ATMO 632: Week 9

         Predictability, Information Theory, Correlations, Causality

                    Course Home Page: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/~svn/atmo632

 

Reading Material (overlaps with week 7)

 

  1. L.Y. Leung and G.R. North, 1990: Information theory and climate prediction, Journal of Climate, v.3, 5–14.

 

  1. T. Schneider and S. Griffies, 1999: A conceptual framework for predictability studies, Journal of Climate, v.12, 3133–3155.

 

  1. M. H. P. Ambaum, B.J. Hoskins, and D. B. Stephenson, 2001: Arctic Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation? Journal of Climate, v.14, 3495–3507.

 

  1. R. E. Davis, 1976: Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level Pressure Anomalies over the North Pacific Ocean. Journal of Physical Oceanography, v.6, 249–266.

 

Concepts (overlaps with week 7)

 

            Information and Entropy

                        Predictive Power

                        Pre-whitening

                        Predictable component analysis

 

            EOFs and correlations

 

            Linear trends and correlations

 

            Simultaneous vs. lagged correlations

                        Simultaneous correlations say nothing about causality!