OpenSky Publications
CGD OpenSky Publications
Select a year, sub-unit, genre, and/or author name to view peer-reviewed publications involving authors from CGD. You can browse the full list of publications and search for specific ones in OpenSky, the open-access repository of scholarly works developed and managed by NSF NCAR Library.
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Blazing a path: Current progress and needs toward improving wildfire prediction Albers, J., Malloy, K., Molina, M., Johnson, A.. (2026). Blazing a path: Current progress and needs toward improving wildfire prediction. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/8cyx-yw96 This issue of US CLIVAR Variations examines wildfire prediction on weather-to-seasonal timescales, framing wildfire as a complex, multi-stage hazard—ignition, spread, containment, and secondary effects like smoke and debris flows—each with ... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Program Newsletter View on OpenSky |
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Si, W., Lee, T., Zeng, W., Nicklas, J., Hu, A., et al. (2026). Robust decision‐making via uncertainty quantification in deep learning models for marine microfossil classification. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026pa005434 Taxonomic identification of marine microfossils such as foraminifera and coccolithophores is essential for reconstructing past oceanographic and climatic conditions. However, this process remains a major bottleneck in paleoclimate research ... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Luo, J., Hess, P. G., Hall, S., Loper, H., Lombardozzi, D., et al. (2026). Agricultural emissions of reactive nitrogen gases from constrained simulations using the community land model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005455 Reactive nitrogen (Nr) gases (NH 3 , N 2 O, and NO) emitted from agricultural fields constitute a substantial portion of the Nr flux from land to the atmosphere. Here, we coupled the Flows of Agricultural Nitrogen (FANv3) with a modified ve... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A glacial fjord box model: derivation and representation of glacially modified water Cordero, T., Bryan, F. O., McClean, J. L., Gille, S. T., Marques, G. M.. (2026). A glacial fjord box model: derivation and representation of glacially modified water. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ms004794 Fjords are a crucial connection between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the ocean, but remain unrepresented at the scale of many Earth System Models. To parameterize mixing within them, we modify a two‐layer estuary box model to include buoyant... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Weak tropical tropospheric OH response to idealized ENSO Zhu, Q., Fiore, A., Pincus, R., Guan, J., Singer, C. E., et al. (2026). Weak tropical tropospheric OH response to idealized ENSO. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122619 The hydroxyl radical (OH) is a key oxidant for methane. Previous studies suggest that OH exhibits interannual variability linked to the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the sign, magnitude, and underlying mechanisms of this response... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Rapid evaluation framework for the CMIP7 assessment fast track Hoffman, F. M., Hassler, B., Swaminathan, R., Lewis, J., Andela, B., et al. (2026). Rapid evaluation framework for the CMIP7 assessment fast track. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-7415-2026 As Earth system models (ESMs) grow in complexity and in volume of output data, there is an increasing need for rapid, comprehensive evaluation of their scientific performance. The upcoming Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the ... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Significance of size‐dependent hygroscopicity parameterization for aerosol‐cloud interactions Gohil, K., Gettelman, A., Asa-Awuku, A.. (2026). Significance of size‐dependent hygroscopicity parameterization for aerosol‐cloud interactions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd045283 Aerosol‐cloud interactions (aerosol indirect effects) are the most significant source of uncertainties in the effective radiative forcing (ERF) due to aerosols which can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Uncertainties in the indirect ... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Optimizing the rainwater harvesting and roof sprinkling system to adapt to urban extreme heat Yu, J., Oleson, K. W., Qin, Y., Zhao, L., Topping, D. O., et al. (2026). Optimizing the rainwater harvesting and roof sprinkling system to adapt to urban extreme heat. Earth's Future, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008876 Roof watering is a novel strategy for reducing air conditioning energy consumption and mitigating excess urban heat, yet its application is often constrained by water availability. To address this challenge, we propose an adaptation strateg... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Henry, H., Wheeler, I., Luchauer, G., Asay, B., Bowles, N., et al. (2026). Adaptive governance during an unprecedented marine heatwave: Case study from the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2025.2504516 In 2023, the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS) faced its most severe marine heatwave on record, lasting from June to October. This event necessitated the first-ever mass evacuation of corals as part of the ongoing efforts under... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sustainable Blue: A participatory spatial decision support system for fishery management Zhang, Z., Song, Z., Chang, P., Tao, J., Petrik, C., et al. (2026). Sustainable Blue: A participatory spatial decision support system for fishery management. Annals of the American Association of Geographers, doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2026.2648341 Improved decision-making capabilities are essential for sustaining fisheries, particularly as fisheries managers must consider the complex interdependencies among fishing efforts, changes in ocean physics and biogeochemistry, and decision-m... CGD Affiliations: TSS, OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Changes in ENSO oscillatory dynamics associated with zonal shifts in air-sea coupling region Molina, B. A., DiNezio, P. N., Deser, C.. (2026). Changes in ENSO oscillatory dynamics associated with zonal shifts in air-sea coupling region. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0074.1 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) oscillates between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases, but observations indicate that this oscillatory behavior is irregular and asymmetric. Using the NCAR Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), we ... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Changing dynamics of the arctic ocean–ice system: drivers, feedbacks, and future trajectories Polyakov, I., Ding, Q., Holland, M. M., Stroeve, J.. (2026). Changing dynamics of the arctic ocean–ice system: drivers, feedbacks, and future trajectories. Reviews of Geophysics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025rg000908 The Arctic is undergoing rapid and disproportionate climate change, driven by tightly coupled interactions among the ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. This review synthesizes current understanding of historical and projected changes in the Ar... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Chen, Z., Jacob, D. J., Lin, H., Balasus, N., Hancock, S. E., et al. (2026). Tropicalwetland methane emissions and trends (2004–2023)inferred from landsat-based inundated vegetation data. Environmental Science & Technology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6c05412 The role of tropical wetlands in the recent rise of atmospheric methane remains unclear. Most models find no significant emission trends, partly because wetlands are defined by surface water extent without distinguishing high-emitting inund... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The TIPMIP earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1 Jones, C., Bossert, I., Dennis, D., Jeffery, H., Jones, C. D., et al. (2026). The TIPMIP earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-6941-2026 We describe a new Earth system model (ESM) experiment protocol, as part of the international Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP) project. We propose this as a protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 7 (C... CGD Affiliations: OS, ESP, PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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McDermid, S. S., Cook, B. I., Singh, R., Harper, A., Lombardozzi, D.. (2026). Twentieth-century north american reforestation as an historical analogue for examining natural climate solutions. Environmental Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae8d3b Regional forests—their avoided conversion, reforestation, and even afforestation—are increasingly invoked as Natural Climate Solutions that can support climate change mitigation goals, particularly at national and subnational scales of deci... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Unifying the QBO, MJO shallow‐to‐deep convection transitions, and mesoscale convective systems Huang, K., Chen, C., Moncrieff, M. W., Richter, J. H.. (2026). Unifying the QBO, MJO shallow‐to‐deep convection transitions, and mesoscale convective systems. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119452 This study investigates Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) convective structures to better understand how the Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) impacts MJO propagation. We find that during the QBO easterly (QBOE) phase, MJO events exhibit conve... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Advancing earth system science with and for the community: shaping NSF ncar's AI strategy Richter, J. H., Harney, L., Haacker, R., Clyne, J. P., Cains, M., et al. (2026). Advancing earth system science with and for the community: shaping NSF ncar's AI strategy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-26-0202.1 Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are rapidly transforming Earth system science (ESS), enabling new approaches to observation, data assimilation, and forecasting across interconnected atmospheric, chemical, hydrological... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Nardi, K., Zarzycki, C., Larson, V. E., Stephens, B., Bryan, G. H., et al. (2026). Assessing the impact of countergradient fluxes on the general circulation in the Community Atmosphere Model. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL121230 Parameterizing boundary layer turbulence in Earth System Models (ESMs) introduces a key source of uncertainty. Here, we explore the impact of implementing a prognostic formulation (PMF) for momentum flux, which permits countergradient (CG) ... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Importance of Spatially Continuous Urban Surface Properties in Urban‐Resolving Earth System Modeling Cheng, Y., Zhao, L., Oleson, K. W., Chakraborty, T., Zhang, K., et al. (2026). Importance of Spatially Continuous Urban Surface Properties in Urban‐Resolving Earth System Modeling. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005573 Accurate representation of urban properties and processes at higher resolutions in global modeling systems is essential for advancing our ability to capture the complexities of urban systems and informing effective resilience strategies. Ho... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Toker, E., Ilicak, M., Danabasoglu, G., Sen, O. L.. (2026). Climatic impacts of a warmer mediterranean sea simulated by the fully coupled community earth system model, version 2 (CESM2). Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0540.1 This study presents a set of process-oriented sensitivity experiments using the state-of-the-art fully coupled Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), for the first time to isolate the role of Mediterranean sea surface temperature ... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The emerging antarctic amplification Wu, Q., Tian, J., Yu, Q., LIU, S., Yang, C., et al. (2026). The emerging antarctic amplification. National Science Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwag343 Qigang Wu, JiKai Tian, Qianyi Yu, Shizuo Li, Chang Yang, Aixue Hu, Lei Zhang; The emerging antarctic amplification, National Science Review, , nwag343, htt CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Siles, M. S., Marin-Moraga, J., Mora, E. S., Alpizar, J. V., Koller, D. V., et al. (2026). Finding refuge in a changing climate: implementing a coral bleaching contingency plan for a reef restoration project in the south pacific of costa rica. Revista de Biología Tropical, doi:https://doi.org/10.15517/0jr52w81 Introduction: The 2023–2024 global coral bleaching event severely impacted coral communities and reefs across the South Pacific of Costa Rica. Understanding coral species and genotype responses to extreme heat stress is critical to improvin... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sun, L., Wills, R. C. J., Deser, C., Herrington, A. R., Simpson, I. R., et al. (2026). Increased model resolution amplifies boreal winter Arctic precipitation and atmospheric circulation response to sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0260.1 The impact of future Arctic sea ice loss on local climate and large-scale atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied, including through the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP). However, the influence of horiz... CGD Affiliations: CAS, AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Atmospheric oxygen constraints on Southern Ocean productivity and drivers of carbon uptake Jin, Y., Stephens, B., Long, M., Manizza, M., Lovenduski, N. S., et al. (2026). Atmospheric oxygen constraints on Southern Ocean productivity and drivers of carbon uptake. Nature Geoscience, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-026-01944-z Ocean net primary production fixes dissolved carbon into organic matter while producing O2, driving the biological carbon pump that contributes to ocean CO2 uptake. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in carbon export, yet its producti... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Restoring dryland water cycles for precipitation feedback and climate stability; a review Norman, L., Pollock, M., Dominguez, F., Crimmins, M., Lawrence, D. M., et al. (2026). Restoring dryland water cycles for precipitation feedback and climate stability; a review. Frontiers in Environmental Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2026.1796710 Drylands across the globe are experiencing intensifying water scarcity, land degradation, and hydroclimatic extremes. This review integrates evidence from multidecadal field studies, hydrologic monitoring, geomorphic and ecological assessme... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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CMIP7 data request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities Dingley, B., Anstey, J. A., Abalos, M., Abraham, C., Bergman, T., et al. (2026). CMIP7 data request: atmosphere priorities and opportunities. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2945-2026 This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data unlocking key research avenues in atmospheric science and provides justification for the resources needed to produce ... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2 within a perfect modeling framework Berner, J., Jaye, A. B., Richter, J. H., Glanville, A. A.. (2026). Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2 within a perfect modeling framework. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL120435 The success of numerical weather prediction depends on accurate atmospheric initialization, but at subseasonal lead times, land and ocean initial states become increasingly important. Predictability on these timescales arises from slowly ev... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Little, C. M., Yeager, S., Ponte, R. M., Donatelli, C.. (2026). Blocked coastal propagation inhibits model representation of Southeast United States coastal sea level variability. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118781 Previous studies indicate that climate models misrepresent southeast United States coastal sea level variability but do not propose a definitive mechanistic explanation. Here, by isolating a mode of variability responsible for the majority ... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP) Wills, R. C. J., Deser, C., McKinnon, K. A., Phillips, A., Po-Chedley, S., et al. (2026). Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP). Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0326.1 Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of inter... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Rocha, M. R., Marques, G. M., Castruccio, F., Deppenmeier, A., Sato, O. T., et al. (2026). Mechanisms controlling the past, present, and future trends in the south Atlantic ocean’s heat storage in a set of CESM2 large ensemble simulations. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0089.1 The South Atlantic Ocean is projected to warm under the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. How much of this warming is due to the ocean or the atmosphere has been an open question. With the hypothesis that changes in the Atlantic meridio... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Guderian, E., Han, W., Webster, P. J., Leung, L. R., Meehl, G. A.. (2026). How well can CMIP6 models represent the observed influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall?. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0194.1 This study evaluates the ability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models to simulate the observed effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on Indian summer mo... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Results of the second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+) Yung, C. K., Asay-Davis, X. S., Adcroft, A., Bull, C. Y. S., Rydt, J. D., et al. (2026). Results of the second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+). The Cryosphere, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-2053-2026 Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves plays an important role in the mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Ice shelf cavity-resolving ocean models are a valuable tool for understanding ice shelf-ocean interactions and for simu... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A day in the life of a modern software developer: Using the technology of the 1980's/early 90's Craig, C. A.. (2026). A day in the life of a modern software developer: Using the technology of the 1980's/early 90's. This presentation by Cheryl Craig (NSF NCAR) provides a retrospective analysis of software engineering workflows by contrasting 1980s/early 90s methodologies with modern 2026 capabilities. The study highlights the transition from physical, ... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Conference Material View on OpenSky |
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Interactions of tropical cyclones with global energy and water cycles Ma, Z., Cheng, L., Camargo, S. J., Trenberth, K. E., Lin, I. I., et al. (2026). Interactions of tropical cyclones with global energy and water cycles. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-026-00770-6 Tropical cyclones (TCs) are powerful weather phenomena that substantially alter Earth's energy and water budgets. In this Review, we discuss the interactions of TCs with global energy and water cycles across various spatial and temporal sca... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sun, Y., Oleson, K. W., Zheng, Z.. (2026). Modeling urban traffic heat flux in the Community Earth System Model: Formulation and validation for two test sites. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005435 Vehicular traffic is a major contributor to anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) in urban areas, amplifying urban heat island effects. However, few Earth system models explicitly represent traffic conditions and their associated heat emissions. Th... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 2. Overview of the coupled system Golaz, J. C., Lin, W., Zheng, X., Xie, S., Roberts, A. F., et al. (2026). The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 2. Overview of the coupled system. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005302 The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3) represents the latest advancement in Earth system modeling developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Building upon previous versions, E3SMv3 introduces significant updates ac... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Sahara greening may have diminished mid-holocene atlantic tropical cyclones Ou, Y., Zhang, M., Liu, Y., Zhao, H., Cao, X., et al. (2026). Sahara greening may have diminished mid-holocene atlantic tropical cyclones. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03481-4 While anthropogenic warming is projected to green the Sahara region, the potential impacts on tropical cyclone remain poorly understood. Here we examine the mid-Holocene Sahara greening (characterized by expanded vegetation and reduced dust... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Landrum, L., DuVivier, A., Holland, M. M., Krumhardt, K., Sylvester, Z.. (2026). Challenges in identifying Antarctic coastal polynyas in satellite observations and climate model output to support ecological climate change research. The Cryosphere, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1815-2026 Antarctic coastal polynyas are key components of Antarctic marine ecosystems, influencing light and nutrient availability and open water access for marine predators. Thus, changes in the physical characteristics of polynyas can influence ho... CGD Affiliations: PPC, OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Gregor, K., Meyer, B. F., Gaida, T., Vasquez, V. J., Bett-Williams, K., et al. (2026). Best practices in software development for robust and reproducible geoscientific models based on insights from the Global Carbon Budget's dynamic vegetation models. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-2407-2026 Abstract. Computational models play an increasingly vital role in scientific research by enabling the numerical simulation of complex processes. Such models are also fundamental in geosciences. For instance, they offer critical insights int... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Gaps and ways forward in atmospheric blocking and extreme weather research Wang, L., Lu, J., Breeden, M. L., Chen, G., Henderson, S., et al. (2026). Gaps and ways forward in atmospheric blocking and extreme weather research. Nature Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-70487-z Atmospheric blocking often results in significant weather extremes and associated impacts such as heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, cold spells, and floods in mid-latitude regions. However, the physical processes behind blocking and associate... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Reforestation scenarios shape global and regional temperature outcomes Fahrenbach, N. L. S., Hertog, S. J. D., Jäger, F., Lawrence, P. J., Wills, R. C. J.. (2026). Reforestation scenarios shape global and regional temperature outcomes. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03331-3 Large-scale reforestation is a prominent proposed climate mitigation strategy, but its full temperature impact remains poorly understood. Here, we present a systematic comparison of temperature responses to three distinct reforestation pote... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Climate-driven divergence in biophysical and economic impacts of agrivoltaics Jia, M., Peng, B., Guan, K., Lawrence, D. M., DeLucia, E. H., et al. (2026). Climate-driven divergence in biophysical and economic impacts of agrivoltaics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, doi:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2514380123 Increasing global demands for food and energy necessitate innovative land-use solutions. Agrivoltaics, colocating solar photovoltaics with agriculture, shows promise, but its widespread adoption faces complex biophysical and economic trade-... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Present-day tropical precipitation and cloud feedbacks determine future equatorial Pacific trends Stevenson, S., Deser, C., Coats, S., Falster, G., Konecky, B., et al. (2026). Present-day tropical precipitation and cloud feedbacks determine future equatorial Pacific trends. Science Advances, doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aea8070 The equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) zonal gradient has worldwide impacts and is expected to be highly sensitive to future climate change. However, biases in climate models call the reliability of future SST gradient project... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Role of paleogeography on large-scale circulation during the early Eocene Kelemen, F. D., Lohmann, R., Zhu, J., Ahrens, B.. (2026). Role of paleogeography on large-scale circulation during the early Eocene. Climate of the Past, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-505-2026 The configuration of continents and oceans has a major influence on Earth's climate by shaping large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In this study, we investigate the effect of early Eocene paleogeography, specifically from the Ypre... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Tharammal, T., Bala, G., Nusbaumer, J.. (2026). Drivers of the δ18O changes in Indian Summer Monsoon precipitation between the Last Glacial Maximum and pre-industrial period. Climate of the Past, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-22-427-2026 In this study, we investigate the changes in water isotope ratios in the Indian summer monsoon precipitation (δ18Oprecip) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 ka Before Present) compared to the pre-industrial (PI) period, and the mech... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Foster, A. C., Hawkins, L. R., Kennedy, D., Bonan, G. B., Fisher, R. A., et al. (2026). Contrasting parametric sensitivities in two global vegetation models using parameter perturbation ensembles. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005590 Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensemble... CGD Affiliations: TSS, CAS, CGDAO, ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Externally-forced changes to Southern Hemisphere stratosphere-troposphere coupling variability Butler, A. H., Lim, E. P., Simpson, I. R.. (2026). Externally-forced changes to Southern Hemisphere stratosphere-troposphere coupling variability. Earth's Future, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007334 Stratosphere-troposphere coupling (STC) in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) occurs primarily from austral spring to summer, and the dominant mode of variability in this vertical coupling (the "STC mode") represents the timing of the seasonal tr... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Systematic benchmarking of climate models Hassler, B., Hoffman, F. M., Beadling, R., Blockley, E., Huang, B., et al. (2026). Systematic benchmarking of climate models. Reviews of Geophysics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025rg000891 As climate models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need to comprehensively and systematically assess model performance with respect to observations. Given the increasing number and diversity of climate model simulations in us... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Eddies drive meridionally asymmetric upwelling in the equatorial Pacific Whitt, D. B., Bryan, F. O., Kessler, W., Thompson, L., Deppenmeier, A.. (2026). Eddies drive meridionally asymmetric upwelling in the equatorial Pacific. Journal of Physical Oceanography, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-25-0126.1 Climatological equatorial Pacific upwelling has been quantified observationally and reproduced in numerical simulations. However, the fine-scale structure and the processes that drive it remain unclear. A 1/20°-resolution regional ocean sim... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Potential impacts of climate interventions on marine ecosystems Roberts, K. E., Rohr, T., Raven, M. R., Diamond, M. S., Visioni, D., et al. (2026). Potential impacts of climate interventions on marine ecosystems. Reviews of Geophysics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024rg000876 Rising global temperatures pose significant risks to marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and fisheries. Recent comprehensive assessments suggest that large-scale mitigation efforts to limit warming are falling short, and all feasible future cl... CGD Affiliations: TSS, OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Margiotta, E. R., Kennedy, D., Hawkins, L. R., Trugman, A. T.. (2026). Functional diversity in land surface modeling: Where and when does It matter for the terrestrial carbon cycle?. Global Change Biology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70785 Plant functional traits moderate ecosystem responses to climate and exchanges of water and carbon between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, the extent to which diversity in functional traits influences global carbon and hydrolog... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Ecological forecasts highlight opposing effects of long-term climate change on population demography Ventura, F., Sen, B., Che-Castaldo, C., Barbraud, C., Delord, K., et al. (2026). Ecological forecasts highlight opposing effects of long-term climate change on population demography. Ecology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.70330 The multifaceted impacts of global climate change on biota challenge our understanding and capability of anticipating the long-term viability of wild populations, which is an emergent property of ecological systems. Using Bayesian integrate... CGD Affiliations: OS, PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The expanding Indo-Pacific freshwater pool and changing freshwater pathway in the South Indian Ocean Chen, G., Han, W., Hu, A., Meehl, G. A., Gordon, A. L., et al. (2026). The expanding Indo-Pacific freshwater pool and changing freshwater pathway in the South Indian Ocean. Nature Climate Change, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02553-1 Understanding ocean freshwater variability is key to assessing the global water cycle and climate change, but changes in freshwater storage and transport remain unclear. Here we show that the South Indian Ocean—a vital conduit for interocea... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Emergent climate change signals within Antarctic sea ice and associated ecosystems Krumhardt, K., Landrum, L., Şen, B., DuVivier, A. K., Levy, M. N., et al. (2026). Emergent climate change signals within Antarctic sea ice and associated ecosystems. Nature Climate Change, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02561-9 Antarctic sea ice is projected to decline with continued global climate change, potentially impacting Antarctic ecosystems on several levels. Here using a series of models, we show that substantial regional and seasonal differences exist in... CGD Affiliations: OS, PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Bonan, G. B., Burns, S., Patton, E. G.. (2026). Beyond surface fluxes: Observational and computational needs of multilayer canopy models – A walnut orchard test case. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110960 Land surface models simulate fluxes exchanged between the land and atmosphere in weather and climate models. The prevailing modeling paradigm uses a big-leaf canopy parameterization that is not vertically-resolved. Multilayer canopy models ... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Zhu, Q., Neumann, N., Fiore, A., Pincus, R., Guan, J., et al. (2026). Uncertain natural emissions dampen the increase in tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) with idealized surface warming. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005248 The hydroxyl radical (OH) defines the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere and determines the lifetime of reactive greenhouse gases, including methane. The response of OH to climate warming is influenced by uncertain and compensating proces... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Tang, W., Kumar, R., Méndez, A. d. M., Ahafianyo, F., Akinsanola, A. A., et al. (2026). The UCAR Africa Initiative: Recent insights, challenges, and opportunities to foster collaborative research for environmental sustainability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-24-0118.1 Africa is increasingly being exposed to the negative impacts of climate and envi- ronmental change, while having less capacity to respond compared to other continents. The vulnerability partially results from unprecedented demographic growt... CGD Affiliations: CAS, TSS, ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Bhuyan, D. P., Upadhyaya, P., Pathak, R., Namdev, P., Salunke, P., et al. (2026). Advancing climate services in South Asia: The SARCI framework for actionable climate information and regional capacity building. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0172.1 South Asia, home to over a quarter of the global population, faces escalating climate risks that demand scientifically credible and actionable information. However, existing global climate models exhibit persistent temperature and precipita... CGD Affiliations: CAS, AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Balancing backscatter and diffusion in a 1/4° forced global ocean model Yassin, H., Marques, G. M., Grooms, I.. (2026). Balancing backscatter and diffusion in a 1/4° forced global ocean model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS005462 Mesoscale ocean eddies in 1/4 global ocean models lie near the grid scale and are overdamped by viscosity, leading to reduced eddy kinetic energy, weak sea surface height variability, and mean‐state biases. Backscatter has been proposed to ... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Response of the south asian monsoon to AMOC collapse Li, J., Lutsko, N. J., Tuckman, P., Hu, A., Marshall, J.. (2026). Response of the south asian monsoon to AMOC collapse. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0552.1 Paleoclimate records indicate substantial decreases in precipitation associated with the South Asian monsoon in response to Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) perturbations, yet the underlying mechanisms remain poorly unders... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Tibetan plateau's freshwater bridge shifts the indian ocean dipole to a high-frequency regime Zhao, Y., Ma, Z., Qiao, B., Sun, R., Duan, A., et al. (2026). Tibetan plateau's freshwater bridge shifts the indian ocean dipole to a high-frequency regime. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01362-3 The Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts a profound influence on global climate, yet its impact on the Indian Ocean (IO) subsurface structure remains poorly understood. Using Earth system model simulations, we uncover a fundamental physical cascade ... CGD Affiliations: ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Unforced interannual-to-decadal variability of global radiation imbalance: Role of low clouds Miyamoto, A., Xie, S., Deser, C.. (2026). Unforced interannual-to-decadal variability of global radiation imbalance: Role of low clouds. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0320.1 The global-mean radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (GMTOA) is an important indicator of the climate response to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. Natural variability perturbs this radiation imbalance on interannual and decadal... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Detectability of phytoplankton biomass extremes using simulated satellite chlorophyll observations Clow, G. L., Lovenduski, N. S., Levy, M. N., Lindsay, K., Mogen, S. C., et al. (2026). Detectability of phytoplankton biomass extremes using simulated satellite chlorophyll observations. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121347 Extreme open-ocean phytoplankton events can influence marine ecosystems, yet their global occurrence, drivers, and consequences remain poorly understood. Most large-scale studies rely on satellite chlorophyll, which provides only a surface ... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Representation of surface mixed-layer eddies affects the large-scale ventilation of the global ocean Uchida, T., Bodner, A., Reichl, B. G., Adcroft, A. J., Fox-Kemper, B., et al. (2026). Representation of surface mixed-layer eddies affects the large-scale ventilation of the global ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl116872 Surface mixed-layer dynamics play a crucial role in modulating the climate as it is the oceanic layer that directly communicates with the atmosphere. The resolution of global ocean models is, however, often restricted to (Formula presented.... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Kavoo, T., Kennedy, D., Kumar, S., Wieder, W., Lombardozzi, D.. (2026). Reducing uncertainties in coupled carbon-water cycle predictions—A parameter perturbation ensemble experiment at three NEON tower sites in the southeastern United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd043780 A newly developed simulation tool, the National Center for Atmospheric Research–National Ecological Observatory Network (NCAR-NEON) modeling framework, offers a promising opportunity to investigate parameter sensitivity in climate models. T... CGD Affiliations: CAS, CGDAO, TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Akker, T. v. d., Lipscomb, W., Leguy, G. R., Berg, W. J. v. d., Wal, R. S. v. d.. (2026). The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse. Cryosphere, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026 Recent observations reveal that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is rapidly thinning, particularly at its two largest outlet glaciers, Pine Island Glacier and Thwaites Glacier, while East Antarctica remains relatively stable. Ice sheet model pr... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Akker, T. v. d., Lipscomb, W., Leguy, G., Berg, W. J. v. d., Wal, R. S. v. d.. (2026). Competing processes determine the long-term impact of basal friction parameterizations for Antarctic mass loss. Cryosphere, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-1217-2026 Previous studies do not agree on the magnitude of the influence of basal friction laws in sea-level projections. We use the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) to show that the sensitivity of the projected sea level rise to the choice of basal... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Water Isotope Model Intercomparison Project (WisoMIP): Present‐day climate Bong, H., LeGrande, A. N., Dee, S., Zhu, J., Cauquoin, A., et al. (2026). Water Isotope Model Intercomparison Project (WisoMIP): Present‐day climate. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044985 We present the first results of the Water Isotope Model Intercomparison Project (WisoMIP), with Phase 1 focused on modern simulations (1979-2023) from a suite of isotope‐enabled atmospheric general circulation models nudged to ERA5 reanalys... CGD Affiliations: PPC, AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A database of databases for Common Era paleoclimate applications Evans, M., Lücke, L., Fan, K., Zhu, F.. (2026). A database of databases for Common Era paleoclimate applications. Earth System Science Data, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-1185-2026 We present a merged database of five curated databases (DoD2k version 2.0.0) developed for Common Era (1–2000 A.D.) paleoclimate research. A toolkit to create the database is also provided and leverages codebases developed by individual dat... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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An Antarctic ecosystem value index to quantify ecological value across trophic levels and over time DuVivier, A. K., Krumhardt, K., Landrum, L., Sylvester, Z., Şen, B., et al. (2026). An Antarctic ecosystem value index to quantify ecological value across trophic levels and over time. Nature Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69011-0 The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is one of the fastest changing regions on the planet and an emerging resource frontier for fisheries. Here, we present the Antarctic Ecosystem Value Index created by merging ecosystem information across ... CGD Affiliations: PPC, OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Inter-comparison of deep learning models for flood forecasting in Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin Mengistu, G. M., Semie, A., Diro, G. T., Benti, N. E., Gbobaniyi, E., et al. (2026). Inter-comparison of deep learning models for flood forecasting in Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin. Water, doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/w18030397 Flood events driven by climate variability and change pose significant risks for socio-economic activities in the Awash Basin, necessitating advanced forecasting tools. This study benchmarks five deep learning (DL) architectures, Convolutio... CGD Affiliations: PPC Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Jia, M., Peng, B., Guan, K., Lawrence, D. M., DeLucia, E. H., et al. (2026). Assessing the impact of agrivoltaics on water, energy, and carbon cycles using the Community Land model version 5. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005092 Agrivoltaics, combining agriculture with photovoltaic systems, offers a promising solution to address land-use conflict between food and energy production. However, the complexities of agrivoltaics and its effects on the water-energy-carbon... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Ogden, F. L., Jennings, K., Clark, E. P., Coon, E., Cosgrove, B., et al. (2026). The NextGen Water Resources Modeling Framework:Community innovation at the intersection of hydrologic,data and computer sciences. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.70089 Hydrologic science lacks a comprehensive theory of stormflow generation, preventing the development of a general hydrologic model. Studies show that models focusing on dominant local processes often outperform general models that rely on pa... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Physics-informed, differentiable hydrologic models for capturing unseen extreme events Song, Y., Sawadekar, K., Frame, J. M., Pan, M., Clark, M. P., et al. (2026). Physics-informed, differentiable hydrologic models for capturing unseen extreme events. Water Resources Research, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040414 Recently, a hybrid framework combining machine learning (ML) and process-based equations, termed differentiable modeling, has shown comparable accuracy to pure ML models while offering enhanced interpretability and spatial generalizability.... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Tang, G., Wood, A., Newman, A. J., Kirstetter, P. E., Mueller, C., et al. (2026). High-resolution ensemble precipitation and temperature datasets for CONUS based on a probabilistic geospatial estimation approach. Journal of Hydrology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134761 Precipitation and temperature datasets are essential for diverse applications, yet existing high-resolution products often lack robust uncertainty quantification and transparent, reproducible station processing. This study addresses these g... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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On the robustness of modeled non-local temperature effects of historical land use changes Jäger, F., Sieber, P., Simpson, I. R., Lawrence, P. J., Lawrence, D. M., et al. (2026). On the robustness of modeled non-local temperature effects of historical land use changes. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005227 Historically, large areas have been deforested, croplands and rangelands have expanded, and the irrigation area has grown substantially. These land use and land cover changes have altered land surface properties, driving changes in near-sur... CGD Affiliations: CAS, TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Jay, K. R., Wieder, W., Elmendorf, S. C., Spasojevic, M. J., Suding, K. N.. (2026). Plant functional trait uncertainty can outweigh climate scenario uncertainty in tundra ecosystem productivity. New Phytologist, doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.70740 Predicting shifts in species composition with global change remains challenging, but plant functional traits provide a key link to scale from plant to community and ecosystem levels. The extent to which functional trait shifts may mediate e... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Canadian net forest CO<sub>2</sub> uptake enhanced by heat drought via reduced respiration Dong, G., Jiang, F., Zhang, Y., Ju, W., Piao, S., et al. (2026). Canadian net forest CO2 uptake enhanced by heat drought via reduced respiration. Nature Geoscience, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-025-01875-1 The response of net forest carbon uptake to warm extremes remains elusive. The year 2023 was at the time 'the hottest year on record' globally, with Canada's forests experiencing warm anomalies of above 2 °C and unprecedented drought and wi... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Wang, X., Small, R. J., Chang, P., Lyu, M., Fu, D.. (2026). Precipitation response to mesoscale SST variability: Insights from observations and multi‐resolution models. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL120156 Mesoscale sea surface temperature (SST) variability influences the marine atmosphere boundary layer (MABL), affecting near-surface winds and turbulent heat fluxes. This study examines precipitation response to mesoscale SST forcing using sa... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Löfverström, M., Herrington, A. R., Born, A., Beadling, R.. (2026). Towards a realistic representation of katabatic storms in Greenland in reanalysis data and global earth system models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD044674 Katabatic storms in southeastern Greenland are fierce, density-driven, downslope wind events with substantial implications for the local and downstream weather conditions and climate. This study presents a detailed assessment of their repre... CGD Affiliations: PPC, AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Constraining climate model projections with observations amplifies future runoff declines Kim, H., Lehner, F., Dagon, K., Lawrence, D. M., Swenson, S., et al. (2026). Constraining climate model projections with observations amplifies future runoff declines. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03213-8 Climate models are increasingly used to inform water availability projections at regional scales. However, the models’ own runoff sensitivities—the change in runoff per unit change of precipitation or temperature—are often biased, which can... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO, ESP, TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Kovac, S. A., Caspi, A., Seaton, D. B., Zietlow, D., Bryans, P., et al. (2026). Citizen CATE 2024: Extending totality during the 8 April 2024 total solar eclipse with a distributed network of community participants. Solar Physics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-025-02588-9 The Citizen CATE 2024 next-generation experiment placed 43 identical telescope and camera setups along the path of totality during the total solar eclipse (TSE) on 8 April 2024 to capture a 60-minute movie of the inner and middle solar coro... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Toward realistic prognostic modeling of the methane chemical loss Mirrezaei, M. A., Gaubert, B., Arellano, A. F., Fernandez, R. P., Ortega, I., et al. (2026). Toward realistic prognostic modeling of the methane chemical loss. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045079 Global modeling of the hydroxyl radical (OH) remains a significant challenge, pushing chemistry‐climate models to rely on idealized scenarios with methane () concentrations rather than emission fluxes. In this study, we employ an emission‐d... Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Land surface model underperformance tied to specific meteorological conditions Page, J. C., Kauwe, M. G. D., Pitman, A. J., Towers, I. R., Arduini, G., et al. (2026). Land surface model underperformance tied to specific meteorological conditions. Biogeosciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-263-2026 Abstract. The exchange of carbon, water, and energy fluxes between the land and the atmosphere plays a vital role in shaping global change and extreme events. Yet our understanding of the theory of this surface-atmosphere exchange, represen... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Trenberth, K. E.. (2026). Tracking OHC provides essential climate information—preface to the special topic on ocean heat content changes. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-5008-2 The author's career evolution from meteorology to climate science underscores the ocean's role as the planet's primary heat sink. While Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) drive immediate weather, Ocean Heat Content (OHC) is the definitive metr... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Xu, G., Chang, P., Danabasoglu, G., Castruccio, F., Yeager, S., et al. (2026). Storm-permitting climate modeling highlights storm frequency's role in future extreme sea level changes along US East and Gulf coasts. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01274-8 Storm-induced coastal extreme sea levels (ESLs) pose severe threats to infrastructure, economies, and ecosystems. However, projecting future ESL changes is hindered by the coarse resolution of climate models used in assessment reports, whic... CGD Affiliations: OS, ESP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Surfing transport of buoyant objects observed in the nearshore Rainville, E. J., Thomson, J., Moulton, M., Derakhti, M.. (2026). Surfing transport of buoyant objects observed in the nearshore. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jc022422 Free-drifting buoyant objects, including plastics, marine debris, and organisms, move with the wind, waves, and surface currents. These objects also surf on breaking waves; this process adds to the total transport of the objects and can con... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Kim, D. W., Kwon, Y. O., Frankignoul, C., Deser, C., Danabasoglu, G., et al. (2026). A synoptic view of the atmospheric circulation response to SST anomalies in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension Region: the importance of latent heating structure. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01340-9 The complex nature of extratropical air-sea coupling has hampered a detailed physical understanding of how the atmosphere responds to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region. Departing from t... CGD Affiliations: CAS, OS, AMP Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Deser, C., Yeager, S., Phillips, A., Rosenbloom, N., Zhao, X.. (2026). Northern Hemisphere wintertime teleconnections from the 2023-24 El Nino offset by background SST trends. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0227.1 El Niño of 2023–24 ranked among the top five strongest El Niño events of the past 70 years, yet wintertime atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropical Northern Hemisphere were markedly weaker than anticipated. Here, we conduct a series... CGD Affiliations: CAS, ESP, CGDAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Ocean heat content sets another record in 2025 Pan, Y., Cheng, L., Abraham, J., Trenberth, K. E., Reagan, J., et al. (2026). Ocean heat content sets another record in 2025. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-026-5876-0 Global ocean warming continued unabated in 2025 in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations and recent reductions in sulfate aerosols, reflecting the long-term accumulation of heat within the climate system, with conditions evolv... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO, CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Perspectives on systematic cloud microphysics scheme development with machine learning Lamb, K. D., Singer, C. E. E., Loftus, K., Morrison, H., Powell, M., et al. (2026). Perspectives on systematic cloud microphysics scheme development with machine learning. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005341 Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small-scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate m... CGD Affiliations: CGDVISITORS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments Screen, J. A., Audette, A., Blackport, R., Deser, C., England, M., et al. (2026). Causes and consequences of Arctic amplification elucidated by coordinated multimodel experiments. Communications Earth and Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03052-z Human-induced warming is amplified in the Arctic, but its causes and consequences are not precisely known. Here, we review scientific advances facilitated by the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. Surface heat flux changes a... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Is the high ECS in CESM2 degrading transient climate change projections over the 21st century? Duffy, M., Simpson, I. R., Medeiros, B., Zhu, J., McCluskey, C. S., et al. (2026). Is the high ECS in CESM2 degrading transient climate change projections over the 21st century?. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms004967 The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) has a higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) than previous versions of CESM and many other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models. Relatedly, CESM2 simulates too-cold ice-age an... CGD Affiliations: AMP, CAS, PPC, TSS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Processes controlling the South American monsoon response to climate change Chadwick, R., Good, P., Garcia-franco, J. L., Alves, L. M., Hart, N., et al. (2026). Processes controlling the South American monsoon response to climate change. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-25-0012.1 Future projections of South American (SA) monsoon precipitation from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) show a consistent drying during the early part of the monsoon season (September–November), which is also seen in ... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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McKinnon, K. A., Simpson, I. R.. (2025). Observed and modeled trends in downward surface shortwave radiation over land: Drivers and discrepancies. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl119493 CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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A low-order data-driven model of ENSO diversity Martinez-Villalobos, C., Capotondi, A., Deser, C., Dewitte, B., Holbrook, N. J., et al. (2025). A low-order data-driven model of ENSO diversity. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118649 Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) are widely used data-driven tools for studying El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, standard LIMs struggle to simulate the observed asymmetry and diversity of ENSO events. Observations reveal that stron... CGD Affiliations: CAS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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Modeling the global budget of tropospheric bromine and its impact on atmospheric chemistry Roozitalab, B., Apel, E. C., Hornbrook, R., Fernandez, R., Gaubert, B., et al. (2025). Modeling the global budget of tropospheric bromine and its impact on atmospheric chemistry. Bromine, a reactive halogen radical, plays a significant role in ozone depletion upon reaching the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Furthermore, it can affect tropospheric chemistry cycles and the atmosphere’s oxidation capacity. T... CGD Affiliations: AMP Publication Genre: Conference Material View on OpenSky |
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Advancing global-scale pollen emission modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM3) Leung, D. M., Zhang, Y., Tilmes, S., Foster, A. C., Barth, M., et al. (2025). Advancing global-scale pollen emission modeling in the Community Earth System Model (CESM3). We implement a modeling scheme for global anemophilous (wind-driven) pollen emissions in the Community Earth System Model version 3 (CESM3). Anemophilous pollen is a type of primary biological aerosol particle (PBAP) that can trigger respir... CGD Affiliations: TSS Publication Genre: Conference Material View on OpenSky |
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Subsurface marine heatwaves intensity projected to decrease in the Caribbean Sea under RCP8.5 Sala, J., Giglio, D., Capotondi, A., Seijo-Ellis, G., Castruccio, F.. (2025). Subsurface marine heatwaves intensity projected to decrease in the Caribbean Sea under RCP8.5. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl117730 Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—extreme ocean temperature anomalies—are increasing in frequency and intensity globally, yet their vertical structure and drivers remain underexplored in the Caribbean Sea (CS), a region of critical ecological and soc... CGD Affiliations: OS Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |
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The influence of short-lived halogens on atmospheric chemistry and climate Saiz-Lopez, A., Mahajan, A. S., Abbatt, J., Bobrowski, N., Brown, S. S., et al. (2025). The influence of short-lived halogens on atmospheric chemistry and climate. Nature, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09753-x Observations have demonstrated the ubiquity of short-lived halogens (SLHs)—defined as organic and inorganic chlorine, bromine and iodine compounds with an overall atmospheric lifetime of less than 6 months—in the global atmosphere. They are... CGD Affiliations: CGDAO Publication Genre: Article View on OpenSky |