ASP Workshop on Subseasonal to Seasonal Science and Applications 2022

Overview

This workshop on "The Science of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Predictions" is intended for students and lecturers who participated in the 2021 ASP summer colloquium.

Every year, the Advanced Study Program hosts a summer colloquium designed for graduate students on subjects that represent new or rapidly developing areas. The colloquium brings together experts from NCAR and the community at large together with a small group of 25-30 graduate students.

This workshop is the in-person component of last year’s colloquium, which had to be held virtually. It is intended for advanced graduate students whose expertise includes atmospheric and adjacent sciences. It will feature lectures and latest research from domestic and international experts on the fundamental processes leading to S2S predictability such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, and atmospheric interactions with the ocean, the land and cryosphere.

The workshop will be held in-person in Boulder, Colorado and will consist of lectures in the morning (9:00 AM - 12:30 PM Mountain Daylight Time UTC-7) followed by breakout sessions in the afternoons.

Excursion

On Wednesday afternoon, July 13, 2022 an excursion to one of Boulder’s hydroelectric facilities (Boulder Canyon Hydro) and dams (Barker Dam) is planned. This will be followed by some free time in the mountain town of Nederland, Colorado.

Motivation

In recent years there has been increasing interest to improve predictions on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale. It bridges the prediction gap between weather and climate and forecasts on this timescale are highly sought after by the energy, water management, agriculture, and other sectors for decision making. This timescale is challenging because it poses the limit of predictability from initializations (predictability of the first kind) and predictions are only skillful under certain conditions.

The workshop will provide attendees with an integrated conceptual understanding of earth system processes that influence S2S predictions, numerical modeling, initialization strategies, ensemble configuration and applications of S2S-predictions.

Invited Speakers

• Lance Bosart, “Synoptic drivers”
• Will Chapman, UCAR, “State-dependence of MJO”
• Shuyi Chen, University of Washington, “Tropical Meteorology, coupling”
• Mike DeFlorio, University of California, San Diego, “S2S forecasts for the US West”
• Paul Dirmeyer, George Mason University: “Land surface and S2S predictability”
• Donata Giglio, University of Colorado, “Ocean observations”
• Lucas Harris - NOAA
• Marika Holland, NCAR, “Sea Ice”
• Arun Kumar, NCEP, “S2S Predictions at NCEP”
• Zachary Lawrence, CIRES & NOAA/ESRL PSD, “Stratosphere-troposphere coupling”
• Angel Munoz: “Flow-dependent Cross-timescale Model Diagnostics”
• Eric Maloney, Colorado State University,“Tropical meteorology”
• Neena Mani Joseph, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Pune, India: “S2S predictions for Monsoon and MJO"
• Rich Neale, NCAR: “Blocking, MJO”
• Matt Newman, CIRES/NOAA, “ENSO and S2S ocean predictions”
• Kathy Pegion, George Mason University
• Sam Stevenson, UC Santa Barbara, “Seasonal precipitation extremes and drought in a changing climate"
• Yaga Richter, NCAR: “Stratosphere-troposphere coupling”
• Yuhei Takaya, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency: “S2S prediction in the tropics (esp. for extreme events)”
• Carolyn Reynolds, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California
• Joe Tribbia, NCAR: “Ensemble forecasting”
• Andrew Robertson, IRI “ Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts”
• Frederic Vitart, ECMWF, UK: “Setting the stage for S2S predictability and predictions”
• Andy Wood, NCAR, “Hydrological applications”
• Chidong Zhang, University of Washington, “Tropical meteorology, teleconnections”

Invited Panel Members

• Eric DeWeaver, NSF Climate and Largescale Dynamics
• Estelle De Coning, World Weather Research Programme
• Jeanine Jones, California Department of Water Resources
• Jesse Carman, NOAA WPO
• Sandy Lucas, NOAA program manager, Climate Variability and Predictability

Sponsors