Sahara greening may have diminished mid-holocene atlantic tropical cyclones
Ou, Y., Zhang, M., Liu, Y., Zhao, H., Cao, X., et al. (2026). Sahara greening may have diminished mid-holocene atlantic tropical cyclones. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03481-4
| Title | Sahara greening may have diminished mid-holocene atlantic tropical cyclones |
|---|---|
| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | Y. Ou, M. Zhang, Y. Liu, H. Zhao, X. Cao, Jiang Zhu |
| Abstract | While anthropogenic warming is projected to green the Sahara region, the potential impacts on tropical cyclone remain poorly understood. Here we examine the mid-Holocene Sahara greening (characterized by expanded vegetation and reduced dust emissions) as a potential analog for the future, combining high-resolution global atmospheric model simulations with paleoclimate proxy records. The simulation results demonstrate that without Sahara greening, the mid-Holocene tropical cyclone distribution resembles the pre-industrial pattern, albeit with an eastward shift of tropical cyclone genesis in the North Pacific. The greening of Sahara dramatically reduced North Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency to near-zero levels while causing minimal changes in other basins. The greening-induced tropical cyclone suppression primarily resulted from enhanced vertical wind shear off West Africa and reduced low-level moisture over the western tropical North Atlantic. These findings align with reconstructed North Atlantic tropical cyclone variability and may provide insights into its future activity under anthropogenic Sahara greening. Greening of the Sahara may reduce tropical cyclones over the North Atlantic, due to enhanced vertical wind shear and reduced low-level moisture, according to combined high-resolution global atmospheric modelling and paleoclimate proxy records. |
| Publication Title | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Publication Date | Apr 1, 2026 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03481-4 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qv3s38 |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| CGD Affiliations | PPC |