Atmospheric Modeling & Predictability Section

Environmental Photo

Who We Are  

The Atmospheric Modeling and Predictability (AMP) section is a diverse group of researchers and software engineers, whose expertise spans the theoretical and applied disciplines of atmospheric and earth system science. We are also a collaborative staff combining technical and scientific expertise to provide world-class community atmosphere modeling and diagnostics.  

Our Mission

To diagnose, investigate, and understand the fundamental processes and predictability of the atmosphere and their role in their earth system, while providing modeling tools that encapsulate this knowledge and making them accessible, equitable, and usable for the broader research community.

Model Development 

Our understanding is encapsulated in atmospheric model component models forming part of the CESM modeling ecosystem. The development and support of these models through the CESM Atmospheric Model Working Group (AMWG) and Software Engineering Working Group (SEWG) is a key community activity of the section, and close collaboration between software engineers and scientists enables us to provide the most robust and usable models for research. We work across NCAR labs to develop versions of CAM with a high top (WACCM) and chemistry enabled capabilities (CAM-CHEM). We are also building a model hierarchy within CAM that spans complexities from the most simple of configurations through to the fully coupled CESM. Section staff are also an integral part of the development of the NCAR System Integrated for Modeling of the Atmosphere (SIMA); an activity to streamline interoperable atmosphere modeling, with applications requiring resolutions at the km scale. As part of all these model development and validation activities, we collaborate routinely with MMM (MPAS), RAL, ACOM, and HAO.

Research Themes 

AMP scientists perform fundamental research aimed at understanding a broad spectrum of atmospheric processes and their role in the earth system. This ranges from physical and dynamical processes at their foundational levels, to the subtle interactions of the whole earth system requiring the use of observations and a hierarchy of models in order to gain insight. Many of the most pressing questions in climate science are being addressed.

Process Research: Investigating the fundamentals of atmospheric science including physical and dynamical processes, their critical interactions, and their impact on predictability.

Model Development: Formulating and validating the representation of atmospheric and coupled processes to be included in the model ecosystem of CESM .

Climate Feedbacks: Quantifying the atmospheric process feedbacks responsible for uncertainty in earth system climate sensitivities and addressing climate change risk 

Model Assessment, Infrastructure, and Tools: Employing diagnostics tools, simple models, and novel techniques to better investigate the atmosphere and its inherent uncertainties.