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OS People

Stephen Yeager

Research Interests

  • Decadal climate variability & prediction
  • Large-scale ocean dynamics
  • Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
  • Air-sea interaction
  • Global ocean modelling


  • Moffa-Sánchez, P., E. Moreno-Chamarro, D. J. Reynolds, P. Ortega, L. Cunningham, D. Swingedouw, D. E. Amrhein, J. Halfar, L. Jonkers, J. H. Jungclaus, K. Perner, A. Wanamaker, and S. Yeager, 2019: Variability in the northern North Atlantic and Arctic oceans across the last two millenia: a review, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, in press, doi:10.1029/2018PA003508.
  • Simpson, I. R., S. G. Yeager, K. A. McKinnon, and C. Deser, 2019: Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean-jet stream connection, Nat. Geosci., doi:10.1038/s41561-019-0391-x. [pdf]
  • Smith, D. M., R. Eade, A. A. Scaife, L.-P. Caron, T. M. DelSole, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Yeager, and X. Yang, 2019: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions, npj Clim. Atm. Sci., 2:13, doi:10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y. [pdf]
  • Li, F., S. Lozier, G. Danabasoglu, N. P. Holliday, Y.-O. Kwon, A. Romanou, S. G. Yeager, and R. Zhang, 2019: Local and downstream relationships between Labrador Sea Water volume and North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability, J. Clim., 32, 3883-3898, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0735.1. [pdf]
  • Zhang, R., R. Sutton, G. Danabasoglu, Y.-O. Kwon, R. Marsh, S. G. Yeager, D. E. Amrhein, and C. M. Little, 2019: A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts, Rev. Geophys., 57, doi:10.1029/2019RG000644. [pdf]
  • Fox-Kemper, B., A. Adcroft, C. W. Böning, E. P. Chassignet, E. Curchitser, G. Danabasoglu, C. Eden, M. H. England, R. Gerdes, R. J. Greatbatch, S. M. Griffies, R. W. Hallberg, E. Hanert, P. Heimbach, H. T. Hewitt, C. N. Hill, Y. Komuro, S. Legg, J. Le Sommer, S. Masina, S. J. Marsland, S. G. Penny, F. Qiao, T. D. Ringler, A. M. Treguier, H. Tsujino, P. Uotila, and S. G. Yeager, 2019: Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models, Front. Mar. Sci., 6:65, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00065. [pdf]
  • Lovenduski, N. S., S. G. Yeager, K. Lindsay, and M. C. Long, 2019: Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake, Earth Sys. Dyn., 10, 45-57, doi:10.5194/esd-10-45-2019. [pdf]
  • Castruccio, F. S., Y. Ruprich-Robert, S. G. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, R. Msadek, and T. L. Delworth, 2019: Modulation of Arctic sea ice loss by atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, J. Clim., 32, 1419-1441, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0307.1. [pdf]
  • Lee, S.-K., R. Lumpkin, M. O. Baringer, C. S. Meinen, M. Goes, S. Dong, H. Lopez, and S. G. Yeager, 2018: Global meridional overturning circulation inferred from a data-constrained ocean and sea-ice model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, doi:10.1029/2018GL080940. [pdf]
  • Kim, W. G., S. G. Yeager, and G. Danabasoglu, 2018: Key role of internal ocean dynamics in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability during the last half century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 13449-13457, doi:10.1029/2018GL080474. [pdf]
  • Smith, D. M., A. A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Doescher, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G. A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X. Yang, and S. G. Yeager, 2018: Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5°C, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, doi:10.1029/2018GL079362. [pdf]
  • Wang, H., J. L. McClean, L. D. Talley, and S. G. Yeager, 2018: Seasonal cycle and annual reversal of the Somali Current in an eddy-resolving global ocean model, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 123, doi:10.1029/2018JC013975. [pdf]
  • Tsujino, H., S. Urakawa, H. Nakano, R. J. Small, W. M. Kim, S. G. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, T. Suzuki, J. L. Bamber, M. Bentsen, C. Böning, A. Bozec, E. Chassignet, E. Curchitser, F. B. Dias, P. J. Durack, S. M. Griffies, Y. Harada, M. Ilicak, S. A. Josey, C. Kobayashi, S. Kobayashi, Y. Komuro, W. G. Large, J. Le Sommer, S. J. Marsland, S. Masina, M. Scheinert, H. Tomita, M. Valdivieso, and D. Yamazaki, 2018: JRA-55 based surface dataset for driving ocean--sea-ice models (JRA55-do), Ocean Modelling, 130, 79-139, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.07.002. [pdf]
  • Cheng, W., W. Weijer, W. M. Kim, G. Danabasoglu, S. G. Yeager, P. R. Gent, D. Zhang, J. C. H. Chiang, and J. Zhang, 2018: Can the salt-advection feedback be detected in internal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?, J. Climate, 31, 6649-6667, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0825.1. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S. G., G. Danabasoglu, N. A. Rosenbloom, W. G. Strand, S. C. Bates, G. Meehl, A. Karspeck, K. Lindsay, M. C. Long, H. Teng, and N. Lovenduski, 2018: Predicting near-term changes in the Earth System: A large ensemble of initialized decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 1867-1886, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0098.1. [pdf] [Supp]
  • Ruprich-Robert, Y., Delworth T., R. Msadek, F. Castruccio, S. Yeager, and G. Danabasoglu, 2018: Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on North American Summer Climate and Heat Waves, J. Climate, 31, 3679-3700, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0270.1. [pdf]
  • Kim, W. M., S. G. Yeager, P. Chang, and G. Danabasoglu, 2018: Low-frequency North Atlantic Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, J. Climate, 31, 787-813, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0193.1. [pdf]
  • DiNezio, P., C. Deser, A. Karspeck, S. Yeager, Y. Okumura, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, J. Caron, and G. Meehl, 2017: A two-year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Niña in 2017-18, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44,11624-11635, doi:10.1002/2017GL074904. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S. G., and J. I. Robson, 2017: Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 3, 112-127, doi:10.1007/s40641-017-0064-z. [pdf]
  • Ruprich-Robert, Y., R. Msadek, F. Castruccio, S. Yeager, T. Delworth, and G. Danabasoglu, 2017: Assessing the climate impacts of the observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using the GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR CESM1 global coupled models, J. Climate, 30, 2785-2810, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0127.1. [pdf]
  • Schoonover, J., W. Dewar, N. Wienders, J. Gula, J. C. McWilliams, M. J. Molemaker, S. C. Bates, G. Danabasoglu, and S. Yeager, 2016: North Atlantic barotropic vorticity balances in numerical models, J. Phys. Oceanogr. , 46, 289-303, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0133.1.
  • Zhang, R., R. Sutton, G. Danabasoglu, T. L. Delworth, W. M. Kim, J. Robson, and S. Yeager, 2016: Comment on "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation", Science, 352 (6293), 1527, doi:10.1126/science.aaf1660. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S., W. Kim, and J. Robson, 2016: What caused the Atlantic cold blob of 2015? US CLIVAR Variations, 14, No 2, 24-31. [pdf]
  • Kim, W., S. Yeager, P. Chang, and G. Danabasoglu, 2016: Atmospheric conditions associated with Labrador Sea deep convection: New insights from a case study of the 2006/07 and 2007/08 winters, J. Climate, 29, 5281-5297, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0527.1. [pdf]
  • Danabasoglu, G., S. Yeager, W. Kim, E. Behrens, M. Bentsen, D. Bi, A. Biastoch, R. Bleck, C. Böning, A. Bozec, V. Canuto, C. Cassou, E. Chassignet, A. Coward, S. Danilov, N. Diansky, H. Drange, R. Farneti, E. Fernandez, P. Fogli, G. Forget, Y. Fujii, S. Griffies, A. Gusev, P. Heimbach, A. Howard, M. Ilicak, T. Jung, A. Karspeck, and M. Kelley, 2016: North Atlantic simulations in coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability, Ocean Modelling, 97, 65-90, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.11.007. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S., A. Karspeck, and G. Danabasoglu, 2015: Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss, Geophys. Res. Lett. , 42, 10,704-10,713, doi:10.1002/2015GL065364. [pdf][Supp]
  • Downes, S., R. Farneti, P. Uotila, S. Griffies, S. Marsland, D. Bailey, E. Behrens, M. Bentsen, D. Bi, A. Biastoch, C. Böning, A. Bozec, V. Canuto, E. Chassignet, G. Danabasoglu, S. Danilov, N. Diansky, H. Drange, P. Fogli, A. Gusev, A. Howard, M. Ilicak, T. Jung, M. Kelley, W. Large, A. Leboissetier, M. Long, J. Lu, S. Masina, A. Mishra, A. Navarra, G. Nurser, L. Patara, B. Samuels, D. Sidorenko, P. Spence, H. Tsujino, Q. Wang, and S. Yeager, 2015: An assessment of Southern Ocean water masses and sea ice during 1988-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations, Ocean Modelling, 94, 67-94, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.022. [pdf]
  • Farneti, R., S. Downes, S. Griffies, S. Marsland, E. Behrens, M. Bentsen, D. Bi, A. Biastoch, C. Böning, A. Bozec, V. Canuto, E. Chassignet, G. Danabasoglu, S. Danilov, N. Diansky, H. Drange, P. Fogli, A. Gusev, R. Hallberg, A. Howard, M. Ilicak, T. Jung, M. Kelley, W. Large, A. Leboissetier, M. Long, J. Lu, S. Masina, A. Mishra, A. Navarra, G. Nurser, L. Patara, B. Samuels, D. Sidorenko, H. Tsujino, P. Uotila, Q. Wang, and S. Yeager, 2015: An assessment of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation during 1958-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations, Ocean Modelling, 93, 84-120, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.009. [pdf]
  • Kleppin, H., M. Jochum, B. Otto-Bliesner, C. Shields, and S. Yeager, 2015: Stochastic atmospheric forcing as a cause of Greenland climate transitions, J. Climate , 28, 7741-7763, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00728.1. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S., 2015: Topographic coupling of the Atlantic overturning and gyre circulations, J. Phys. Oceanogr. , 45, 1258-1284, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0100.1. [pdf]
  • Karspeck, A., S. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, and H. Teng, 2014: An evaluation of experimental decadal predictions using CCSM4, Clim. Dyn. , 44, 907-923, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2212-7. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S., and G. Danabasoglu, 2014: The origins of late 20th century variations in the large-scale North Atlantic circulation, J. Climate, 27, 3222-3247, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00125.1. [pdf]
  • Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, B. Kirtman, G. Branstator, G. Danabasoglu, E. Hawkins, A. Kumar, T. Rosati, D. Smith, R. Sutton, G. Boer, R. Burgman, C. Cassou, S. Corti, A. Karspeck, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, D. Matei, J. Mignot, R. Msadek, A. Navarra, H. Pohlmann, M. Rienecker, E. Schneider, C. Tebaldi, H. Teng, G. J. van Oldenborgh, G. Vecchi, and S. Yeager, 2014: Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 243-267, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1. [pdf]
  • Danabasoglu, G., S. Yeager, D. Bailey, et al., 2014: North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part I: Mean States. Ocean Modelling, 73, 76-107, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.10.005. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S, 2013: Understanding and predicting changes in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature, PhD thesis, University of Colorado, 176pp.. [pdf]
  • Karspeck, A., S. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, T. Hoar, N. Collins, K. Raeder, J. Anderson, and J. Tribbia, 2013: An Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter for the CCSM4 Ocean Component. J. Climate, 26, 7392-7413, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-0040.1. [pdf]
  • Msadek, R., W. E. Johns, S. G. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, T. L. Delworth, and A. Rosati, 2013: The Atlantic Meridional Heat transport at 26.5N and its relationship with the MOC in the RAPID array and the GFDL and NCAR coupled models. J. Climate, 26, 4335-4356, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00081.1. [pdf]
  • Bates, S. C., B. Fox-Kemper, S. R. Jayne, W. G. Large, S. Stevenson, and S. G. Yeager, 2012: Mean biases, variability, and trends in air-sea fluxes and sea surface temperature in the CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 7781-7801, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00442.1. [pdf]
  • Large, W. G., and S. G. Yeager, 2012: On the Observed Trends (1984-2006) and Changes in Global Sea Surface Temperature and Air-Sea Heat Fluxes. J. Climate, 25, 6123-6135, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00148.1. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S., A. Karspeck, G. Danabasoglu, J. Tribbia, and H. Teng, 2012: A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late 20th Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content. J. Climate, 25, 5173-5189, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00595.1. [pdf]
  • Danabasoglu, G., S. G. Yeager, Y.-O. Kwon, J. Tribbia, A. Phillips, and J. Hurrell, 2012: Variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 5153-5172, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00463.1. [pdf]
  • Danabasoglu, G., S. Bates, B. P. Briegleb, S. R. Jayne, M. Jochum, W. G. Large, S. Peacock, and S. G. Yeager, 2012: The CCSM4 Ocean Component. J. Climate, 25, 1361-1389, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00091.1. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S. G., and G. Danabasoglu, 2012: Sensitivity of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability to parameterized Nordic Sea overflows in CCSM4. J. Climate, 25, 2077-2103, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00149.1. [pdf]
  • Lee S.-K., W. Park, E. van Sebille, M. O. Baringer, C. Wang, D. B. Enfield, S. Yeager, and B. P. Kirtman, 2011: What Caused the Significant Increase in Atlantic Ocean Heat Content Since the mid-20th Century?. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L17607, doi:10.1029/2011GL048856. [pdf]
  • Stevenson, S., B. Fox-Kemper, M. Jochum, B. Rajagopalan, and S. G. Yeager, 2010: ENSO Model Validation Using Wavelet Probability Analysis. J. Climate, 22, 5540-5547, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3609.1. [pdf]
  • Han, W., G. Meehl, B. Rajagopalan, J. Fasullo, A. Hu, J. Lin, W. Large, J. Wang, X. Quan, L. Trenary, A. Wallcraft, T. Shinoda, and S. Yeager, 2010: Patterns of Indian Ocean sea-level change in a warming climate. Nat. Geo., 3, 546-550, doi:10.1038/ngeo901. [pdf]
  • Jochum, M., S. G. Yeager, K. Lindsay, K. Moore, and R. Murtugudde, 2010: Quantification of the feedback between phytoplankton and ENSO in the Community Climate System Model. J. Climate, 23, 2916-2925, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3254.1. [pdf]
  • Gent, P., S. Yeager, R. Neale, S. Levis, and D. Bailey, 2009: Improvements in a Half Degree Atmosphere/Land version of the CCSM. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0614-8. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S. G., and M. Jochum, 2009: The Connection between Labrador Sea Buoyancy Loss, Deep Western Boundary Current Strength, and Gulf Stream Path in an Ocean Circulation Model. Ocean Modelling, 30, 207-224, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.06.014. [pdf]
  • Griffies, S. M., A. Biastoch, C. Böning, F. Bryan, G. Danabasoglu, E. Chassignet, M. England, R. Gerdes, H. Haak, R. Hallberg, W. Hazeleger, J. Jungclaus, W. Large, G. Madec, A. Pirani, B. Samuels, M. Scheinert, A. Gupta, C. Severijns, H. Simmons, A. Treguier, M. Winton, S. Yeager, and J. Yin, 2009: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs). Ocean Modelling, 26, 1-46, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.08.007. [pdf]
  • Large, W. G., and S. G. Yeager, 2009: The Global Climatology of an Interannually Varying Air-Sea Flux Data Set. Clim. Dyn., 33, 341-364, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0441-3. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S. G., and W. G. Large, 2007: Observational evidence of winter spice injection. J. Phys. Oceanogr. , 37, 2895-2919, doi:10.1175/2007JPO3629.1. [pdf]
  • Doney, S. C., S. G. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, W. G. Large, and J. C. McWilliams, 2007: Mechanisms governing interannual variability of upper ocean temperature in a global ocean hindcast simulation. J. Phys. Oceanogr. , 37, 1918-1938, doi:10.1175/JPO3089.1. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S. G., C. A. Shields, W. G. Large, and J. J. Hack, 2006: The low-resolution CCSM3. J. Climate, 19, 2545-2566, doi:10.1175/JCLI3744.1. [pdf]
  • Hack, J. J., J. M. Caron, S. G. Yeager, K. W. Oleson, M. M. Holland, J. E. Truesdale, and P. J. Rasch , 2006: Simulation of the global hydrological cycle in the CCSM Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3): Mean features. J. Climate, 19, 2199-2221, doi:10.1175/JCLI3755.1. [pdf]
  • Yeager, S. G., and W. G. Large, 2004: Late-winter generation of spiciness on subducted isopycnals. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 1528-1547, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2004)034<1528:LGOSOS>2.0.CO;2. [pdf]
  • W. G. Large and S. G. Yeager, 2004: Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: The data sets and flux climatologies. Technical Report TN-460+STR, NCAR, 105pp. [pdf]
  • Doney, S. C., S. G. Yeager, G. Danabasoglu, W. G. Large, and J. C. McWilliams, 2003: Modeling global oceanic inter-annual variability (1958-1997): Simulation design and model-data evaluation. Technical Report TN-452+STR, NCAR, 48pp. [pdf]

CGD People

Stephen Yeager