by 0.7 degrees Fahrenheit. "We're committed to a certain amount of warming," said Meehl, who worked with 16 computer-modeling teams from 11 countries. "A lot of these changes continue through the 21st century and become more severe as time goes on." Meehl added, however, that a sharp cut in greenhouse gas emissions could still keep catastrophic consequences from occurring: "The message is, it does make a difference what we do." . . . For the first time, IPCC scientists also looked at regional climate shifts in detail . . . . Linda Mearns -- another NCAR senior scientist who was also one of the lead authors -- said these changes could cause water shortages and affect recreational activities in the Southwest. More...

The World at One
UN Climate Report - The IPCC say man is causing climate change. . . . Interview: Dr Kevin Trenberth, National Centre for Atmospheric Research - the tendencies are in the right direction. Al Gore's movie has changed the public's view, and Hurricane Katrina woke up a lot of people.

KING 5 News
KING-TV CH 5 (NBC) (Seattle/Tacoma) (February 2, 2007) DMA: 14
Global Warming: An international panel of scientists are almost positively sure global warming can be linked to human behavior. V; Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Summary. V; traffic footage. SB; Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Program, says fossil fuel use and agricultural land change are affecting the systems on the plant. V; arctic footage. V; South Glass Gate Glacier. V; UN conference in Paris, France. I; Richard Somerville, Climate Control Panel, says there is a greater danger of water shortage. V; Okanogan National Forest. V; fire scene. I; Kevin Trenberth, Climate Control Panel, describes the areas affected most by global warming. I; Jonathon Overpeck, Climate Control Panel, says global warming is affecting the stream flow. V; storm damages. V; drought footage. SB; Philip Mote, WA State Climatologist, discusses environmental immigrants. Gary Chittim reporting from Seattle. 00:37:34

Climate report points finger at fossil fuels
The world is warming, and the burning of fossil fuels is "very likely" to blame, according to a new report released today in Paris by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). . . . "To me, a highlight of the report is the statement that 'warming of the climate is unequivocal,'" Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and lead author of the report's chapter on observations of climate change in the atmosphere and at Earth's surface, told reporters today. . . . The observational data, as well as more sophisticated modeling techniques, have improved the confidence of scientists in the results of the models, and allowed them to make regional, smaller-scale predictions of climate change over the next century for the first time as well, said Linda Mearns of NCAR, who was lead author on the chapter describing model projections of future climate change. Such changes in the United States include reduced winter length throughout the country, increasing dryness in the Southwest and increasing precipitation in the Northeast, where the additional water vapor is also likely to increase the intensity of both storms and snowfall in that region, she said. More...

Global Warming Man-Made, Will Continue
. . . The 21-page summary of the panel's findings released Friday represents the most authoritative science on global warming. The panel comprises hundreds of scientists and representatives of 113 governments. . . . The report said no matter how much civilization slows or reduces its greenhouse gas emissions, global warming and sea level rise will continue on for centuries. "This is just not something you can stop. We're just going to have to live with it," co-author Kevin Trenberth, director of climate analysis for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., told The Associated Press in an interview. "We're creating a different planet. If you were to come up back in 100 years time, we'll have a different climate." . . . Trenberth said scientists do worry that world leaders will take the message in the wrong way and throw up their hands. Instead, the scientists urged leaders to reduce emissions and also adapt to a warmer world with wilder weather. More...

U.N. Panel Says Humans 'Very Likely' Causing Global Warming
. . . For more now on these findings, we turn to Kevin Trenberth, one of the draft contributing authors of the report. He is the director of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. And he joins us from Paris. . . . Mr. Trenberth, beginning with you, the finding that's attracted the most attention today is the one saying that there is really 90-percent certainty now that the climate warming that's already occurred since the middle of the last century is due to human activity. How much warming has there been? And what lead you to that kind of certainty that mankind is at the root of it? KEVIN TRENBERTH, National Center for Atmospheric Research: Well, there's two-steps to this. The first one is what has happened, the observations of what has happened. And I thought a very important statement in the report, you know, to quote, is that, "Warming of the climate is unequivocal." And then it goes on to qualify that, and say that, you know, it's not just the global mean temperatures which, you know, the six years since the last report are in the top warmest seven years on record, but also a whole host of other variables, from snow cover and sea ice, rising sea levels, melting glaciers, drought around the world, changes in hurricanes, all of these kinds of things come together to provide really compelling evidence from many different lines of evidence to suggest that, indeed, warming is happening. More...

PBS News
Global warming: Update on story. V; pollution, flooding, glaciers. GR; climate projections. SB; Yvo de Boer, UN Climate Secretariat, talks about accepting the conclusions. SI; Kevin Trenberth, director of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, Michael Oppenheimer, Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson school, talk about the report on global warming. Margaret Warner reporting. GR; visit PBS.org. 00:22:30

Newsdrive
Global warming - leading scientists are warning that the threat from global warming is much more serious than previously thought. Caroline Hawley reported from the UN announcement. Interview: Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research - warming is unequivocal. Interview: Alex Singleton, Director General, Globalisation Institute - climate change will not be an issue in 50 years, new technologies can solve the problem. 16:13:02

Report: Humans to blame for climate
. . . Other report authors noted that the "very likely" link between warming and human activity indicates a more than 90 percent probability that our actions are to blame, whereas the 2001 report had placed the same odds at only 66 percent. "This is really the fundamental smoking gun in the report," said Gerald Meehl, a co-author and a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in a conference call with reporters. Although the document's authors stressed that their mandate precluded them from including any policy recommendations, their conclusions were quickly seized upon by a host of politicians and environmentalists calling for action. . . . Reflecting a marriage of better observations and modeling, report co-author Linda Mearns, also of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said the report is particularly noteworthy for its regional projections. In the U.S., for example, the report suggest that precipitation will decline in the Southwest and the snow pack will drop in the Rockies while the Northeast will become wetter. a href="http://www.newsday.com/news/health/ny-liwarm0203,0,5107078.story"> More...

Talk Of The Nation
Global warming: An international team of scientists released it's report on global warming and climate change, saying it is very likely that humans have caused global warming and that the trend will continue for the next few centuries. I; Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research, describes this week's meeting of scientists and the conclusions they have drawn about global warming. The evidence shows that the planet is warming, which is causing sea level rising, the melting of polar ice caps, which contributes to the risk of flooding and drought in other areas, and increased hurricanes and heat waves. He describes what can be done to affect the rate of change in the climate and how long it would take to work. 00:18:54

Climate change report says global warming likely caused by humans
Ten Boulder scientists served as lead authors on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report to be released today in Paris, volunteering hundreds of hours each over at least two years in an effort they view as both honor and duty. . . . "I think the scientific community as well as the political community are going to be stunned by the body of evidence and how convincing it is," said Elisabeth Holland, a National Center for Atmospheric Research senior scientist and one of the lead authors. "The evidence is compelling in a way that it never has been before because we just simply didn't have all the pieces." . . . NCAR visiting scientist Reto Knutti worked on results related to climate modeling. He said he spent roughly half his time working on the IPCC report for the past two years. The modeling work for the report, such as that done by NCAR in 2004, constituted a "simply amazing" effort, he said. NCAR scientists worked for years on improving their Community Climate System Model 3 — one of the world's top climate models — and then ran the model on supercomputers during most of 2004 to generate results for the report. . . . NCAR scientist Bette Otto-Bliesner, who studies paleoclimate, said she volunteered to be a lead author because she felt strongly that understanding past climate is relevant to present-day and future climate scenarios. "So to be able to contribute to a chapter in as important a report as this is — telling the community, telling the public what happened in the past, how well we understand it and how well we can model it — is important," Otto-Bliesner said. Lead authors are hand-picked and recognized leaders in their respective fields. Participating is also an honor, said Linda Mearns, an NCAR senior scientist specializing in regional manifestations and impacts of climate change. "For people in climate-change research, I think it's an obligation to contribute one's experience and intelligence to this kind of an international effort," Mearns said. More...

Final Report: Humans Caused Global Warming - The world gets a wake-up call from Paris that climate change is man-made and likely will worsen without emissions curbs
. . . "Some of the models show an ice-free Arctic. We see more severe extremes, heat waves. We see a lot of heavier precipitation, drought increases in a lot of regions. Tropical cyclones are projected to become more intense in a lot of areas with ongoing increases in sea surface temperatures," says Gerald Meehl, an atmospheric scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and a contributing author. "We see what we've already seen but everything becoming a lot more extreme." More...

Boulder's IPCC lead authors
NCAR . . . Guy Brasseur, coordinating lead author, Chapter 7, "Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry. . . . William Collins, lead author, Chapter 10, "Global Climate Projections." . . . Elisabeth Holland, lead author, Chapter 7, "Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry." . . . Reto Knutti, lead author, Chapter 10, "Global Climate Projections." . . . Linda Mearns, lead author, Chapter 11, "Regional Climate Projections." . . . Gerald Meehl, coordinating lead author, Chapter 10, "Global Climate Projections." . . . Bette Otto-Bliesner, lead author, Chapter 6, "Paleoclimate," . . . Kevin Trenberth, coordinating lead author, Chapter 3, "Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change." More...

Climate Experts Say It's Time to Act
. . . "The last six out of seven years were the warmest on record," said Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and lead author of another chapter in the IPCC report. "Sea ice is melting, glaciers are retreating and level is rising." What's more, there are more droughts in tropical and subtropical regions and hurricanes are getting more intense, he said. For years they have been refining climate projections and trying to get the ears of policy makers and business leaders, explained NCAR climate scientist Gerald Meehl, lead author of another chapter in the IPCC report. On the other hand, some changes have come faster and more dramatically than researchers expected, he said. "As we move into the warmer world, we're seeing things that have never before been seen in human history," said Meehl. More...

Climate report's outlook is dire, but challenge isn't insurmountable
. . . Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the Colorado-based National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and lead author of the report's chapter on projections of future climate change, added: "The longer you wait, the worse the problem gets. The longer you wait, the longer it takes (to fix)." . . . Linda Mearns, who heads NCAR's Institute for the Study of Society and the Environment, said ordinary citizens and local and regional politicians already are leading the response to climate change in the USA, which produces about one-quarter of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. "Since we haven't had a lot of clear leadership at the top, it has actually created opportunity for more grassroots efforts," said Mearns, one of the report's lead authors on regional climate projections. She called it "truly extraordinary" that more than 375 U.S. mayors, representing one-third of the nation's population, have signed a pact pledging to cut greenhouse gases in their communities. More...

Climate Change Science Moves from Proof to Prevention - Scientists have spent the past six years combing the seas, skies, land and space for data on climate change
. . . Simple observation confirms the basic science of climate change. "All six years since the last report (2001 to 2006) are among the seven warmest years on record," notes Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and another lead author. "Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased and Arctic Sea ice has been at record low levels in the past three years." . . . "The human signal has clearly emerged from the noise of natural variability," NCAR's Trenberth adds. "Numerous changes in climate have been observed at the scales of continents or ocean basins. These include wind patterns, precipitation, ocean salinity, sea ice, ice sheets and aspects of extreme weather." More...

A clearer global climate forecast - A report coming Friday will offer the strongest consensus yet on how the Earth will change.
[P]rojecting future climate is a dicey proposition. High-powered computers are loaded with mind-numbing programs whose math represents a range of key processes in the oceans, atmosphere, and land. Scientists enter a few key numbers at start-up, such as the sun's radiation level and levels of greenhouse gases at a beginning time, then press "enter." . . . Still, "we're not completely sure of a lot of the physics, and it's hard to build a model for something you don't understand," says William Collins, a modeler at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "We don't know the trajectory for man-made greenhouse gases over the next century." More...

Fossil fuels are to blame, world scientists conclude
. . . The gold-standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report represents "a real convergence happening here, a consensus that this is a total global no-brainer," says U.S. climate scientist Jerry Mahlman, former director of the federal government's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in New Jersey. "The big message that will come out is the strength of the attribution of the warming to human activities," says researcher Claudia Tebaldi of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. . . . In Paris this week, the process of negotiating and revising the short summary is painstaking and "line by line," says Kevin Trenberth, one of the lead authors and climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. More than 100 of the panel's 193 member nations are taking part in the negotiations on the summary, he says. More...

Eiffel Tower to Go Dark Ahead of Report
The Eiffel Tower's 20,000 flashing lights will go dark for five minutes Thursday evening, hours before scientists and officials unveil a long-awaited report on global warming. . . . There was little sign of the late-night wrangling among countries that marked previous reports. The report must be unanimously approved by bureaucrats from more than 100 governments who can challenge the scientists' wording. "The government people determine how things are said, but we (the scientists) determine what is said," said Kevin Trenberth, a lead author of the report and director of climate analysis at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. More...

Local Briefs - NCAR scientist wins award
Warren M. Washington, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, has received a Charles Franklin Brooks Award from the American Meteorological Society, officials announced Monday. . . . He specializes in computer modeling of Earth's climate and has published more than 100 papers in professional journals, as well as the book "An Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling" with co-author Claire Parkinson. More...

Melting ice means global warming report all wet, say some experts
Later this week in Paris, climate scientists will issue a dire forecast for the planet that warns of slowly rising sea levels and higher temperatures. But that may be the sugarcoated version. . . . The melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are a fairly recent development that has taken scientists by surprise. They don't know how to predict its effects in their computer models. But many fear it will mean the world's coastlines are swamped much