Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change
Chang, P., Xu, G., Kurian, J., Small, R. J., Danabasoglu, G., et al. (2023). Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00681-0
| Title | Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change |
|---|---|
| Genre | Article |
| Author(s) | P. Chang, G. Xu, J. Kurian, R. Justin Small, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Stephen Yeager, Frederic Castruccio, Q. Zhang, Nan Rosenbloom, P. Chapman |
| Abstract | Upwelling along ocean eastern boundaries is expected to intensify due to coastal wind strengthening driven by increasing land-sea contrast according to the Bakun hypothesis. Here, the latest high-resolution climate simulations that exhibit drastic improvements of upwelling processes reveal far more complex future upwelling changes. The Southern Hemisphere upwelling systems show a future strengthening in coastal winds with a rapid coastal warming, whereas the Northern Hemisphere coastal winds show a decrease with a comparable warming trend. The Bakun mechanism cannot explain these changes. Heat budget analysis indicates that temperature change in the upwelling region is not simply controlled by vertical Ekman upwelling, but also influenced by horizontal heat advection driven by strong near-coast wind stress curl that is neglected in the Bakun hypothesis and poorly represented by the low-resolution models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The high-resolution climate simulations also reveal a strong spatial variation in future upwelling changes, which is missing in the low-resolution simulations. |
| Publication Title | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Publication Date | Jan 23, 2023 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00681-0 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7h135xf |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| CGD Affiliations | OS, CGDAO, CCR |