Clara Deser
Senior Scientist


Clara Deser studies global climate variability and climate change in observations and models, with an emphasis on interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. Recent projects include the role of internal variability in regional climate change, the effects of projected Arctic sea ice loss on global climate, asymmetries between El Nino and La Nina, and Pacific decadal variability.

In addition to serving as head of the Climate Analysis Section, she co-chairs the CESM Climate Variability and Change Working Group, and co-leads a number of NCAR community projects including the CESM1 Large Ensemble Project, the Climate Data Guide, and the Climate Variability Diagnostics Package. She is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society. Clara received her Ph.D in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington in 1989, and her B.S. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1982.

Selected Presentations


All Years | By Year:


Merrifield, A. L., I. R. Simpson, K. A. McKinnon, S. Sippel, S. -P. Xie and C. Deser, 2019: Local and non-local land surface influence in European heatwave initial condition ensembles. Geophys. Res. Lett., submitted.
[Article] [Supporting Information]

Simpson, I. R., S. G. Yeager, K. A. McKinnon, and C. Deser 2019: Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean-jet stream connection. Nat. Geosci., in press.

Kang, S. M., M. Hawcroft, B. Xiang, Y. -T. Hwang, H. Kim, G. Cazes, F. Codror, T. Crueger, C. Deser, Ø. Hodrebrog, J. Kim, Y. Kosaka, T. Losada, C. R. Mechoso, G. Myhre, Ø. Seland, B. Stevens, M. Watanabe and S. Yu, 2019: ETIN-MIP Extratropical-Tropical Interaction Model Intercomparison Project – Protocol and Initial Results. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., submitted.

Chemke, R., L. M. Polvani and C. Deser, 2019: The effect of Arctic sea-ice loss on the Hadley circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 963-972, doi: 10.1029/2018GL081110.

Guo, R., C. Deser, L. Terray and F. Lehner, 2019: Human influence on winter precipitation trends (1921-2015) over North America and Eurasia revealed by dynamical adjustment. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, doi: 10.1029/2018GL081316.
[Article] [Supplemental Information]

Screen, J.A. and C. Deser, 2019: Pacific Ocean Variability Influences the Time of Emergence of a Seasonally Ice-Free Arctic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 2222–2231, doi: 10.1029/2018GL081393. [Article]

Fedorov, A., S. Hu, A. Wittenberg, A. Levine and C. Deser, 2019: ENSO low-frequency modulations and mean state interactions. ENSO in a Changing Climate, M. McPhaden. A. Santoso and W. Cai, Eds., AGU Books, submitted.

Hurrell, J. W., C. Deser and A. S. Phillips, 2018: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences (3rd edition), doi: 10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.11621-5. [Article]

McKinnon, K. A and C. Deser, 2018: Internal variability and regional climate trends in an Observational Large Ensemble. J. Climate, 31, 6783–6802, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Lehner, F., C. Deser, I. R. Simpson and L Terray, 2018: Attributing the US Southwest’s recent shift into drier conditions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 6251-6261, doi: 10.1029/2018GL078312.
[Article] [Supporting Information]

Simpson, I. R., C. Deser, K. A. McKinnon, and E. A. Barnes, 2018: Modelled and observed multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic jet stream and its connection to Sea Surface Temperatures. J. Climate, 8313-8338, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0168.1.

Sun, L., M. A. Alexander and C. Deser, 2018: Evolution of the global coupled climate response to Arctic sea ice loss during 1990-2090 and its contribution to climate change. J. Climate, 31, 7823-7843, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0134.1.
[Article] [Supporting Information]

Smith, D., J. Screen, C. Deser, et al., 2018: "The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification", Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss.,

Deser, C., I. R. Simpson, A. S. Phillips and K. A. McKinnon, 2018: How well do we know ENSO's climate impacts over North America, and how do we evaluate models accordingly? J. Climate, 30, 4991-5014, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0783.1.
[Article] [Supplemental Material]

Wang K., C. Deser, L. Sun and R. A. Tomas, 2018: Fast Response of the Tropics to an Abrupt Loss of Arctic Sea Ice via Ocean Dynamics. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2018GL077325.
[Article] [Supporting Information]

Screen, J. A., C. Deser, D. M. Smith, X. Zhang, R. Blackport, P. J. Kushner, T. Oudar, K. E. McCusker and L. Sun, 2018: Consistency and causes of discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss across climate models. Nat. Geosci., doi:10.1038/s41561-018-0059-y. [Article] [Weather Underground Article]


Deser, C., I. R. Simpson, K. A. McKinnon and A. S. Phillips, 2017: The Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical atmospheric circulation response to ENSO: How well do we know it and how do we evaluate models accordingly? J. Climate, 30, 5059-5082, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0844.1. [Article] [Corrigendum]

Pendergrass, A. G., R. Knutti, F. Lehner, C. Deser and B. M. Sanderson, 2017: Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. Sci. Rep., 7, 17966 (2017), doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y. [Article] [Supplementary Information]

Okumura, Y. M., P. DiNezio and C. Deser, 2017: Evolving impacts of multi-year La Niña events on atmospheric circulation and US drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11,614–11,623, doi: 10.1002/2017GL075034. [Article] [Supporting Information]

DiNezio, P., C. Deser, A. Karspeck, S. Yeager, Y. Okumura, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, J. Caron and G. A. Meehl, 2017: A two-year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Nina in 2017-18. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 11624–11635, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074904. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Schneider, D. P and C. Deser, 2017: Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: Reconciling observed and modeled trends. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3893-5. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

McKinnon, K. A., A. Poppick, Dunn-Sigouin, E. and C. Deser, 2017: An ‘Observational Large Ensemble’ to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability. J. Climate, 90, 7585-7598, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0905.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Pendergrass, A. G. and C. Deser, 2017: Climatological Characteristics of Typical Daily Precipitation. J. Climate, 30, 5985–6003, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0684.1. [Article]

Merrifield, A., F. Lehner, S. -P. Xie and C. Deser, 2017: Removing Circulation Effects to Assess Central US Land-Atmosphere Interactions in the CESM Large Ensemble. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 9938-9946, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074831. [Article] [Supporting Information]

He, J., C. Deser, and B. J. Soden, 2017: Atmospheric and Oceanic Origins of Tropical Precipitation Variability. J. Climate, 30, 3197-3217, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0714.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C., J. W. Hurrell and A. S. Phillips, 2017: The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European Climate Projections. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Hwang, Y. -T., S. -P. Xie, C. Deser and S. M. Kang, 2017: Connecting Tropical Climate Change with Southern Ocean Heat Uptake. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL074972. [Article] [Supporting Information]

Lehner, F., C. Deser and L. Terray, 2017: Towards a new estimate of “time of emergence” of anthropogenic warming: insights from dynamical adjustment and a large initial-condition model ensemble. J. Climate, 30, 7739-7756, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0792.1
[Article] [Supplemental Material]

Deser, C., R. Guo and F. Lehner, 2017: The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1002/2017GL074273. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C. and A. Phillips, 2017: An overview of decadal-scale sea surface temperature variability in the observational record. Joint Issue of CLIVAR Exchanges and PAGES Magazine, doi: 10.22498/pages.25.1.2. [Article]

Thirumalai K., P. N. DiNezio, Y. Okumura and C. Deser, 2017: Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Niño and worsened by global warming. Nat. Comm., doi: 10.1038/ncomms15531. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

DiNezio, P. N., C. Deser, Y. Okumura and A. Karspeck, 2017: Predictability of 2-year La Ni ̃na events in a coupled general circulation model. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3575-3. [Article]

Polvani, L. M., L. Sun, A. H. Butler, J. H. Richter and C. Deser, 2017: Distinguishing stratospheric sudden warmings from ENSO as key drivers of wintertime climate variability over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. J. Climate, 30, 1959-1969, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0277.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Newman, M., M. A. Alexander, T. R. Ault, K. M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, N. J. Mantua, A. J. Miller, S. Minobe, H. Nakamura, N. Schneider, D. J. Vimont, A. S. Phillips, J. D. Scott, and C. A. Smith, 2016: The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisted. J. Climate, 29, 4399-4427, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0508.1. [Article]

McGraw, M. C., E. A. Barnes and C. Deser, 2016: Reconciling the Observed and Modeled Southern Hemisphere Circulation Response to Volcanic Eruptions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7259–7266, doi: 10.1002/2016GL069835.
[Article] [Supplementary Material]

Tomas, R. A, C. Deser and L. Sun, 2016: The role of ocean heat transport in the global climate response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 29, 6841-6859, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0651.1. [Article]

Eyring, V., M. Righi, A. Lauer, M. Evaldsson, S. Wenzel, C. Jones, A. Anav, O. Andrews, I. Cionni, E. L. Davin, C. Deser, C. Ehbrecht, P. Friedlingstein, P. Gleckler, K.-D. Gottschaldt, S. Hagemann, M. Juckes, S. Kindermann, J. Krasting, D. Kunert, R. Levine, A. Loew, J. Mäkelä, G. Martin, E. Mason, A. S. Phillips, S. Read, C. Rio, R. Roehrig, D. Senftleben, A. Sterl, L. H. van Ulft, J. Walton, S. Wang and K. D. Williams, 2016: ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP, Geosci. Model Dev.,9, 1747-1802, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016. [Article] [Discussion]

Lehner, F., A. P. Schurer, G. C. Hegerl, C. Deser and T. L. Frölicher, 2016: The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi: 10.1002/2016GL067935. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C., L. Terray and A. S. Phillips, 2016: Forced and internal components of winter air temperature trends over North America during the past 50 years: Mechanisms and implications. J. Climate, 29, 2237-2258, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0304.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C., L. Sun, R. A. Tomas and J. Screen, 2016: Does ocean-coupling matter for the northern extra-tropical response to projected Arctic sea ice loss?Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1002/2016GL067792.
[Article] [Supporting Information]

Lehner, F., C. Deser and B. M. Sanderson, 2016: Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation. Clim. Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Wang, C., C. Deser, J. -Y. Yu, P. DiNezio, and A. Clement, 2016: El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO): A Review. Coral Reefs of the Eastern Pacific, P. Glymn, D. Manzello and I. Enochs, Eds., Springer Science Publisher, 4, 85-106, doi:10.1007/978-94-017-7499-4_4. [Chapter]

Vihma, T., J. Screen, M. Tjernström, B. Newton, X. Zhang, V. Popova, C. Deser, M. Holland, and T. Prowse, 2016: The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: processes, past and future changes, and their impacts. J. Geophys. Res. -Biogeo., 121, 586-620, doi: 10.1002/2015JG003132. [Article]


Schneider, D. P., C. Deser and T. Fan, 2015: Comparing the impacts of tropical SST variability and polar stratospheric ozone loss on the Southern Ocean westerly winds. J. Climate, 28, 9350-9372, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0090.1. [Article] [Supplemental Material]

Thompson, D. W. J., E. A. Barnes, C. Deser, W. E. Foust, and A. S. Phillips, 2015: Quantifying the role of internal climate variability in future climate trends. J. Climate, 28, 6443-6456, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00830.1. [Article]

Richter, J. H., C. Deser and L. Sun, 2015: Effects of stratospheric variability on El Nino Teleconnections. Environ. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124021.
[Article] [Supplementary Material]

Screen, J. A., C. Deser and L. Sun, 2015: Reduced risk of North American cold extremes due to continued sea ice loss. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 96, 1489–1503, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00185.1 [Article]

Sun, L., C. Deser and R. A. Tomas, 2015: Mechanisms of stratospheric and tropospheric circulation response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 28, 7824-7845, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0169.1. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Xie, S -P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, M. Collins, T. L. Delworth, A. Hall, E. Hawkins, N. C. Johnson, C. Cassou, A. Giannini and M. Watanabe, 2015: Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change. Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 921–930, doi:10.1038/nclimate2689. [Article]

Kay, J. E., C. Deser, A. Phillips, A. Mai, C. Hannay, G. Strand, J. Arblaster, S. Bates, G. Danabasoglu, J. Edwards, M. Holland, P. Kushner, J. -F. Lamarque, D. Lawrence, K. Lindsay, A. Middleton, E. Munoz, R. Neale, K. Oleson, L. Polvani, and M. Vertenstein, 2015: The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 96, 1333–1349, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1. [Article]

Screen, J. A., C. Deser and L. Sun, 2015: Projected changes in regional climate extremes arising from Arctic sea ice loss. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 084006, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084006. [Article]

Deser, C., R. A. Tomas, and L. Sun, 2015: The role of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the zonal-mean atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, 28, 2168-2186, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00325.1. [Article]

Hurrell, J. W. and C. Deser, 2015: Northern hemisphere climate variability during winter: Looking back on the work of Felix Exner. Meteorol. Z., 24, 113-118, 10.1127/metz/2015/0578. [Article]

Sun, L., C. Deser, L. Polvani, and R. Tomas, 2014: Influence of projected Arctic sea ice loss on polar stratospheric ozone and circulation in spring. Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 084016, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084016. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

DiNezio, P. N. and C. Deser, 2014: Nonlinear controls on the persistence of La Nina. J. Climate, 27, 7335-7355, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00033.1. [Article]

Phillips, A. S., C. Deser, and J. Fasullo, 2014: A new tool for evaluating modes of variability in climate models. EOS, 95, 453-455, doi: 10.1002/2014EO490002. [Article]

D'Arrigo, R., R. Wilson, G. Wiles, K. Anchukaitis, O. Solomina, N. Davi, C. Deser and E. Dolgova, 2014: Tree-ring reconstructed temperature index for coastal northern Japan: Implications for western North Pacific variability. Int. J. Climatol., doi: 10.1002/joc.4230. [Article]

Screen, J. A., C. Deser, I. Simmonds, and R. Tomas, 2014: Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979-2009: Separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability. Clim. Dyn., 43, 333-344., doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1830-9. [Article]

Zhang, H., C. Deser, A. Clement, and R. Tomas, 2014: Equatorial signatures of the Pacific Meridional Modes: Dependence on mean climate state. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 568-574, doi:10.1002/2013GL058842. [Article]

Fan, T., C. Deser, and D. P. Schneider, 2014: Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2419-2426, doi:10.1002/2014GL059239. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, M. A. Alexander, and B. V. Smoliak, 2014: Projecting North American Climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability. J. Climate, 27, 2271-2296, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00451.1.
[Article] [Supplementary Material]

Butler, A. H., L. M. Polvani, and C. Deser, 2014: Separating the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways of El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections. Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 024014 (9pp), doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/2/024014. [Article]

Wettstein, J. J. and C. Deser, 2014: Internal variability in projections of twenty-first century Arctic sea ice loss: Role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation. J. Climate, 27, 527-550, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00839.1. [Article]


Kang, S. M., C. Deser and L. M. Polvani, 2013: Uncertainty in climate change projections of the Hadley circulation: the role of internal variability. J. Climate, 26, 7541-7554, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00788.1. [Article]

Ault, T. R., J. E. Cole, J. T. Overpeck, G. T. Pederson, S. St. George, B. Otto-Bliesner, C. A. Woodhouse, and C. Deser, 2013: The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium. J. Climate, 26, 5863-5878, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00732.1. [Article]

Ault, T. R., C. Deser, M. Newman, and J. Emile-Geay, 2013: Characterizing decadal to centennial variability in the equatorial Pacific during the last millennium. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3450-3456, doi: 10.1002/grl.50647. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Wallace, J.M., C.Deser, B.V. Smoliak, and A.S. Phillips, 2013: Attribution of climate change in the presence of internal variability, In Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond (Eds: C.P. Chang, M. Ghil, M. Latif, and J. M. Wallace). World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, Vol. 6. in press. [Chapter]

Hu, A. and C. Deser, 2013: Uncertainty in future regional sea level rise due to internal climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2768-2772, doi:10.1002/grl.50531. [Article]

Screen, J. A., I. Simmonds, C. Deser, and R. Tomas, 2013: The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss. J. Climate, J. Climate, 26, 1230-1248, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00063.1. [Article]

Goddard, L., A. Kumar, A. Solomon, D. Smith, G. Boer, P. Gonzalez, V. Kharin, W. Merryfield, C. Deser, S. Mason, B. Kirtman, R. Msadek, R. Sutton, E. Hawkins, T. Fricker, G. Hegerl, C. Ferro, D. Stephenson, G. Meehl, T. Stockdale, R. Burgman, A. Greene, Y. Kushnir, M. Newman, J. Carton, I. Fukumori, and T. Delworth, 2013: A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Clim. Dyn., 40, 245-272, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2. [Article]

Schneider, D. P, C. Deser, J. Fasullo, and K. E. Trenberth, 2013: Climate Data Guide spurs discovery and understanding. EOS, 94, 13, 121-122, doi: 10.1002/2013EO130001. [Article]

Stevenson, S., B. Fox-Kemper, M. Jochum, R. Neale, C. Deser, and G. Meehl, 2012: Will there be a significant change to El Nino in the 21st Century? J. Climate, 25, 2129-2145, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00252.1. [Article]

Schneider, D. P., Y. Okumura, and C. Deser, 2012: Observed Antarctic interannual climate variability and tropical linkages. J. Climate, 25, 4048-4066, 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00273.1. [Article]

Deser, C., R. Knutti, S. Solomon, and A. S. Phillips, 2012: Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 775-779, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1562. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Tokinaga, H., S -P. Xie, C. Deser, Y. Kosaka, and Y. M. Okumura, 2012: Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming. Nature, 491, 439-443, doi: 10.1038/nature11576. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Scherllin-Pirscher, B., C. Deser, S. -P. Ho, C. Chou, W. Randel, and Y. -W. Kuo, 2012: The vertical and spatial structure of ENSO in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from GPS radio occultation measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20801, doi:10.1029/2012GL053071. [Article]

Ghatak, D., C. Deser, A. Frei, G. Gong, A. Phillips, D. Robinson, and J. Stroeve, 2012: Simulated Eurasian Snow Cover Response to Observed Arctic Sea Ice Loss, 1979-2009. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D23108, doi:10.1029/2012JD018047. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, R. A. Tomas, Y. Okumura, M. A. Alexander, A. Capotondi, J. D. Scott, Y. -O. Kwon, and M. Ohba, 2012: ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in Community Climate System Model Version 4. J. Climate, 25, 2622-2651, 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00301.1 [Article]

Screen, J. A., C. Deser, and I. Simmonds, 2012: Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10709, doi:10.1029/2012GL051598. [Article]

Okumura, Y. M., D. Schneider, C. Deser, and R. Wilson, 2012: Decadal-interdecadal climate variability over Antarctica and linkages to the tropics: Analysis of ice core, instrumental, and tropical proxy data. J. Climate, 25, 7421-7441. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and H. Teng, 2012: Uncertainty in climate change projections: The role of internal variability. Climate Dyn., 38, 527-546, DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x. (Published online Dec. 2010) [Article]


Okumura, Y. M., M. Ohba, and C. Deser, 2011: A proposed mechanism for the asymmetric duration of El Niño and La Niña. J. Climate, 24, 3822-3829, 10.1175/2011JCLI3999.1. [Article}

Polvani, L. M., M. Previdi, and C. Deser, 2011: Large cancellation, due to ozone recovery, of future Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04707, doi: 10.1029/2011GL046712. [Article]

Schneider, D. P., C. Deser, and Y. Okumura, 2011: An assessment and interpretation of the observed warming of West Antarctica in the austral spring. Climate Dyn.,DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0985-x. [Article]

Clement, A., P. DiNezio, and C. Deser, 2011: Rethinking the Ocean's Role in the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 24, 4056-4072, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3973.1. [Article]

Zhang, Y., D. J. Seidel, J. -C. Golaz, C. Deser, and R. A. Tomas, 2011: Climatological Characteristics of Arctic and Antarctic Surface-Based Inversions. J. Climate, 24, 5167-5186, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4004.1. [Article and Supplementary Material]

Medeiros, B., C. Deser, R. A. Tomas, and J. E. Kay, 2011: Arctic inversion strength in climate models. J. Climate, 24, 4733-4740, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI3968.1. [Article]

Solomon, A., L. Goddard, A. Kumar, J. Carton, C. Deser, I. Fukumori, A. Greene, G. Hegerl, B. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, M. Newman, D. Smith, D. Vimont, T. Delworth, J. Meehl, and T. Stockdale, 2011: Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal climate variability: Implications for prediction. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 92, 141-156, 10.1175/2010BAMS2962.1. [Article]

Ciasto, L. M., M. A. Alexander, C. Deser, and M. H. England, 2011: On the persistence of cold season SST anomalies associated with the Annular Modes. J. Climate, 24, 2500-2515, 10.1175/2010JCLI3535.1. [Article]

Alexander, M. A., R. Tomas, C. Deser, and D. L. Lawrence, 2010: The Atmospheric Response to Projected Terrestrial Snow Changes in the Late 21st Century. J. Climate, 23, 6430-6437, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3899.1. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and M. A. Alexander, 2010: Twentieth Century Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Trends Revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10701, doi:10.1029/2010GL043321.
[Article] [Supplemental Material]

Okumura, Y. M., C. Deser, 2010: Asymmetry in the Duration of El Nino and La Nina. J. Climate, 23, 5826-5843, 10.1175/2010JCLI3592.1. [Article]

Anderson, B. T., J. R. Knight, M. A. Ringer, C. Deser, A. S. Phillips, J. -H. Yoon, and A. Cherchi, 2010: Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models. Climate Dyn., 35, 1461-1475, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0798-y. [Article]

Kwon, Y.-O., C. Deser and C. Cassou, 2010: Coupled atmosphere-mixed layer ocean response to ocean heat flux convergence along the Kuroshio Current Extension. Climate Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0764-8. [Article] [Supplementary Figures]

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, S. -P. Xie, and A. S. Phillips, 2010: Sea surface temperature variability: patterns and mechanisms. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci., 2010.2, 115-143, doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453. [Article]

Deser, C., R. Tomas, M. Alexander, and D. Lawrence, 2010: The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late 21st century. J. Climate, 23, 333-351, 10.1175/2009JCLI3053.1. [Article]

Xie, S. -P., C. Deser, G. A. Vecchi, J. Ma, H. Teng, A. T. Wittenberg, 2010: Global warming pattern formation: sea surface temperature and rainfall. J. Climate, 23, 966-986, doi:101175/2009JCLI3329.1. [Article]


Schubert, S., D. Gutzler, H. Wang, A. Dai, T. Delworth, C. Deser, K. Findell, R. Fu, W. Higgins, M. Hoerling, B. Kirtman, R. Koster, A. Kumar, D. Legler, D. Lettenmaier, B. Lyon, V. Magana, K. Mo, S. Nigam, P. Pegion, A. Phillips, R. Pulwarty, D. Rind, A. Ruiz-Barradas, J. Schemm, R. Seager, R. Stewart, M. Suarez, J. Syktus, M. Ting, C. Wang, S. Weaver, N. Zeng, 2009: A USCLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: Overview and results.J. Climate, 22, 5251-5272, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3060.1 [Article]

Okumura, Y. M., C. Deser, A. Hu, A. Timmermann, and S. -P. Xie, 2009: North Pacific climate response to freshwater forcing in the subarctic North Atlantic: Oceanic and atmospheric pathways. J. Climate, 22, 1424-1445. [Article]

Hurrell, J. W., and C. Deser, 2009: North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Mar. Syst., 78, No. 1, 28-41, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.11.026.
[Article (.html)]

Tsukernik, M., C. Deser, M. Alexander, and R. Tomas, 2009: Atmospheric forcing of Fram Strait sea ice export: A closer look. Climate Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0647-z. [Article]

Lu, J., C. Deser, and T. Reichler, 2009: Cause of the widening of the tropical belt since 1958. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03803, doi:10.1029/2008GL036076. [Article]

Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., J. Calbó, M. Brunetti, and C. Deser, 2009: Dimming/brightening over the Iberian Peninsula: Trends in sunshine duration and cloud cover and their relations with atmospheric circulation. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00D09, doi:10.1029/2008JD011394. [Article]

Zhou, T., R. Yu, J. Zhang, J. Li, X. Xin, H. Drange, C. Cassou, E. Sanchez-Gomez, C. Deser, Y. M. Okumura, D. L. Hodson, N. Keenlyside, 2009: Why the western Pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s. J. Climate, 22, 2199-2215, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2527.1. [Article]

Deser, C., and A.S. Phillips, 2009: Atmospheric Circulation Trends, 1950-2000: The Relative Roles of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing and Direct Atmospheric Radiative Forcing. J. Climate, 22, 396-413, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2453.1. [Article]

Bhatt, U. S., M. A. Alexander, C. Deser, J. E. Walsh, J. S. Miller, M. Timlin, J. D. Scott, and R. Tomas, 2008: The atmospheric response to realistic reduced summer Arctic sea ice anomalies. Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., 180, E. T. DeWeaver, C. M. Bitz, and L. -B. Tremblay, Eds., AGU, 91-110. [Article]

Lawrence, D. M., A. G. Slater, R. A. Tomas, M. M. Holland, and C. Deser, 2008: Accelerated Arctic land warming and permafrost degradation during rapid sea ice loss. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L11506, doi:10.1029/2008GL033985. [Article]

Deser, C., and H. Teng, 2008: Recent trends in Arctic sea ice and the evolving role of atmospheric circulation forcing, 1979-2007. Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Observations, Projections, Mechanisms, and Implications, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., 180, E. T. DeWeaver, C. M. Bitz, and L. -B. Tremblay, Eds., AGU, 7-26. [Article]

Ueyama, R., and C. Deser, 2008: A climatology of diurnal and semidiurnal surface wind variations over the Tropical Pacific Ocean based on the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean moored buoy array. J. Climate, 21, 593-607, doi:10.1175/JCLI1666.1. [Article]

Alexander, M., A. Capotondi, A. Miller, F. Chai, R. Brodeur, and C. Deser, 2008: Decadal variability in the Northeast Pacific in a physical-ecosystem model: Role of mixed layer depth and trophic interactions. J. Geophys. Res., 113, C02017, doi:10.1029/2007JC004359. [Article]

Zeng, Z, W. Randel, S. Sokolovskiy, C. Deser, Y. -H. Kuo, M. Hagan, J. Du, and W. Ward, 2008: Detection of migrating diurnal tide in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using the Challenging Minisatellite Payload radio occultation data. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D03102, doi:10.1029/2007JD008725. [Article]

Deser, C., and H. Teng, 2008: Evolution of Arctic sea ice concentration trends and the role of atmospheric circulation forcing, 1979-2007. Geophys. Res. Lett, 35, L02504, doi:10.1029/2007GL032023. [Article] [Supplemetary Material]


Deser, C., R. A. Tomas, and S. Peng, 2007: The transient atmospheric circulation response to North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies. J. Climate, 20, 4751-4767. [Article]

Cassou, C., C. Deser, and M. A. Alexander, 2007: Investigating the impact of reemerging sea surface temperature anomalies on the winter atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. J. Climate, 20, 3510-3526. [Article] [Supplementary Material]

Kwon, Y. -O., and C. Deser, 2007: North Pacific decadal variability in the Community Climate System Model Version 2. J. Climate, 20, 2416-2433. [Article]

Jochum, M., C. Deser, and A. Phillips, 2007: Tropical atmospheric variability forced by oceanic internal variability.J. Climate, 20, 765-771. [Article]

Park, S., M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser, 2006: The impact of cloud radiative feedback, remote ENSO forcing, and entrainment on the persistence of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 19, 6243-6261. [Article]

Deser, C., and A. S. Phillips, 2006: Simulation of the 1976/1977 climate transition over the North Pacific: Sensitivity to tropical forcing. J. Climate, 19, 6170-6180. [Article]

Deser, C., A. Capotondi, R. Saravanan, and A. S. Phillips, 2006: Tropical Pacific and Atlantic climate variability in CCSM3. J. Climate, 19, 2451-2481. [Article] [Supplementary Figures]

D'Arrigo, R., R. Wilson, C. Deser, G. Wiles, E. Cook, R. Villalba, A. Tudhope, J. Cole, and B. Linsley, 2005: Tropical-North Pacific climate linkages over the past four centuries. J. Climate, 18, 5253-5265. [Article]

Park, S., C. Deser, and M. A. Alexander, 2005: Estimation of the surface heat flux response to sea surface temperature anomalies over the global oceans. J. Climate, 18, 4582-4599. [Article]

Capotondi, A., M. A. Alexander, C. Deser, and M. J. McPhaden, 2005: Anatomy and decadal evolution of the Pacific Subtropical-Tropical Cells (STCs). J. Climate, 18, 3739-3758. [Article]

Capotondi, A., M. A. Alexander, C. Deser, and A. J. Miller, 2005: Low-frequency pycnocline variability in the Northeast Pacific. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 35, 1403-1420. [Article]


Cassou, C., C. Deser, L. Terray, J. W. Hurrell, and M. Dr�villon, 2004: Summer sea surface temperature conditions in the North Atlantic and their impact upon the atmospheric circulation in early winter. J. Climate, 17, 3349-3363. [Article]

Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, and J. W. Hurrell, 2004: Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the tropics and North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J. Climate, 17, 3109-3124. [Article] [Supplementary Figures] [Tropical Index ascii file]

Magnusdottir, G., C. Deser, and R. Saravanan, 2004: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea-ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3, Part I: Main features and storm-track characteristics of the response. J. Climate, 17, 857-876. [Article]

Deser, C., G. Magnusdottir, R. Saravanan, and A. Phillips, 2004: The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea-ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3, Part II: Direct and indirect components of the response. J. Climate, 17, 877-889. [Article]

Cassou, C., L. Terray, J. W. Hurrell, and C. Deser, 2004: North Atlantic winter climate regimes: Spatial asymmetry, stationarity with time, and oceanic forcing. J. Climate, 17, 1055-1068. [Article]

Capotondi, A., M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser, 2003: Why are there Rossby Wave maxima in the Pacific at 10�S and 13�N? J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 1549-1563. [Article]

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, 2003: Understanding the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies in midlatitudes. J. Climate, 16, 57-72. [Article]

Hu, A., C. Rooth, R. Bleck, and C. Deser, 2002: NAO influence on sea ice extent in the Eurasian coastal region. Geophys. Res. Lett.: 29, No. 2053-2056. [Article]

Timlin, M. S., M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser, 2002: On the reemergence of North Atlantic SST anomalies. J. Climate, 15, 2707-2712. [Article]

Lysne, J., and C. Deser, 2002: Wind-driven thermocline variability in the Pacific: A model/data comparison. J. Climate, 15, 829-845. [Article]

Deser, C., M. Holand, G. Reverdin, and M. S. Timlin, 2002: Decadal variations in Labrador sea ice cover and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. J. of Geophys. Res., 107, C5, doi:10.1029/2000JC000683. [Article (.4MB)]

Lietzke, C. E., C. Deser, and T. H. Vonder Haar, 2001: Evolutionary structure of the Eastern Pacific double ITCZ based on satellite moisture profile retrievals.J. Climate, 14, 743-751. [Article]

Joyce, T. M., C. Deser, and M. A. Spall, 2000: The relation between decadal variability of subtropical mode water in the North Atlantic and large-scale patterns of air-sea forcing. J. Climate, 13, 2550-2569. [Article]

Deser, C., 2000: On the teleconnectivity of the "Arctic Oscillation". Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 779-782. [Article]

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, 2000: Reply to Drs. Latif and Ventzke comments on "Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current Extension from the 1970s to the 1980s". J. Climate, 13, 1995-1995. [Article]

Deser, C., M. Alexander, and M. Timlin, 2000: Re-emergence of winter SST anomalies in the North Atlantic. World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), 2000 U.S. WOCE Report, 12, 32-35.

Alexander, M. A., J. D. Scott, and C. Deser, 2000: Processes that influence sea surface temperature and ocean mixed layer depth variability in a coupled model. J. Geophys. Res, 105, C7, 16823-16842. [Article]

Deser, C., J. E. Walsh, M. S. Timlin, 2000: Arctic sea ice variability in the context of recent atmospheric circulation trends. J. Climate, 13, 617-633. [Article]


Alexander, M. A., C. Deser, M. S. Timlin, 1999: The reemergence of SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 12, 2419-2433. [Article]

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, M. S. Timlin, 1999: Evidence for a wind-driven intensification of the Kuroshio Current Extension from the 1970s to the 1980s. J. Climate, 12, 1697-1706. [Article]

Schneider, N., A. J. Miller, M. A. Alexander, and C. Deser 1999: Subduction of decadal North Pacific temperature anomalies: Observations and dynamics. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 1056-1070. [Article]

Schneider, N., S. Venzke, A. J. Miller, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, C. Deser, and M. Latif, 1999: Pacific thermocline bridge revisited. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1329-1332.. [Article]

Dai, A., and C. Deser, 1999: Diurnal and semidiurnal variations in global surface wind and divergence fields. J. Geophys. Res., 104, D24, 31109-31125. [Article]

Deser, C. and C. Smith, 1998: Diurnal and semidiurnal variations of the surface wind field over the Tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 11, 1730-1748. [Article]

Deser, C., and M. Timlin, 1998: Atmosphere-ocean interaction on weekly timescales in the North Atlantic and Pacific. J. Climate, 10, 393-408. [Article]

Deser, C., M. A. Alexander, and M. S. Timlin, 1996: Upper-Ocean Thermal Variations in the North Pacific during 1970-1991. J. Climate, 9, 1840-1855. [Article]

Deser, C., and M. L. Blackmon, 1995: Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900-89. National Academy of Sciences Symposium on Natural Variability of the Climate System on 10-100 Year Time Scales. National Academy Press.

Deser, C. and M. L. Blackmon, 1995: On the relationship between Tropical and North Pacific sea surface temperature variations. J. Climate, 8, 1677-1680. [Article]

Alexander, M. A., C. Deser, 1995: A mechanism for the recurrence of wintertime midlatitude SST anomalies. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 122-137. [Article]


Deser, C., 1994: Daily surface wind variations over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. J. Geophys. Res., 99, D11, 23071-23078. [Article]

Deser, C., and M. L. Blackmon, 1993: Surface climate variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during winter: 1900-89. J. Climate, 6, 1743-1753. [Article]

Deser, C., S. Wahl, and J. J. Bates, 1993: The influence of sea surface temperature gradients on stratiform cloudiness along the equatorial front in the Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 6, 1172-1180. [Article]

Deser, C., 1993: Diagnosis of the surface momentum balance over the tropical Pacific Ocean. J. Climate, 6, 64-74. [Article]

Deser, C., and J. M. Wallace 1990: Large-scale atmospheric circulation features of warm and cold episodes in the Tropical Pacific. J. Climate, 3, 1254-1281. [Article]


Wallace, J. M., T. P. Mitchell, and C. Deser 1989: The influence of sea-surface temperature on surface wind in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific: Seasonal and interannual variability. J. Climate, 2, 1492-1499. [Article]

Richey, J. E., C. Nobre, and C. Deser 1989: Amazon River discharge and climate variability: 1903-1985. Science, 246, (Oct. 1989), 101-103. [Article]

Wright, P. B., J. M. Wallace, T. P. Mitchell, and C. Deser 1988: Correlation structure of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. J. Climate, 1, 609-625. [Article]

Deser, C., and J. M. Wallace 1987: El Nino events and their relationship to the Southern Oscillation: 1925-1986. J. of Geophys. Res., 92, C13, 14189-14196. [Article]