Research Highlights

Predictability of Polar Environmental Conditions: We are investigating the predictability of polar environmental conditions across timescales from seasons to decades. This includes work to understand the initial value predictability of sea ice at regional scales and how this can impart predictability to the marine ecosystem through influences on light availability and nutrient cycling. 

Simulation of Mountain Glacier Mass Balance and Dynamics: We have implemented a new framework for simulating the dynamic evolution of mountain glaciers in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). We are presently simulating the glaciers of the Alps and High Mountain Asia to study their past state and future evolution, under the protocols established by the third phase of the GlacierMIP project (GlacierMIP3). This is the first use of a 3D, higher-order ice flow model to conduct regional-scale glacier mass balance and dynamics assessments at sub-km (~100–200 m) scales.

Inform Sensitivity of CESM through Simulation of Past States: We are performing CESM simulations of the past greenhouse and icehouse systems and comparing the modeled temperatures against the geological data to assess how well they simulate these conditions. This assessment can be used to inform the physical parameterizations and improve CESM. The uniqueness of this paleo-approach is the real-world, out-of-sample data on the system forcing and response that the Earth’s past states can provide.

Variable Resolution Simulations with Isotopes: Water isotopes are a powerful tool for studying hydroclimate variability and change and a sensitive tracer for evaluating the skill of water cycling in CESM. We are performing variable-resolution CESM simulations with water isotope tracers to provide a cost-effective approach for resolving fine-scale hydroclimate processes in key regions with complex terrain, understanding the associated large-scale mechanisms from remote regions, and reconstructing regional impacts in the past by comparing simulation output with isotopic proxy data.

 

Community Projects

Convergence Research on the Changing Arctic Environment: We are involved in a number of community projects to co-produce information on Arctic climate change and implications for people. This includes participation in a number of NSF-supported programs, including the Rising Voices Changing Coasts Hub, the Study of Environmental Arctic Change project (SEARCH) and projects under the Navigating the New Arctic program. These projects integrate Indigenous Knowledge and Earth System Science to better understand changes underway in the Arctic, their impacts on local communities, and effective and equitable solutions.

Extreme Weather Events Under a Wide Range of Climates: We are developing, with university collaborators, an unprecedented set of high- and variable-resolution paleoclimate simulations to investigate characteristics of extreme weather events under a wide range of past warm and cold climates. This project will leverage the computing resources awarded by the NCAR Accelerated Scientific Discovery (ASD) and the Frontera Large-Scale Community Partnerships, as well as fundings from NSF (and private foundation). This project combines model simulations with paleoclimate observational data and aims to improve our understanding of the dependence of extreme events on the background climate state, which can help better project the future extremes under global warming.