Syllabus for ATMO 632:

               Statistical Methods in Climate Research

 

Instructors:

 

R. Saravanan*

O&M Building, Room 611

Tel: 5-2306

E-mail: svn (at) ucar.edu

 

Gerald North

O&M Building, Room 1204

Tel: 5-8077

E-mail: g-north (at) tamu.edu

 

* Dr. Saravanan is visiting from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado. He will be teaching the first nine weeks of the course.

 

 

Course Website

            http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/~svn/atmo632

 

Textbook:

 

Daniel S. Wilks: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

            Chapter 1 (all sections), 2 (all sections), 3.4-3.6, 4.1-4.5, 5 (all sections),

6.1-6.2, 8.1, 8.3-8.5, 9.1-9.4

 

References:

 

1.      Gerald North: Class notes for ATMO 632      http://www.met.tamu.edu/class/atmo632/SNOTES.pdf

2.      Dennis Hartmann: Class notes on Objective Analysis, Chapters 1-4, 6

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/552_Notes_ftp.html

3.      H. von Storch & A. Navarra (eds.): Analysis of Climate Variability

4.      Gilbert Strang: Linear Algebra and its Applications

 

 

 

 

I. Review of Concepts in Probability & Statistics

  1. Probability concepts
  2. Distributions
  3. Hypothesis testing

 

II. Time Series Analysis

  1. Regression
  2. Principal Component Analysis
  3. Spectral analysis
  4. Monte Carlo methods
  5. Bayesian inference

 

III. Stochastic processes & statistical forecasting

  1. Autoregressive models
  2. Stochastic climate models
  3. Linear inverse modeling
  4. Information theoretic measures of predictability

 

IV. Multivariate time series analysis

  1. Bivariate time series
  2. Cross spectral analysis
  3. Smoothed estimators

 

V. Theory of Empirical Orthogonal Functions

  1. Generating random vectors
  2. Sampling errors
  3. Regression with EOFs
  4. Analytical examples

 

VI. Optimal Detection

  1. K independent estimators
  2. Interfering signals
  3. Examples from 100 years of temperature data

 

 

 

Requirements:

 

The class will be graded on the basis of a mid-term project and a final exam (to be administered by Prof. North). The mid-term project will involve reading a relevant published paper chosen by each student in consultation with the instructor, and presenting a 10-minute summary of the paper to the whole class. The paper should be selected by the end of the 2nd week, and the presentations will be made during the 8th week (i.e., the week of October 18th).