TSS - IAM People

Brian O'Neill, Scientist III


Brian O'Neill leads the Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) group within the Terrestrial Sciences section at NCAR. The IAM group is also part of NCAR's Integrated Science Program (ISP). Brian holds a Ph.D. in Earth Systems Science and an M.S. in Applied Science, both from New York University, and has worked previously on the science staff of the Environmental Defense Fund in New York, and as an Assistant and Associate Professor (Research) at Brown University's Watson Institute for International Studies. During the period 2005-2009, he founded and led the Population and Climate Change Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria.

His research interests are in the field of integrated assessment modeling of climate change, which links socio-economic and natural science elements of the climate change issue in order to address applied, policy-relevant questions. Current areas of focus include the relationship between socio-economic development pathways, emissions, and climate change impacts, and scenario analyses linking long-term climate change goals to shorter-term actions.

Brian is the lead author (along with Landis MacKellar and Wolfgang Lutz) of Population and Climate Change, published by Cambridge University Press. He has also served as a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report in a volume on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (Working Group II), and for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) in a volume on Scenarios. He is currently serving as lead author in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, in Working Group II.


O'Neill, B.C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T.R., Mathur, R., van Vuuren, D., in press. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: The concept of Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Climatic Change, Special Issue on "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions."

Schweizer, V.J., O'Neill, B.C., in press. Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations. Climatic Change, Special Issue on "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions."

Rogelj, J., McCollum, D.L., O'Neill, B.C., Riahi, K., 2012. 2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 C. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1758. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]

O'Neill, B.C., Ren, X., Jiang, L., Dalton, M.G., 2012. The effect of urbanization on energy use in India and China in the iPETS model. Energy Economics 34, S339-S345. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]

Krey, V., O'Neill, B.C., van Ruijven, B., Chaturvedi, V., Daioglou, V., Eom, J., Jiang, L., Nagai, Y., Pachauri, S., Ren, X., 2012. Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia. Energy Economics 34, S272-S283. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]

Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B.C., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Lempert, R., Moss, R., Wilbanks, T. The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change, in press. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]

Melnikov, N., O'Neill, B.C., Dalton, M.G. (2012) Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models. Energy Economics 34(5), 1475-1483. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ] [ Model Code (ZIP) ]

O'Neill, B.C., Liddle, B., Jiang, L., Smith, K.R., Fuchs, R., Dalton, M., Pachauri, S. (2012) Demographic change and emissions of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. The Lancet 380, 157-164. [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]

van Vuuren, D.P., Batlle Bayer, L., Chuwah, C., Ganzeveld, L., Hazeleger, W., van den Hurk, B., van Noije, T., O'Neill, B.C., Strengers, B.J. (2012) A comprehensive view on climate change: Coupling of Earth System and Integrated Assessment Models. Environmental Research Letters 7, 024012 (10pp). [ Abstract ] [ Full Text (PDF) ]

CGD People

Brian O'Neill, Scientist III