Urbanization Projections

This research program was closed as of August 2018
Website content is current as of that date

Urbanization is a key aspect of development relevant to studies of mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. Researchers in NCAR’s Integrated Assessment Modeling group developed urbanization scenarios for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using the urbanization projection model component of the Community Demographic Model (CDM). This set of long-term, global urbanization projections produces country-specific outcomes for the percent urban population consistent with each SSP narrative, covering a plausible range of uncertainty. Read more about the global urbanization projections and internal consistency of related demographic assumptions, and download the SSPs urbanization projection data set below.

Urbanization projection Data Set

Cite as

Jiang L., O’Neill B.C., 2015. Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global Environmental Change. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.008.

Download the urbanization projection data set for the SSPs in Excel format.