The Effect of Upper Ocean Freshwater on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Lee
Laws, K., Gonzalez, A., Yu, L., Chen, Y., Neale, R.. (2025). The Effect of Upper Ocean Freshwater on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Lee. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/q16v-6x64
| Title | The Effect of Upper Ocean Freshwater on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Lee |
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| Genre | Manuscript |
| Author(s) | Keloni Laws, A. Gonzalez, L. Yu, Y. Chen, Richard Neale |
| Abstract | Accurate predictions for tropical cyclones (TCs) are crucial for mitigating their negative impacts. This is especially true when storms undergo rapid intensification (RI) over the open ocean, where the upper layers can become stably stratified under freshwater input from rivers or precipitation. These freshwater inputs can create barrier layers (BLs), which inhibit deep water mixing and allow more energy to fuel TC intensification. While recent research has highlighted the role of river-formed BLs, few have quantified the role of BLs due to precipitation. Currently, BLs are not a prominent part of TC prediction due to limited observations. In this study, we investigate the role of river- and precipitation-formed BLs in Category 5 Hurricane Lee (2023), a storm that underwent poorly-forecasted RI and was preceded by above average precipitation. To better understand the role of upper ocean stratification in the region, we utilize Argo floats in tandem with satellite-based observations of variables that help determine salinity and ocean heat content. Extremely favorable ocean heat conditions were present for the RI, aided by freshwater input that contributed to the formation of a BL in the region of RI. The Amazon-Orinoco freshwater plume and precipitation events from prior tropical systems coincided with the BLs present in the region of RI. To test the significance of salinity-driven stratification on the temperature profiles and ocean heat content, we perform experiments with the 1D vertical mixing Price-Weller-Pinkel model. Our results suggest that freshwater BL formation may be critical for accurately predicting the RI of cyclones. |
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| Publication Date | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Publisher's Version of Record | https://doi.org/10.5065/q16v-6x64 |
| OpenSky Citable URL | https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7fn1bp6 |
| OpenSky Listing | View on OpenSky |
| CGD Affiliations | AMP |