OpenSky Publications
CGD OpenSky Publications
There are 5847 publications affiliated with CGD.
Select a year, sub-unit, genre, and/or CGD author to view peer-reviewed publications involving authors from CGD. The author list covers CGD staff; publications they co-authored with colleagues elsewhere are included. You can browse the full list of publications and search for specific ones in OpenSky, the open-access repository of scholarly works developed and managed by NSF NCAR Library.
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Bross, J., Quandt, A., Simpson, I. R., Foster, A. C., Lacey, F.. (2026). Evaluating farmers' adaptation strategies amid rising heat and climatic extremes in San Diego County, California. Climate Risk Management, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2026.100880 California's agricultural sector faces intensifying climate risks, yet research has concentrated on large commodity production regions, leaving small-farm and specialty crop systems underexamined. San Diego County, home to more than 4000 fa... CGD Affiliations: CAS, TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Extreme events as an inadequately explored measure of solar geoengineering performance Quagraine, K. A., Tye, M., Quagraine, K. T., Lennard, C.. (2026). Extreme events as an inadequately explored measure of solar geoengineering performance. Environmental Research Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae9f31 Global mean surface temperature is the primary target used to design and compare solar geoengineering simulations and it is a useful first-order predictor of the climate response. Its limits as a measure of performance, however, remain larg... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A dynamic framework for marine radioactivity baselines Tsumune, D., Bryan, F. O., Lindsay, K., Misumi, K., Inomata, Y., et al. (2026). A dynamic framework for marine radioactivity baselines. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2026.108147 Radiocesium-137 (137Cs) is a useful tracer of ocean circulation because of its long physical half-life and relatively conservative behavior in seawater. We investigated variability in Pacific 137Cs concentrations and apparent half-lives usi... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Swann, A. L. S., Koven, C. D., Proistosecu, C., Fisher, R. A., Sanderson, B. M., et al. (2026). Land carbon response to positive, zero, and negative co<sub>2</sub> emissions across Earth system models. Earth System Dynamics, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1237-2026 Land carbon sinks are responsible for removing about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and make up approximately half of total global carbon sinks. Uncertainty in the response of land carbon sinks to climate and changing atmospheric... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Stratospheric ozone projections under sulfur-based stratospheric aerosol injection Bednarz, E. M., Butler, A. H., Haywood, J. M., Henry, M., Jones, A., et al. (2026). Stratospheric ozone projections under sulfur-based stratospheric aerosol injection. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-12751-2026 Owing to the crucial role of stratospheric ozone in shielding the Earth from harmful solar ultraviolet radiation, impacts of human activities on the ozone layer remain of interest. Here we provide an assessment of the potential impacts of S... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Visioni, D., Robock, A., Duffey, A., Henry, M., Hirasawa, H., et al. (2026). The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) contribution to cmip7-description of new experimental protocols and preliminary results. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-8469-2026 The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) is a coordinated international model intercomparison effort with the aim of providing robust experimental protocols for simulations of various Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) meth... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Heavy precipitation simulation in non-hydrostatic CESM modeling over the western US Huang, X., Medeiros, B.. (2026). Heavy precipitation simulation in non-hydrostatic CESM modeling over the western US. Atmospheric Research, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109058 This study evaluates the ability of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), with the non-hydrostatic Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) dynamical core coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to simulate heavy prec... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Process-based model parameters for post-fire snow hydrology Koshkin, A., Marshall, A. M., Wood, A.. (2026). Process-based model parameters for post-fire snow hydrology. Water Resources Research, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026wr043508 Wildfires fundamentally alter snow accumulation and melt dynamics by modifying forest canopy structure, snow albedo, and snowpack physical properties. Despite the growing body of work on fire impacts on snow, few studies have used physicall... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Identifying and correcting inhomogeneities in the near-surface specific humidity record McKinnon, K. A., Yang, A., Feng, A., McEvoy, K., Simpson, I. R., et al. (2026). Identifying and correcting inhomogeneities in the near-surface specific humidity record. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122848 There are notable discrepancies between near-surface humidity trends in observational products as compared to climate models. Here, we explore the extent to which the discrepancy can be explained by inhomogeneities in the observational reco... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Paleo data assimilation of coral <i>δ</i>18o Part 2 Sanchez, S., Zhu, F., Saenger, C., Thompson, D.. (2026). Paleo data assimilation of coral <i>δ</i>18o Part 2. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025pa005336 Limited instrumental observations have created uncertainties in the rates and patterns of historical variations in tropical sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and salinity. Coral archives are well suited to monitor past variations in t... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Paleo data assimilation of coral δ18o part 1 Sanchez, S., Zhu, F., Saenger, C., Thompson, D.. (2026). Paleo data assimilation of coral δ18o part 1. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025pa005335 Uncertainties in early 20th-century observations limit understanding of the full range of internal climate variability and muddle understanding of climate system response to external forcing. Coral archives can provide high-resolution infor... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Riverine nitrate fate and Transport in the Great Lakes Basin using the Community Land Model Felfelani, F., Pokhrel, Y., Phanikumar, M., Lawrence, D. M.. (2026). Riverine nitrate fate and Transport in the Great Lakes Basin using the Community Land Model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005595 Agriculture and urbanization have profoundly altered the terrestrial nitrogen cycle, leading to widespread water quality degradation. Nitrogen leached from managed soils is transported and transformed through river networks, influencing dow... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Blazing a path: Current progress and needs toward improving wildfire prediction Albers, J., Malloy, K., Molina, M., Johnson, A.. (2026). Blazing a path: Current progress and needs toward improving wildfire prediction. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/8cyx-yw96 This issue of US CLIVAR Variations examines wildfire prediction on weather-to-seasonal timescales, framing wildfire as a complex, multi-stage hazard—ignition, spread, containment, and secondary effects like smoke and debris flows—each with ... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Program Newsletter View on OpenSky |
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Silwimba, K., Flores, A. N., Hawkins, L. R., Becker, C., Dagon, K., et al. (2026). Efficient emulation, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis for a Land surface Model using evidential deep learning. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005587 Land surface models (LSMs), such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5), represent complex vegetation processes; however, systematic biases persist between modeled and observed leaf area index (LAI) because of parameter uncertainties ... CGD Affiliations: ESP, CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Tucker, A., Dumont, M., Singley, J., Lenssen, N., Callahan, R., et al. (2026). Bridging single-tree processes and regional-scale patterns to explain vegetation drought resistance and resilience in a Sierra nevada headwater catchment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jg009585 Droughts have been extensively studied at small to large scales, yet limited work has integrated the mountain-range and tree-level perspectives to explain tree drought response at the intra-catchment scale where management decisions are mad... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Harnessing Land-Atmosphere Interactions to enhance subseasonal-to-seasonal Predictability He, C., Zhang, L. N., Leung, L. R., Richter, J. H., Bassett, C., et al. (2026). Harnessing Land-Atmosphere Interactions to enhance subseasonal-to-seasonal Predictability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-25-0255.1 2025 Advancing Understanding of Land-Atmosphere Interactions and Processes on S2S Predictability Workshop What: 227 registered workshop participants gathered in person (43%) and online (57%) to discuss state-of-the-art scientific understand... CGD Affiliations: AMP, ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A probabilistic framework with uncertainty decomposition for Arctic maritime risk prediction Kandel, R., Baroud, H., DuVivier, A. K., Bennartz, R.. (2026). A probabilistic framework with uncertainty decomposition for Arctic maritime risk prediction. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2026.113318 Predicting Arctic shipping incidents is challenging not only because conditions are harsh, but because the environmental data driving those predictions are themselves uncertain. Existing Arctic risk models do not distinguish whether an unre... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Regime shifts of amoc-sea surface temperature relationship Fan, Y., Chan, D., Danabasoglu, G., Kim, W. M., Zhang, P., et al. (2026). Regime shifts of amoc-sea surface temperature relationship. Nature Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-76149-4 The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays critical roles in regulating climate, and subpolar North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns are widely used to infer changes in its strength. Yet the stationarity of ... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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End-to-end modeling for the Ross Sea Region Marine Protected Area Lovvorn, J., Nissen, C., Bahl, A., Behrens, E., Brooks, C. M., et al. (2026). End-to-end modeling for the Ross Sea Region Marine Protected Area. Frontiers in Marine Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2026.1886905 The challenge of protecting marine ecosystems, including biodiversity and manifold interactions in changing environments, has encouraged development of end-to-end models linking physical drivers through entire food webs to upper-level preda... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Data-driven equation discovery of a sea ice albedo parametrisation Atmojo, D., Weigel, K., Grundner, A., Holland, M. M., Sidorenko, D., et al. (2026). Data-driven equation discovery of a sea ice albedo parametrisation. Cryosphere, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4437-2026 In many sea ice models, a single-category, zero layer thermodynamic scheme is employed, in which sea ice albedo is prescribed based on surface types depending on snow cover, surface temperature, or sea ice thickness. The Parkinson and Washi... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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North, L., Marshall, A. M., Tootle, G., Davis, L., Wood, A., et al. (2026). Hydrologic model parameter estimation in snow-dominated headwater catchments using multiple observation datasets. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-5195-2026 Hydrologic models are often calibrated using streamflow alone, but increasing availability of in situ and satellite-based observations provide numerous opportunities to constrain model outputs and improve process representation. However, as... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Lee, W., Tilmes, S., Bednarz, E. M.. (2026). Exploring divergent long-term stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with the G2-SAI and ARISE-hybrid experiments. Earth System Dynamics, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1117-2026 Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) simulations are often short relative to climatic timescales and conducted against a background that evolves due to changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and other forcings. This can cause ch... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Paleoclimate data assimilation with adaptive observation error inflation and adaptive localization Luo, G., Zeng, Y., Zhu, F., Zhao, J.. (2026). Paleoclimate data assimilation with adaptive observation error inflation and adaptive localization. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7893-2026 Paleoclimate data assimilation methods significantly enhance the accuracy, spatiotemporal continuity, and global relevance of climate reconstructions by integrating Earth system models with proxy records. In this study, we further improve t... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Weak tropical tropospheric OH response to idealized ENSO Zhu, Q., Fiore, A., Pincus, R., Guan, J., Singer, C. E., et al. (2026). Weak tropical tropospheric OH response to idealized ENSO. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122619 The hydroxyl radical (OH) is a key oxidant for methane. Previous studies suggest that OH exhibits interannual variability linked to the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the sign, magnitude, and underlying mechanisms of this response... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Rapid evaluation framework for the CMIP7 assessment fast track Hoffman, F. M., Hassler, B., Swaminathan, R., Lewis, J., Andela, B., et al. (2026). Rapid evaluation framework for the CMIP7 assessment fast track. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7415-2026 As Earth system models (ESMs) grow in complexity and in volume of output data, there is an increasing need for rapid, comprehensive evaluation of their scientific performance. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the ... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Significance of size‐dependent hygroscopicity parameterization for aerosol‐cloud interactions Gohil, K., Gettelman, A., Asa-Awuku, A.. (2026). Significance of size‐dependent hygroscopicity parameterization for aerosol‐cloud interactions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd045283 Aerosol‐cloud interactions (aerosol indirect effects) are the most significant source of uncertainties in the effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to aerosols which can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Uncertainties in the indirect ... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Optimizing the rainwater harvesting and roof sprinkling system to adapt to urban extreme heat Yu, J., Oleson, K. W., Qin, Y., Zhao, L., Topping, D. O., et al. (2026). Optimizing the rainwater harvesting and roof sprinkling system to adapt to urban extreme heat. Earth's Future, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008876 Roof watering is a novel strategy for reducing air conditioning energy consumption and mitigating excess urban heat, yet its application is often constrained by water availability. To address this challenge, we propose an adaptation strateg... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Si, W., Lee, T., Zeng, W., Nicklas, J., Hu, A., et al. (2026). Robust decision‐making via uncertainty quantification in deep learning models for marine microfossil classification. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026pa005434 Taxonomic identification of marine microfossils such as foraminifera and coccolithophores is essential for reconstructing past oceanographic and climatic conditions. However, this process remains a major bottleneck in paleoclimate research ... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Luo, J., Hess, P. G., Hall, S., Loper, H., Lombardozzi, D., et al. (2026). Agricultural emissions of reactive nitrogen gases from constrained simulations using the community land model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005455 Reactive nitrogen (Nr) gases (NH 3 , N 2 O, and NO) emitted from agricultural fields constitute a substantial portion of the Nr flux from land to the atmosphere. Here, we coupled the Flows of Agricultural Nitrogen (FANv3) with a modified ve... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A glacial fjord box model: derivation and representation of glacially modified water Cordero, T., Bryan, F. O., McClean, J. L., Gille, S. T., Marques, G. M.. (2026). A glacial fjord box model: derivation and representation of glacially modified water. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ms004794 Fjords are a crucial connection between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the ocean, but remain unrepresented at the scale of many Earth System Models. To parameterize mixing within them, we modify a two‐layer estuary box model to include buoyant... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Widespread tropical cyclone activity during the Late Paleozoic Ice Age Yan, Q., Macarewich, S., Jiang, N., Kemp, D., Huan, D., et al. (2026). Widespread tropical cyclone activity during the Late Paleozoic Ice Age. Nature Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-75609-1 Whether tropical cyclone (TC) activity prevailed during the Late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA)-the longest icehouse of the Phanerozoic-remains debated, owing to the paucity and ambiguity of sedimentary evidence. To help resolve this conflict, we... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Henry, H., Wheeler, I., Luchauer, G., Asay, B., Bowles, N., et al. (2026). Adaptive governance during an unprecedented marine heatwave: Case study from the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2025.2504516 In 2023, the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS) faced its most severe marine heatwave on record, lasting from June to October. This event necessitated the first-ever mass evacuation of corals as part of the ongoing efforts under... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sustainable Blue: A participatory spatial decision support system for fishery management Zhang, Z., Song, Z., Chang, P., Tao, J., Petrik, C., et al. (2026). Sustainable Blue: A participatory spatial decision support system for fishery management. Annals of the American Association of Geographers, doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2026.2648341 Improved decision-making capabilities are essential for sustaining fisheries, particularly as fisheries managers must consider the complex interdependencies among fishing efforts, changes in ocean physics and biogeochemistry, and decision-m... CGD Affiliations: TSS, OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Changes in ENSO oscillatory dynamics associated with zonal shifts in air-sea coupling region Molina, B. A., DiNezio, P. N., Deser, C.. (2026). Changes in ENSO oscillatory dynamics associated with zonal shifts in air-sea coupling region. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0074.1 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) oscillates between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases, but observations indicate that this oscillatory behavior is irregular and asymmetric. Using the NCAR Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), we ... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sun, C., Zhu, J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Brady, E. C., Macarewich, S.. (2026). Collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Heinrich Stadials triggered by cordilleran Ice sheet meltwater. Nature Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-75199-y Heinrich Stadials provide insights into a potential future weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), yet the mechanisms driving AMOC weakening during these intervals remain elusive. While Heinrich Stadials are ass... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Generating a 1000-member Ensemble of integrated water vapor transport Forecasts with diffusion Higgins, T. B., Chapman, W., Subramanian, A. C., Monache, L. D.. (2026). Generating a 1000-member Ensemble of integrated water vapor transport Forecasts with diffusion. Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/aies-d-25-0075.1 Ensemble weather predictions can be critical toward making informed decisions for operations that require risk assessment. The traditional approach toward creating an ensemble often involves making slight perturbations to initial conditions... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Harrison, C. S., Faulkner, W., Coupe, J., Asante, E., Bardeen, C., et al. (2026). Accessible climate and impact model output for studying the human and environmental impacts of nuclear conflict. Geoscience Data Journal, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.70076 Nuclear winter refers to the suite of physical and biological consequences that may follow nuclear conflict, particularly the cooling and darkening of Earth's surface due to black carbon soot in the upper atmosphere. While the associated ch... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Changing dynamics of the arctic ocean–ice system: drivers, feedbacks, and future trajectories Polyakov, I., Ding, Q., Holland, M. M., Stroeve, J.. (2026). Changing dynamics of the arctic ocean–ice system: drivers, feedbacks, and future trajectories. Reviews of Geophysics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025rg000908 The Arctic is undergoing rapid and disproportionate climate change, driven by tightly coupled interactions among the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. This review synthesizes current understanding of historical and projected changes in the Ar... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Unifying the QBO, MJO shallow‐to‐deep convection transitions, and mesoscale convective systems Huang, K., Chen, C., Moncrieff, M. W., Richter, J. H.. (2026). Unifying the QBO, MJO shallow‐to‐deep convection transitions, and mesoscale convective systems. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119452 This study investigates Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) convective structures to better understand how the Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) impacts MJO propagation. We find that during the QBO easterly (QBOE) phase, MJO events exhibit conve... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Advancing earth system science with and for the community: shaping NSF ncar's AI strategy Richter, J. H., Harney, L., Haacker, R., Clyne, J. P., Cains, M., et al. (2026). Advancing earth system science with and for the community: shaping NSF ncar's AI strategy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-26-0202.1 Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are rapidly transforming Earth system science (ESS), enabling new approaches to observation, data assimilation, and forecasting across interconnected atmospheric, chemical, hydrological... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Chen, Z., Jacob, D. J., Lin, H., Balasus, N., Hancock, S. E., et al. (2026). Tropicalwetland methane emissions and trends (2004–2023)inferred from landsat-based inundated vegetation data. Environmental Science & Technology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c05412 The role of tropical wetlands in the recent rise of atmospheric methane remains unclear. Most models find no significant emission trends, partly because wetlands are defined by surface water extent without distinguishing high-emitting inund... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The TIPMIP earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1 Jones, C., Bossert, I., Dennis, D., Jeffery, H., Jones, C. D., et al. (2026). The TIPMIP earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026 We describe a new Earth system model (ESM) experiment protocol, as part of the international Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) project. We propose this as a protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 7 (C... CGD Affiliations: OS, ESP, PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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McDermid, S. S., Cook, B. I., Singh, R., Harper, A., Lombardozzi, D.. (2026). Twentieth-century north american reforestation as an historical analogue for examining natural climate solutions. Environmental Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8d3b Regional forests—their avoided conversion, reforestation, and even afforestation—are increasingly invoked as Natural Climate Solutions that can support climate change mitigation goals, particularly at national and subnational scales of deci... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Nardi, K., Zarzycki, C., Larson, V. E., Stephens, B., Bryan, G. H., et al. (2026). Assessing the impact of countergradient fluxes on the general circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121230 Parameterizing boundary layer turbulence in Earth System Models (ESMs) introduces a key source of uncertainty. Here, we explore the impact of implementing a prognostic formulation (PMF) for momentum flux, which permits countergradient (CG) ... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Importance of Spatially Continuous Urban Surface Properties in Urban‐Resolving Earth System Modeling Cheng, Y., Zhao, L., Oleson, K. W., Chakraborty, T., Zhang, K., et al. (2026). Importance of Spatially Continuous Urban Surface Properties in Urban‐Resolving Earth System Modeling. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005573 Accurate representation of urban properties and processes at higher resolutions in global modeling systems is essential for advancing our ability to capture the complexities of urban systems and informing effective resilience strategies. Ho... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Toker, E., Ilicak, M., Danabasoglu, G., Sen, O. L.. (2026). Climatic impacts of a warmer mediterranean sea simulated by the fully coupled community earth system model, version 2 (CESM2). Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0540.1 This study presents a set of process-oriented sensitivity experiments using the state-of-the-art fully coupled Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), for the first time to isolate the role of Mediterranean sea surface temperature ... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Siles, M. S., Marin-Moraga, J., Mora, E. S., Alpizar, J. V., Koller, D. V., et al. (2026). Finding refuge in a changing climate: implementing a coral bleaching contingency plan for a reef restoration project in the south pacific of costa rica. Revista de Biología Tropical, doi:https://doi.org/10.15517/0jr52w81 Introduction: The 2023–2024 global coral bleaching event severely impacted coral communities and reefs across the South Pacific of Costa Rica. Understanding coral species and genotype responses to extreme heat stress is critical to improvin... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The emerging antarctic amplification Wu, Q., Tian, J., Yu, Q., LIU, S., Yang, C., et al. (2026). The emerging antarctic amplification. National Science Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwag343 Qigang Wu, JiKai Tian, Qianyi Yu, Shizuo Li, Chang Yang, Aixue Hu, Lei Zhang; The emerging antarctic amplification, National Science Review, , nwag343, htt CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Fahrin, F., Gonzalez, A., Cesana, G., DeMott, C., Neale, R.. (2026). Representation of stratocumulus and shallow cumulus cloud fraction near the southeast Pacific ocean ITCZ in ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalyses. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044949 Model precipitation biases in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) are often tied to the underestimation of stratocumulus (Sc) and shallow cumulus (Cu) clouds. We design a method to distinguish between Sc and Cu cloud regimes under sub... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sun, L., Wills, R. C. J., Deser, C., Herrington, A. R., Simpson, I. R., et al. (2026). Increased model resolution amplifies boreal winter Arctic precipitation and atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0260.1 The impact of future Arctic sea ice loss on local climate and large-scale atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied, including through the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). However, the influence of horiz... CGD Affiliations: CAS, AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Terrestrial carbon stock vulnerability during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum Fang, X., Izumi, K., Jiang, S., Zhu, J., Su, T., et al. (2026). Terrestrial carbon stock vulnerability during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03682-x The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum is a key analog for future climate change. However, how terrestrial ecosystems responded to this extreme warming remains uncertain. We integrate a dynamic global vegetation model with a carbon-isotope ma... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Poe, J., Huntzinger, D., Riley, W. J., Wells, J., Schuur, E. A., et al. (2026). Informing robust functional relationship benchmarks: an evaluation of the temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration across the Arctic-Boreal region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jg009307 During land model development, simulated carbon dynamics are often benchmarked against observational data sets to evaluate model performance. Functional relationship benchmarks are the relationship between a driving variable (e.g., temperat... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Tree-based modelling of ecosystem services and climate-adaptive silviculture strategies Sundquist, S., Lutz, D., Foster, A. C., Goetz, S.. (2026). Tree-based modelling of ecosystem services and climate-adaptive silviculture strategies. Journal of Applied Ecology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.70404 Climate change-driven disturbances are producing shifts in forest composition and productivity, which may reduce biodiversity as well as threaten the economic security and safety of nearby communities. Adaptive management is a potential sol... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Atmospheric oxygen constraints on Southern Ocean productivity and drivers of carbon uptake Jin, Y., Stephens, B., Long, M., Manizza, M., Lovenduski, N. S., et al. (2026). Atmospheric oxygen constraints on Southern Ocean productivity and drivers of carbon uptake. Nature Geoscience, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-01944-z Ocean net primary production fixes dissolved carbon into organic matter while producing O2, driving the biological carbon pump that contributes to ocean CO2 uptake. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in carbon export, yet its producti... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Restoring dryland water cycles for precipitation feedback and climate stability; a review Norman, L., Pollock, M., Dominguez, F., Crimmins, M., Lawrence, D. M., et al. (2026). Restoring dryland water cycles for precipitation feedback and climate stability; a review. Frontiers in Environmental Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2026.1796710 Drylands across the globe are experiencing intensifying water scarcity, land degradation, and hydroclimatic extremes. This review integrates evidence from multidecadal field studies, hydrologic monitoring, geomorphic and ecological assessme... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Friedel, M., Chiodo, G., Weber, K., Polvani, L. M., Daniel, J. S., et al. (2026). Confirming the substantial contribution of ozone-depleting halocarbon emissions to global warming during the second half of the 20th century. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01398-5 Ozone-depleting halocarbons (OD-HCs) are potent greenhouse gases but can also cause radiative cooling by depleting stratospheric ozone. Previously, global climate models revealed substantial OD-HC-driven warming in the second half of the 20... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Quantifying under-ice phytoplankton blooms in the changing Arctic and Southern Oceans Payne, C., DuVivier, A. K., Krumhardt, K., Lovenduski, N. S., Holland, M. M.. (2026). Quantifying under-ice phytoplankton blooms in the changing Arctic and Southern Oceans. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl121750 Historically, polar marine phytoplankton were thought to primarily grow after the seasonal breakup of sea ice, when there is plentiful light available in the surface ocean. However, observations of substantial productivity under sea ice has... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO, PPC, OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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CMIP7 data request: land and land ice priorities and opportunities Li, Y., Tang, G., O'Rourke, E., Minallah, S., Braga, M., et al. (2026). CMIP7 data request: land and land ice priorities and opportunities. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3129-2026 The Land and Land Ice Theme in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) represents the current understanding of physical processes in land surface ecosystems, hydrology, cryosphere, and their physical interactions with othe... CGD Affiliations: ESP, TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Munoz, P. A. J., Frediani, M. E., Eghdami, M., Rosen, D., Kavulich, M., et al. (2026). The Community Fire Behavior model for coupled fire–atmosphere modeling: implementation in the Unified Forecast System. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3035-2026 There is an increasing need for simulating the evolution of wildland fires. The realism of the simulation increases by accounting for feedbacks between the fire and the atmosphere. These coupled models combine a fire behavior model with a r... CGD Affiliations: CSEG Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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CMIP7 data request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities Dingley, B., Anstey, J. A., Abalos, M., Abraham, C., Bergman, T., et al. (2026). CMIP7 data request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2945-2026 This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data unlocking key research avenues in atmospheric science and provides justification for the resources needed to produce ... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2 within a perfect modeling framework Berner, J., Jaye, A. B., Richter, J. H., Glanville, A. A.. (2026). Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2 within a perfect modeling framework. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL120435 The success of numerical weather prediction depends on accurate atmospheric initialization, but at subseasonal lead times, land and ocean initial states become increasingly important. Predictability on these timescales arises from slowly ev... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Little, C. M., Yeager, S., Ponte, R. M., Donatelli, C.. (2026). Blocked coastal propagation inhibits model representation of Southeast United States coastal sea level variability. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118781 Previous studies indicate that climate models misrepresent southeast United States coastal sea level variability but do not propose a definitive mechanistic explanation. Here, by isolating a mode of variability responsible for the majority ... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Duffey, A., Lee, W., Wheeler, L., Irvine, P., Wagman, B., et al. (2026). The global climate response to high-latitude low-altitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (HiLLA-SAI). Earth System Dynamics, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-353-2026 High-latitude low-altitude (HiLLA) Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) would face fewer logistical barriers than high-altitude low-latitude SAI, because it could use repurposed existing large aircraft for deployment. However, relative to ... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP) Wills, R. C. J., Deser, C., McKinnon, K. A., Phillips, A., Po-Chedley, S., et al. (2026). Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP). Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0326.1 Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of inter... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Rocha, M. R., Marques, G. M., Castruccio, F., Deppenmeier, A., Sato, O. T., et al. (2026). Mechanisms controlling the past, present, and future trends in the south Atlantic ocean’s heat storage in a set of CESM2 large ensemble simulations. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0089.1 The South Atlantic Ocean is projected to warm under the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. How much of this warming is due to the ocean or the atmosphere has been an open question. With the hypothesis that changes in the Atlantic meridio... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Guderian, E., Han, W., Webster, P. J., Leung, L. R., Meehl, G. A.. (2026). How well can CMIP6 models represent the observed influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall?. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0194.1 This study evaluates the ability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models to simulate the observed effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on Indian summer mo... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Results of the second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+) Yung, C. K., Asay-Davis, X. S., Adcroft, A., Bull, C. Y. S., Rydt, J. D., et al. (2026). Results of the second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+). The Cryosphere, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026 Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves plays an important role in the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelf cavity-resolving ocean models are a valuable tool for understanding ice shelf-ocean interactions and for simu... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A day in the life of a modern software developer: Using the technology of the 1980's/early 90's Craig, C. A.. (2026). A day in the life of a modern software developer: Using the technology of the 1980's/early 90's. This presentation by Cheryl Craig (NSF NCAR) provides a retrospective analysis of software engineering workflows by contrasting 1980s/early 90s methodologies with modern 2026 capabilities. The study highlights the transition from physical, ... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Conference Material View on OpenSky |
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Interactions of tropical cyclones with global energy and water cycles Ma, Z., Cheng, L., Camargo, S. J., Trenberth, K. E., Lin, I. I., et al. (2026). Interactions of tropical cyclones with global energy and water cycles. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-026-00770-6 Tropical cyclones (TCs) are powerful weather phenomena that substantially alter Earth's energy and water budgets. In this Review, we discuss the interactions of TCs with global energy and water cycles across various spatial and temporal sca... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sun, Y., Oleson, K. W., Zheng, Z.. (2026). Modeling urban traffic heat flux in the Community Earth System Model: Formulation and validation for two test sites. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005435 Vehicular traffic is a major contributor to anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) in urban areas, amplifying urban heat island effects. However, few Earth system models explicitly represent traffic conditions and their associated heat emissions. Th... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 2. Overview of the coupled system Golaz, J. C., Lin, W., Zheng, X., Xie, S., Roberts, A. F., et al. (2026). The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 2. Overview of the coupled system. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005302 The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3) represents the latest advancement in Earth system modeling developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Building upon previous versions, E3SMv3 introduces significant updates ac... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Beland, M., Bonan, G. B., Meyers, T. P., Munger, J. W., Kobayashi, H., et al. (2026). Advances in modelling radiative transfer, heat storage and turbulent transport to evaluate CO2, heat and water fluxes over broad-leaved forests: The CanVeg2 model. Global Change Biology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70867 Multilayer canopy models have been developed for several decades, and interest in this model class remains high despite their complexity because of their multiple advantages over big-leaf models. Nowadays, a number of scientific and technol... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Beadling, R. L., Swaminathan, R., Beucher, R., Blockley, E., Brands, S., et al. (2026). Observational data for next-generation climate model evaluation: Requirements, considerations, and best practices. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-25-0079.1 Climate model simulations are an important source of information about our planet's climate system and also enable informed decision-making under different future scenarios. As a new archive of results from the next generation of climate mo... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Ocasio, K. M. N., Dougherty, E. M., Xue, L., Moon, Z. L., Nunez, A., et al. (2026). Advancing weather and climate science in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean: a novel regional multiweek convection-permitting simulation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-25-0023.1 Understanding the weather and climate of Mesoamerica and the Caribbean remains challenging due to complex hydroclimate interactions, limited observations, and poor representation of regional processes in global models. We introduce the Meso... CGD Affiliations: TSS, AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Raghuraman, S. P., Medeiros, B.. (2026). Cloud feedback overestimated in coupled CESM2 simulations relative to AMIP simulations and satellite observations: importance of the pattern effect and implications for climate sensitivity. Environmental Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae5fab The community earth system model 2 (CESM2) has a high equilibrium climate sensitivity due to a large cloud feedback. Understanding whether its cloud feedback is realistic is thus of scientific and societal importance. We show that when CESM... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Numerical water tracers in the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Audette, A., Feldl, N., Singh, H., Heyblom, K. B., Wang, H., et al. (2026). Numerical water tracers in the atmospheric component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005287 Numerical water tracers are implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2. Simulations performed with the water-tag-enabled model for both pre-industrial and future greenhouse gas concentrations reveal a marked increase in... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sahara greening may have diminished mid-holocene atlantic tropical cyclones Ou, Y., Zhang, M., Liu, Y., Zhao, H., Cao, X., et al. (2026). Sahara greening may have diminished mid-holocene atlantic tropical cyclones. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03481-4 While anthropogenic warming is projected to green the Sahara region, the potential impacts on tropical cyclone remain poorly understood. Here we examine the mid-Holocene Sahara greening (characterized by expanded vegetation and reduced dust... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Landrum, L., DuVivier, A., Holland, M. M., Krumhardt, K., Sylvester, Z.. (2026). Challenges in identifying Antarctic coastal polynyas in satellite observations and climate model output to support ecological climate change research. The Cryosphere, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1815-2026 Antarctic coastal polynyas are key components of Antarctic marine ecosystems, influencing light and nutrient availability and open water access for marine predators. Thus, changes in the physical characteristics of polynyas can influence ho... CGD Affiliations: PPC, OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Gregor, K., Meyer, B. F., Gaida, T., Vasquez, V. J., Bett-Williams, K., et al. (2026). Best practices in software development for robust and reproducible geoscientific models based on insights from the Global Carbon Budget's dynamic vegetation models. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2407-2026 Abstract. Computational models play an increasingly vital role in scientific research by enabling the numerical simulation of complex processes. Such models are also fundamental in geosciences. For instance, they offer critical insights int... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Gaps and ways forward in atmospheric blocking and extreme weather research Wang, L., Lu, J., Breeden, M. L., Chen, G., Henderson, S., et al. (2026). Gaps and ways forward in atmospheric blocking and extreme weather research. Nature Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70487-z Atmospheric blocking often results in significant weather extremes and associated impacts such as heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, cold spells, and floods in mid-latitude regions. However, the physical processes behind blocking and associate... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Physical understanding of the extreme global temperature jump in 2023 Mex, J., Cassou, C., Jézéquel, A., Bony, S., Deser, C.. (2026). Physical understanding of the extreme global temperature jump in 2023. Communications Earth and Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03382-6 Global surface air temperature reached unprecedented heights in early boreal fall 2023, surpassing the previous record for year-to-year temperature increase by a significant margin. We attribute most of this temperature jump to the onset an... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Response of the South Asian monsoon to AMOC collapse Li, J., Lutsko, N. J., Tuckman, P., Hu, A., Marshall, J.. (2026). Response of the South Asian monsoon to AMOC collapse. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0552.1 Paleoclimate records indicate substantial decreases in precipitation associated with the South Asian monsoon in response to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) perturbations, yet the underlying mechanisms remain poorly unders... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Reforestation scenarios shape global and regional temperature outcomes Fahrenbach, N. L. S., Hertog, S. J. D., Jäger, F., Lawrence, P. J., Wills, R. C. J.. (2026). Reforestation scenarios shape global and regional temperature outcomes. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03331-3 Large-scale reforestation is a prominent proposed climate mitigation strategy, but its full temperature impact remains poorly understood. Here, we present a systematic comparison of temperature responses to three distinct reforestation pote... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Climate-driven divergence in biophysical and economic impacts of agrivoltaics Jia, M., Peng, B., Guan, K., Lawrence, D. M., DeLucia, E. H., et al. (2026). Climate-driven divergence in biophysical and economic impacts of agrivoltaics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, doi:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2514380123 Increasing global demands for food and energy necessitate innovative land-use solutions. Agrivoltaics, colocating solar photovoltaics with agriculture, shows promise, but its widespread adoption faces complex biophysical and economic trade-... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Present-day tropical precipitation and cloud feedbacks determine future equatorial Pacific trends Stevenson, S., Deser, C., Coats, S., Falster, G., Konecky, B., et al. (2026). Present-day tropical precipitation and cloud feedbacks determine future equatorial Pacific trends. Science Advances, doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aea8070 The equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) zonal gradient has worldwide impacts and is expected to be highly sensitive to future climate change. However, biases in climate models call the reliability of future SST gradient project... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Role of paleogeography on large-scale circulation during the early Eocene Kelemen, F. D., Lohmann, R., Zhu, J., Ahrens, B.. (2026). Role of paleogeography on large-scale circulation during the early Eocene. Climate of the Past, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-505-2026 The configuration of continents and oceans has a major influence on Earth's climate by shaping large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In this study, we investigate the effect of early Eocene paleogeography, specifically from the Ypre... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Tibetan plateau's freshwater bridge shifts the Indian Ocean Dipole to a high-frequency regime Zhao, Y., Ma, Z., Qiao, B., Sun, R., Duan, A., et al. (2026). Tibetan plateau's freshwater bridge shifts the Indian Ocean Dipole to a high-frequency regime. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01362-3 The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts a profound influence on global climate, yet its impact on the Indian Ocean (IO) subsurface structure remains poorly understood. Using Earth system model simulations, we uncover a fundamental physical cascade ... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Tharammal, T., Bala, G., Nusbaumer, J.. (2026). Drivers of the δ18O changes in Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation between the Last Glacial Maximum and pre-industrial period. Climate of the Past, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-427-2026 In this study, we investigate the changes in water isotope ratios in the Indian summer monsoon precipitation (δ18Oprecip) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 ka Before Present) compared to the pre-industrial (PI) period, and the mech... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Foster, A. C., Hawkins, L. R., Kennedy, D., Bonan, G. B., Fisher, R. A., et al. (2026). Contrasting parametric sensitivities in two global vegetation models using parameter perturbation ensembles. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005590 Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensemble... CGD Affiliations: TSS, CAS, CGDAO, ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Externally-forced changes to Southern Hemisphere stratosphere-troposphere coupling variability Butler, A. H., Lim, E. P., Simpson, I. R.. (2026). Externally-forced changes to Southern Hemisphere stratosphere-troposphere coupling variability. Earth's Future, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007334 Stratosphere-troposphere coupling (STC) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) occurs primarily from austral spring to summer, and the dominant mode of variability in this vertical coupling (the "STC mode") represents the timing of the seasonal tr... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Systematic benchmarking of climate models Hassler, B., Hoffman, F. M., Beadling, R., Blockley, E., Huang, B., et al. (2026). Systematic benchmarking of climate models. Reviews of Geophysics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025rg000891 As climate models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need to comprehensively and systematically assess model performance with respect to observations. Given the increasing number and diversity of climate model simulations in us... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Eddies drive meridionally asymmetric upwelling in the equatorial Pacific Whitt, D. B., Bryan, F. O., Kessler, W., Thompson, L., Deppenmeier, A.. (2026). Eddies drive meridionally asymmetric upwelling in the equatorial Pacific. Journal of Physical Oceanography, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-25-0126.1 Climatological equatorial Pacific upwelling has been quantified observationally and reproduced in numerical simulations. However, the fine-scale structure and the processes that drive it remain unclear. A 1/20°-resolution regional ocean sim... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Potential impacts of climate interventions on marine ecosystems Roberts, K. E., Rohr, T., Raven, M. R., Diamond, M. S., Visioni, D., et al. (2026). Potential impacts of climate interventions on marine ecosystems. Reviews of Geophysics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024rg000876 Rising global temperatures pose significant risks to marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and fisheries. Recent comprehensive assessments suggest that large-scale mitigation efforts to limit warming are falling short, and all feasible future cl... CGD Affiliations: TSS, OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Margiotta, E. R., Kennedy, D., Hawkins, L. R., Trugman, A. T.. (2026). Functional diversity in land surface modeling: Where and when does It matter for the terrestrial carbon cycle?. Global Change Biology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70785 Plant functional traits moderate ecosystem responses to climate and exchanges of water and carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, the extent to which diversity in functional traits influences global carbon and hydrolog... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Ecological forecasts highlight opposing effects of long-term climate change on population demography Ventura, F., Sen, B., Che-Castaldo, C., Barbraud, C., Delord, K., et al. (2026). Ecological forecasts highlight opposing effects of long-term climate change on population demography. Ecology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70330 The multifaceted impacts of global climate change on biota challenge our understanding and capability of anticipating the long-term viability of wild populations, which is an emergent property of ecological systems. Using Bayesian integrate... CGD Affiliations: OS, PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The expanding Indo-Pacific freshwater pool and changing freshwater pathway in the South Indian Ocean Chen, G., Han, W., Hu, A., Meehl, G. A., Gordon, A. L., et al. (2026). The expanding Indo-Pacific freshwater pool and changing freshwater pathway in the South Indian Ocean. Nature Climate Change, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1 Understanding ocean freshwater variability is key to assessing the global water cycle and climate change, but changes in freshwater storage and transport remain unclear. Here we show that the South Indian Ocean—a vital conduit for interocea... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Emergent climate change signals within Antarctic sea ice and associated ecosystems Krumhardt, K., Landrum, L., Şen, B., DuVivier, A. K., Levy, M. N., et al. (2026). Emergent climate change signals within Antarctic sea ice and associated ecosystems. Nature Climate Change, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02561-9 Antarctic sea ice is projected to decline with continued global climate change, potentially impacting Antarctic ecosystems on several levels. Here using a series of models, we show that substantial regional and seasonal differences exist in... CGD Affiliations: OS, PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Bonan, G. B., Burns, S., Patton, E. G.. (2026). Beyond surface fluxes: Observational and computational needs of multilayer canopy models – A walnut orchard test case. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110960 Land surface models simulate fluxes exchanged between the land and atmosphere in weather and climate models. The prevailing modeling paradigm uses a big-leaf canopy parameterization that is not vertically-resolved. Multilayer canopy models ... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Zhu, Q., Neumann, N., Fiore, A., Pincus, R., Guan, J., et al. (2026). Uncertain natural emissions dampen the increase in tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) with idealized surface warming. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005248 The hydroxyl radical (OH) defines the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere and determines the lifetime of reactive greenhouse gases, including methane. The response of OH to climate warming is influenced by uncertain and compensating proces... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Bhuyan, D. P., Upadhyaya, P., Pathak, R., Namdev, P., Salunke, P., et al. (2026). Advancing climate services in South Asia: The SARCI framework for actionable climate information and regional capacity building. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0172.1 South Asia, home to over a quarter of the global population, faces escalating climate risks that demand scientifically credible and actionable information. However, existing global climate models exhibit persistent temperature and precipita... CGD Affiliations: CAS, AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |