BRACE | Data Output and Model Projections

Results from the project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) are currently being published as part of the BRACE special issue of Climatic Change. This page is updated with data output and model projections as they become available.


Post-processed data is available for both the 30-member RCP8.5 Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and the 15-member RCP4.5 Medium Ensemble (CESM-ME) used in the BRACE project. This data is available to all users with access to the Earth System Grid at the following links:


For Yellowstone users, a subset of the data is available on the glade directory at the following locations:

    • RCP8.5 Large Ensemble: /glade/p/cesm0005/CESM-CAM5-BGC-LE
    • RCP4.5 Medium Ensemble: /glade/p/ncgd0014/CESM-CAM5-BGC-ME.

Additional information about the large ensemble is available on the CESM1 (CAM5) Large Ensemble Community Project webpage.

Additional ENSEMBLE data

Fixed Aerosols Ensemble

This 15-member ensemble simulation uses the same forcing as the RCP8.5 Large Ensemble except that all aerosol emissions and tropospheric oxidants are fixed at 2005 levels. For more information about this ensemble, contact Yangyang Xu or see the paper on the importance of aerosol scenarios in projections of future heat extremes.

Bias-corrected output

In their paper on avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S., Oleson et al. applied a complete bias correction procedure to daily maximum and minimum 2-m height reference temperature (gridcell average, rural, and urban) using Kernel Density Distribution Mapping to all CESM-LE and CESM-ME members for 1980–2080. Additional details about this procedure can be found in supplementary material for the article in Climatic Change. For Yellowstone users, this data is available on the glade directory at the following locations:

    • 20th Century (1980-2005) Large Ensemble: /glade/p/cesm/lmwg_dev/oleson/LENS_BC/20TR
    • RCP8.5 (2006-2080) Large Ensemble: /glade/p/cesm/lmwg_dev/oleson/LENS_BC/RCP85
    • RCP4.5 (2006-2080) Medium Ensemble: /glade/p/cesm/lmwg_dev/oleson/LENS_BC/RCP45.

Further Work

Building on work from Done et al. (2016), the authors are applying their index of hurricane damage potential to real-time seasonal forecasting of hurricane damage. Published through NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE), the seasonal damage forecasts support a major part of the C3WE mission to create actionable tools for improved management of and planning for weather and climate extremes.