ATMO 632: Week 7

         Predictability, Potential Predictability, and Information Theory

                    Course Home Page: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/~svn/atmo632

 

Reading Material

 

  1. Wilks: Section 6.2 (Regression & Analysis of Variance)
  2. P. Chang, R. Saravanan, T. DelSole, and F. Wang, 2004: Predictability of linear oupled systems. Part I: Theoretical analyses, Journal of Climate, v.17, 1474—1486.
  3. L.Y. Leung and G.R. North, 1990: Information theory and climate prediction, Journal of Climate, v.3, 5—14.
  4. T. Schneider and S. Griffies, 1999: A conceptual framework for predictability studies, Journal of Climate, v.12, 3133—3155.

 

Concepts (overlaps with week 5)

 

            Spectral peaks and predictability

                        Predictability of a damped harmonic oscillator

 

            Two Kinds of Predictability

                        First kind: initial condition dependence

                        Second kind: boundary condition dependence

                        Predictability of weather

                        Predictability of climate

 

            Potential predictability

                        Ensemble-mean

                        Signal-to-noise ratio

                        Analysis of variance (ANOVA)

                        Spatial Aliasing

 

            Information and Entropy

                        Predictive Power

                        Pre-whitening

                        Predictable component analysis