Submitted or in preparation

  • Meehl, G.A., H. Teng, and A. Capotondi, 2021: The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Climate Dynamics, submitted.
  • Meehl, G.A., J.H. Richter, et al., 2021: Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, submitted.
  • Meehl, G.A., C. Shields, J.M. Arblaster, H. Annamalai, and R. Neale, 2021: Seasonal mean monsoon simulations in E3SM, JAMES, in preparation.
  • Meehl, G.A. and C. Tebaldi, 2021: Ratio of record daily high temperatures to daily record low temperatures in locations around the world. Clim. Dyn., in preparation.
  • Zhang, L. W. Han, G.A. Meehl, A. Hu, N. Rosenbloom, T. Shinoda, M.J. McPhaden, 2021: Diverse impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole on El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Nature Comms., submitted.
  • Gao, F., T. Wu, J. Zhang, A. Hu, and G.A. Meehl, 2021: Shortened duration of warming slowdowns with elevated greenhouse gas emissions. J. Meteorol. Res., submitted.
  • Li, X., S.-P. Xie, G.A. Meehl, and co-authors, 2021: Antarctic climate changes attributable to teleconnections from the tropics, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, submitted.
  • Power, S., M. Lengaigne , A. Capotondi, M. Khodri , J. Vialard, B. Jebri , E. Guilyardi, S. McGregor, J.-S. Kug, M. Newman, M. McPhaden, G.A. Meehl, D. Smith, A. Wittenberg, J. Cole, M. Collins, G.-I. Kim, W. Cai, Y. Okumura, F. Delage, K. Cobb, C. Chung, Y. Planton, P. Braconnot, A. Levine, J. Emile-Geay, F. Zhu, R. Colman, J. Sprintall, D. Vimont, G. Wang, X. Zhang, J.-J. Luo , X. Lin, M. Balmaseda, E.Di Lorenzo, B. Henley, 2021: A review of decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability and prospects, Science, submitted.
  • Wu, T., A. Hu, J. Zhang, F. Gao, H. Zhao, W. Jie, and G.A. Meehl, 2021: Northern mid-latitude winter cooling tied to Pacific Decadal Variability of sea surface temperature, Science Adv., submitted.
  • Duan, J., Y. Li, F. Wang, A. Hu, W. Han, L. Zhang, P. Lin, N. Rosenbloom, and G.A. Meehl, 2021: Rapid sea-level rise in the southern subtropics missing in climate models, Nature, submitted.
  • Tebaldi, C., G.A. Meehl, and co-authors, 2021: Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6, ESD, in press.
  • Wang, D., J.M. Arblaster, G.A. Meehl, and M.H. England, 2021: The role of coupled feedbacks in the decadal variability of the SH eddy-driven jet, Earth and Space Science Open Archive, submitted.


  • Cazenave, A., G.A. Meehl, M. Montoya, J.R. Toggweiler, and C. Wieners., 2020: Climate change and impacts on variability and interactions, in Interacting Climates of Ocean Basins: Observations, Mechanisms, Predictability, and Impacts, Carlos R. Mechoso, Editor, Cambridge University Press, ISBN: 9781108492706
  • Bock, L., A. Lauer, M. Schlund, M. Barreiro, N. Bellouin, C. Jones, G.A. Meehl, V. Predoi , M.J. Roberts, and V. Eyring, 2020: Quantifying progress across different CMIP phases with the ESMValTool. J. Geophys. Res.,
  • Xu, Y., X. Wu, R. Kumar, M. Barth , M. Gao, L. Lin, B. Jones, and G.A. Meehl, 2020: Substantial increase in the joint occurrence and human exposure of heatwave and high-PM hazards over South Asia in the mid-21st century. AGU Advances, 1, e2019AV000103,
  • Pendergrass, A.G., G.A. Meehl, R. Pulwarty, M. Hobbins, A. Hoell, A. AghaKouchak, C.J.W. Bonfils, A.J.E. Gallant, M. Hoerling, D. Hoffmann, L. Kaatz, F. Lehner, D. Llewellyn, P. Mote, R. Neale, J.T. Overpeck, A. Sheffield, K. Stahl, M. Svoboda, M.C. Wheeler, A.W. Wood, and C.A. Woodhouse, 2020: Flash droughts: High impact events that present a new challenge for subseasonal to seasonal prediction. Nature Climate Change,
  • Richter, J.H., J.A. Anstey, N. Butchart, Y. Kawatani, G. A. Meehl, S. Osprey, I. R. Simpson, 2020: Progress in simulating the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in CMIP models, J. Geophys. Res. Atmospheres, 125,
  • Meehl, G.A., 2020: Climate shifts in the Pacific and global influences, in Interacting Climates of Ocean Basins: Observations, Mechanisms, Predictability, and Impacts, Carlos R. Mechoso, Editor, Cambridge University Press, ISBN: 9781108492706
  • Yang, D., J.M. Arblaster, G.A. Meehl, M.H. England, E.-P Lim, S. Bates, and N. Rosenbloom, 2020: Role of tropical variability in driving decadal shifts in the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven jet. J. Climate, 33, 5445—5463,
  • Meehl, G.A., C. Shields, J.M. Arblaster, H. Annamalai, and R. Neale, 2020: Intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual characteristics of regional monsoon simulations in CESM2, JAMES,
  • Meehl, G.A., C.A. Senior, V. Eyring, G. Flato, J.-F. Lamarque, R.J. Stouffer, K.E. Taylor, and M. Schlund, 2020: Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models, Science Advances,
  • Meehl, G.A, J.M. Arblaster, S. Bates, J.H. Richter, C. Tebaldi, A. Gettelman, B. Medeiros, J. Bacmeister, P. DeRepentigny, N. Rosenbloom, C. Shields, A. Hu, H. Teng, M.J. Mills, and G. Strand, 2020: Characteristics of future warmer base states in CESM2, Earth and Space Science,
  • Ligouri, G., S. McGregor, J.M. Arblaster, M.S. Singh, and G.A. Meehl, 2020: A joint role for forced and internally-driven variability in the decadal modulation of global warming. Nature Comms., in press


  • Eyring, V., P.M. Cox, G.M. Flato, P.J. Gleckler, G. Abramowitz, P. Caldwell, W.D. Collins, B. Gier, A.D. Hall, F.M. Hoffman, G.C. Hurtt, A. Jahn, C.D. Jones, S.A. Klein, J. Krasting, L. Kwiatkowski, R. Lorenz, E. Maloney, G.A. Meehl, A. Pendergrass, R. Pincus, A.C. Ruane, J.L. Russell, B. Sanderson, B. Santer, S.C. Sherwood, I. Simpson, R.J. Stouffer, and M.S. Williamson, 2019: Taking model evaluation to the next level: The multiple and growing benefits of confronting climate models with observations. Nature Climate Change, 9, 102–110,
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, C.T.Y. Chung, M. M. Holland, A. DuVivier, L. Thompson, D. Yang, and C.M. Bitz, 2019: Recent sudden Antarctic sea ice retreat caused by connections to the tropics and sustained ocean changes around Antarctica, Nature Comms., 10:14,
  • Arblaster, J.M., G.A. Meehl, and G. Wang, 2019: Understanding the recent decline in Antarctic sea ice extent. The Conversation,
  • Wu, T., A. Hu, F. Gao, J. Zhang, and G.A. Meehl, 2019: New insights into natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of global/regional climate evolution, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2,
  • Zhang, L., W. Han, K.B. Karnauskas, G.A. Meehl, A. Hu, N. Rosenbloom, and T. Shinoda, 2019: Indian Ocean warming trend reduces Pacific warming response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases: An interbasin thermostat mechanism. Geophs. Res. Lett.,
  • Meehl, G.A., D. Yang, J.M. Arblaster, S. Bates, N. Rosenbloom, R. Neale, J. Bacmeister, P. Lauritzen, F. Bryan, J. Small, J. Truesdale, C. Hannay, C. Shields, W.G. Strand, J. Dennis, and G. Danabasoglu, 2019: Effects of model resolution, physics, and coupling on Southern Hemisphere storm tracks in CESM1.3. Geophys. Res. Lett.,


  • Yeager, S.G., G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, W. Strand, S.C. Bates, G.A. Meehl, A. Karspeck, K. Lindsay, M.C. Long, H. Teng, and N. Lovenduski, 2018: Predicting near-term changes in the Earth System: A large ensemble of initialized decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 1867—1886, Doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0098.1
  • Meehl, G.A., C. Tebaldi, S. Tilmes, J.-F. Lamarque, S. Bates, A. Pendergrass, and D. Lombardozzi, 2018: Future heat waves and surface ozone. Env. Res. Lett.,
  • Li, Y., W. Han, A. Hu, and G.A. Meehl, 2018: Multidecadal changes of the upper Indian Ocean heat content during 1965-2015, J. Climate,
  • Meehl, G.A., C.T.Y. Chung, J.M. Arblaster, M.M. Holland, C.M. Bitz, 2018: Tropical decadal variability and the rate of Arctic sea ice retreat, Geophys. Res. Lett., Doi: 10.1029/2018GL079989
  • Smith, D., G.A. Meehl and co-authors, 2018: Predicted chance that global warming will temporarily exceed 1.5°C, Geophys. Res. Lett., Doi: 10.1029/2018GL079362
  • Han, W., D. Stammer, G.A. Meehl, A. Hu, F. Sienz, and L. Zhang, 2018: Multi-decadal trend and decadal variability of regional sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1960s: Roles of climate modes and external forcing, Climate, 6, 0; Doi: 10.3390/cli6020000


  • Henley, B.J., G.A. Meehl, S.B. Power, C.K. Folland, A.D. King, J.N. Brown, D.J. Karoly, F. Delage, A.J.E. Gallant, M. Freund, and R. Neukom, 2017: Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Env. Res. Lett., 12, 044011
  • Santer, B.D., J.C. Fyfe, G. Pallotta, G.M. Flato, G.A. Meehl, M.H. England, E. Hawkins, M.E. Mann, J.F. Painter, C. Bonfils, I. Cvijanovic, C. Mears, F.J. Wentz, S. Po-Chedley, Q. Fu, and C-Z. Zou, 2017: Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates. Nature Geoscience, Doi: 10.1038/ngeo2973
  • Teng, H., G. Branstator, A. Karspeck, S. Yeager, and G.A. Meehl, 2017: Initialization shock in CCSM4 decadal prediction experiments, CLIVAR Exhanges, Doi: 10.22498/pages.25.1.41
  • Hu, A., G.A. Meehl, D. Stammer, W. Han, W.G. Strand, 2017: The role of perturbing ocean initial condition on simulated regional sea level change, Water, 9(6), 401; Doi: 10.3390/w906040
  • Meehl, G.A., H. van Loon, and Julie M. Arblaster, 2017: The role of the Southern Hemisphere semiannual oscillation in the development of a precursor to central and eastern Pacific Southern Oscillation warm events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, Doi: 10.1002/2017GL073832
  • Han, W., G.A. Meehl, A. Hu, J. Zheng, J. Kenigson, J. Vialard, B. Rajagopalan, and M. Yanto, 2017: Decadal variability of the Indian and Pacific Walker Cells since the 1960s: Do they covary on decadal timescale? J. Climate, Doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0783.1
  • DiNezio, P., C. Deser, A. Karspeck, S. Yeager, Y. Okumura, G. Danabasoglu, N. Rosenbloom, J. Caron, and G.A. Meehl, 2017: A two-year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Nina in 2017-2018. Geophys. Res. Lett., Doi: 10.1002/2017GL074904


  • Eyring, V., S. Bony, G.A. Meehl, C. Senior, B. Stevens, R.J. Stouffer, and K.E. Taylor, 2016: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937-1958, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016.
  • Fyfe, J.C., G.A. Meehl, M.H. England, M.E. Mann, B.D. Santer, G.M. Flato, E. Hawkins, N.P. Gillett, S.-P. Xie, Y. Kosaka, and N.C. Swart, 2016: Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. Nature Climate Change, 6, 224-228, doi:10.1038/nclimate2938.
  • Meehl, G.A., and R. Moss, 2016: Aspen Global Change Institute: 25 years of interdisciplinary global change science. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., DOI:
  • Meehl, G.A., A. Hu, and H. Teng, 2016: Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Nature Communications., 7, doi:10.1038/NCOMMS11718.
  • Teng, H., G. Branstator, G.A. Meehl, and W.M. Washington, 2016: Projected intensification of subseasonal temperature variability and heat waves in the Great Plains. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2165-2173, doi:10.1002/2015GL067574.
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, C. Bitz, C.T.Y. Chung, and H. Teng, 2016: Antarctic sea ice expansion between 2000-2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability. Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2751.
  • Shields, C. A., J. T. Kiehl, and G. A. Meehl, 2016: Future changes in regional precipitation simulated by a half-degree coupled climate model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 8, doi:10.1002/2015MS000584.
  • Meehl, G.A., A. Hu, B.D. Santer, and S.-P. Xie, 2016: Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to twentieth-century global surface temperature trends. Nature Climate Change, 6, DOI:10.1038/nclimate3107.
  • Boer, G.J., D.M. Smith, C. Cassou, F. Doblas-Reyes, G. Danabasoglu, B. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, M. Kimoto, G.A. Meehl, R. Msadek, W.A. Mueller, K. Taylor, F. Zwiers, M. Rixen, Y. Ruprich-Robert, and R. Eade, 2016: The decadal climate prediction project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1-27, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1-2016.
  • O'Neill, B.C., C. Tebaldi, D. van Vuuren, V. Eyring, P. Friedlingstein, G. Hurtt, R. Knutti, E. Kriegler, J.-F. Lamarque, J. Lowe, G.A. Meehl, R. Moss, K. Riahi, and B.M. Sanderson, 2016: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461-3482, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016.
  • Eyring, V., P.J. Gleckler, C. Heinze, R.J. Stouffer, K.E. Taylor, V. Balaji, E. Guilyardi, S. Joussaume, S. Kindermann, B.N. Lawrence, G.A. Meehl, M. Righi, and D.N. Williams, 2016: Towards improved and more routine Earth system model evaluation in CMIP6, Earth System Dynamics, 7, 813-830, doi:10.5194/esd-7-813-2016.
  • Purich, A., M.H. England, W.Cai, Y. Chikamoto, A. Timmermann, J.C. Fyfe, L. Frankcombe, G.A. Meehl, and J.M. Arblaster, 2016: Tropical Pacific SST drivers of recent Antarctic sea ice trends. J. Climate, 29, 8931-8948, DOI:
  • Han, W., G.A. Meehl, D. Stammer, A. Hu, B. Hamlington, J. Kenigson, H. Palanisamy, and P. Thompson, 2016: Spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural internal climate modes. Surveys in Geophys., DOI 10.1007/s10712-016-9386-y.
  • Meehl, G.A., C. Tebaldi, and D. Adams-Smith, 2016: U.S. daily temperature records past, present and future. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi: 10.1073/pnas.1606117113.


  • Hu, A., G.A. Meehl, W. Han, B. Otto-Bliesner, A. Abe-Ouchi, and N. Rosenbloom, 2015: Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates. Progress in Oceanography, 174-196, DOI:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.02.004.
  • Taschetto, A.S., R.R. Rodrigues, G. A. Meehl, S. McGregor, and M. H. England, 2015: How sensitive are the Pacific-North Atlantic teleconnections to the position and intensity of El Niño-related warming. Clim. Dyn., DOI:10.1007/s00382-015-2679-x.
  • Meehl, G.A., 2015: Decadal climate variability and the early-2000s hiatus. U.S. CLIVAR Variations, 13, 1-6.
  • Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, and C.T.Y. Chung, 2015: Disappearance of the southeast U.S. "warming hole" with the late-1990s transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5564-5570, doi:10.1002/2015GL064586.
  • Boer, G., G.A. Meehl, and D. Smith, 2015: Towards improving decadal climate predictions. Eos Transactions, 96, doi:10.1029/2015EO041555,
  • Hu, A., S. Levis, G.A. Meehl, W. Han, W.M. Washington, K.W. Oleson, B.J. van Ruijven, M. He, and W.G. Strand , 2015: Impact of solar panels on global climate. Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2843.
  • Meehl, G.A., H. Teng, N. Maher, and M.H. England, 2015: Effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10,840-10,846, doi:10.1002/2015GL066608.


  • Meehl, G.A., and H. Teng, 2014: CMIP5 multi-model initialized decadal hindcasts for the mid-1970s shift and early-2000s hiatus and predictions for 2016-2035. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL059256.
  • Meehl, G.A., R. Moss, K.E. Taylor, V. Eyring, R.J. Stouffer, S. Bony, and B. Stevens, 2014: Climate model intercomparisons: Preparing for the next phase. Eos Trans., AGU, 95(9), 77.
  • Sejas, S.A., M. Cai, A. Hu, G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, and P.C. Taylor, 2014: Individual feedback contributions to the seasonality of surface warming. J. Climate, 27, 5653-5669, doi:
  • Meehl, G.A., H. Teng and J.M. Arblaster, 2014: Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming. Nature Climate Change, 4, 898-902, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2357.
  • Thompson, D.M., J.E. Cole, G.T. Shen, A.W. Tudhope and G.A. Meehl, 2014: Early 20th century global warming linked to tropical Pacific wind strength. Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2321.
  • Meehl, G.A., and H. Teng, 2014: Regional precipitation simulations for the mid-1970s shift and early-2000s hiatus. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, doi: 10.1002/2014GL061778.
  • Meehl, G.A. and R. Moss, 2014: Twenty-five Years of Interdisciplinary Global Change Science, Eos, 95, 478, DOI: 10.1002/2014EO500007.
  • van Loon, H., and G. A. Meehl (2014), Interactions between externally forced climate signals from sunspot peaks and the internally generated Pacific Decadal and North Atlantic Oscillations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 161166, doi:10.1002/2013GL058670.
  • England, M. H., S. McGregor, P. Spence, G. A. Meehl, A. Timmermann, W. Cai, A. Sen Gupta, M. J. McPhaden, A. Purich and A. Santoso, 2014: Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nature Climate Change, 4, 222-227, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2106.
  • Meehl, G. A., and H. Teng (2014), CMIP5 multi-model hindcasts for the mid-1970s shift and early 2000s hiatus and predictions for 2016-2035, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 17111716, doi:10.1002/2014GL059256.
  • Meehl, Gerald A., and Coauthors, 2014: Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 243267. doi:
  • Wuebbles, D., G.A. Meehl, K. Hayhoe, T.R. Karl, K. Kunkel, B. Santer, M. Wehner, B. Colle, E.M. Fischer, R. Fu, A. Goodman, E. Janssen, H. Lee, W. Li, L.N. Long, S. Olsen, A. Seth, J. Sheffield, and L. Sun, 2014: CMIP5 climate model analyses: Climate extremes in the United States, Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 571583. doi: