IAV quantitative elements and evaluation metrics working group

Co-chairs: Marc LevyBas van Ruijven

Identify and quantify indicators useful to IAV researchers and other users not produced by IAMs. Scope and incorporate information/data for near-term (pre 2050) decades. Develop ideas for incorporating adaptation policy into SPAs and coordinate with IAM quantification group; Explore methods for calibrating new and existing scenarios in the “challenge” matrix.

Background

This working group coordinated three tasks:

1.Identify and quantify indicators that are useful to IAV researchers and other users but are not produced by IAMs

Under this task we plan to focus on the following areas: income distribution, health (child mortality), urbanization and spatial population projections, qualitative indicators for governance, conflicts. With support from CIESIN, we plan to develop a catalog of available data on historic trends and future scenarios for these indicators. We’ll perform diagnostic statistical analyses, in order to identify the relevant ranges for future projections, and correlations between these indicators and the drivers that are already developed for the SSP’s (population, GDP, education, urbanization).

For income distribution and health projections, we also aim to organize a comparison process with the groups that are currently working on these issues. Ideally, multiple research groups would develop their projections for income distribution and health, based on the SSP storylines and the available scenario drivers.

2.Explore methods for calibrating new and existing scenarios in the “challenge” matrix

On this task, we mainly aim to coordinate the process, make sure that progress is made and brought to the literature. On the axis of challenges to mitigation, work has been done and presented in the SSP meetings by PNNL and IIASA. Analysis to challenges to adaptation have been presented in SSP meetings by NCAR/CIRED.

3.Explore the need for short-term (pre-2050) elaboration of the SSP’s

The narratives of the SSP’s are currently mainly defined by the end-point, rather than the development pathway during the 21th century. However, many IAV analyses focus on the next few decades, rather than the second half of the century. Therefore, it might be useful to elaborate the SSP’s with special emphasis on the next few decades, with respect to storylines and more detailed quantification. At this moment, it is not clear whether such elaboration would be used and whether the existing set of drivers already provides enough information on the short term. Some people have volunteered at the meeting in The Hague to work on this, and this working group aims to coordinate the work.