Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation prediction skill
Meeker, E. D., Maroon, E. A., Deppenmeier, A., Thompson, L., Vimont, D. J., et al. (2025). Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation prediction skill. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116122
| Title | Seasonality of Pacific Decadal Oscillation prediction skill |
|---|---|
| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | E. D. Meeker, E. A. Maroon, A. Deppenmeier, L. Thompson, D. J. Vimont, Stephen Yeager |
| Abstract | We investigate coupled climate model initialized predictions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) prediction skill in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multi Year Large Ensemble (SMYLE). The PDO is predictable up to a year in advance in SMYLE; however, the predictability depends on verification month, with skill degrading most rapidly in boreal spring for all initializations. To examine the role of teleconnections from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the prediction skill of the PDO, we use a multi‐linear regression model. The linear model shows that initial value persistence explains most of the PDO prediction skill in SMYLE. In addition, the PDO prediction skill's seasonal dependence is fully reproduced only when ENSO is included as a predictor. These results suggest that ENSO has a strong influence on the seasonality of PDO predictions. |
| Publication Title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Publication Date | Jul 28, 2025 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116122 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7154ngt |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| CGD Affiliations | ESP |