A new forcing that can affect seasonal to decadal variability in the tropical Pacific
Gerald Meehl, NCAR
11:00 am – 12:00 pm MDT
Webcast
The huge amounts of smoke produced by the disastrous 2019-2020 Australian bushfires are shown to be a previously unrecognized forcing that affected the onset of a La Niña event in 2020 and resulted in processes that sustained that “triple-dip La Niña” over the next several years with significant impacts worldwide. Initialized Earth system model hindcasts with E3SMv2 and CESM2 with and without the effects of the smoke show Bjerknes feedback, first triggered by the Australian bushfire smoke through interactions with clouds in the eastern Pacific, sustained the triple-dip La Niña conditions. Important processes include an intensified anomalous Walker Circulation that connected strengthened precipitation and ascent in the western Pacific with anomalous subsidence, an invigorated South Pacific High, stronger Trades, and cooler SSTs across the tropical Pacific. In the model hindcasts and observations, the North Pacific Meridional Mode is important for ending the multi-year event. Understanding this newly discovered role of wildfire smoke points to mechanisms involved with the onset, duration, and transition out of the multi-year La Niña to El Niño with implications for current predictions of an El Niño this year.